Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s NFL Week 9 slate.
4:05 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 44) at Carolina Panthers
The Colts (3-5) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Saints 38-27, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Panthers (1-6) just posted their first win of the season, beating the Texans 15-13 and winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Indianapolis. However, despite receiving 74% of bets the Colts haven’t moved off of -2.5. Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would see them move from -2.5 to -3 or -3.5. This lack of movement signals a sharp line freeze on Carolina, with pros more concerned about handing out a better number on the contrarian home dog. Carolina is only receiving 26% of bets but 36% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. The Panthers also warrant teaser consideration (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
4:25 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5, 37.5)
The Giants (2-6) just fell to the Jets 13-10, pushing as a 3-point home dog. Meanwhile, the Raiders (3-5) have dropped two straight and just lost to the Lions 26-14, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. The Raiders cleaned house earlier this week, firing coach Josh McDaniels. Former Giants LB Antonio Pierce will be the new Raiders interim coach. This line opened with Las Vegas listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Raiders at home. However, despite receiving 60% of bets we’ve seen Vegas fall from -3 to -1.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the Giants. Vegas just fell from -2 to -1.5 over the past 24-hours, further indicating late breaking movement in favor of the road dog. Shorts road dogs +3 or less are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season and 112-87 ATS (56%) since 2019. Daniel Jones is 26-19 ATS (58%) in his career as a dog, including 16-7 ATS (70%) as a road dog. Brian Daboll is 12-6 ATS (67%) as a dog as head coach of the Giants. New York is also in the teaser zone (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will get the start at quarterback for the Raiders.
8:20 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 50.5)
The Bills (5-3) have rotated wins and losses in their last four games just edged the Buccaneers 24-18 but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bengals (4-3) have won four of their last five games and just crushed the 49ers 31-17, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Pros have gotten down on the Bengals, steaming Cincinnati up to a 2.5-point home favorite. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on Cincinnati. Late money is also breaking the Bengals’ way, as Cincinnati has moved from -1.5 to -2.5 over the past 24-hours. The Bengals are receiving 68% of bets but 76% of money, signaling a combination of both sharp and public support. Cincinnati also has value as a short favorite in a high total game (50.5), with the higher expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. Those looking to follow the smart line move but wary of laying 2.5-points could instead target the Bengals on the moneyline at -135. Joe Burrow is 13-6 ATS (68%) as a short favorite of 6-points or less. The Bengals beat the Bills 27-10 in last night’s divisional round of the playoffs.
