Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday October 29

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston. 

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 8 slate…

 

1 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-8.5, 46.5)

The Patriots (2-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 29-25 win over the Bills, winning outright as 7.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (5-2) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Eagles 31-17 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Dolphins listed as high as a 12.5-point home favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with Miami. However, despite receiving a majority of bets we’ve seen the Dolphins fall from -12.5 to -8.5. Miami has also fallen from -9.5 to -8.5 over the past 24-hours. This signals smart money grabbing the points with New England, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog. Divisional dogs are 17-16 ATS (52%) this season and 179-140 ATS (56%) since 2020. This is also the second matchup between this teams. Historically, the second matchup between divisional opponents tends to be a tighter game due to the familiarity. Miami beat New England 24-17 back in Week 2. 

 

1 p.m. ET: New York Jets (-3, 35.5) at New York Giants

The Jets (3-3) have won two straight games and just upset the Eagles 20-14, winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Giants (2-5) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 14-7 win over the Commanders, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with the Jets listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and currently 68% of bets are laying the points with the Jets. However, despite this lopsided betting the Jets haven’t budged off -3. Normally, if a team is getting two-thirds of bets or more you would see the line move in their favor. The fact the line hasn’t moved toward the Jets signals a sharp line freeze on the Giants, with book seemingly more concerned about contrarian Giants bettors taking the points. Brian Daboll is 12-6 ATS (67%) as a dog in his career. Pros have also leaned under, as the total has fallen from 36.5 to 35.5. The under is receiving 43% of bets but 69% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Non-conference unders are 22-11 (67%) this season. The forecast calls for low 50s with 7 MPH winds and possibly some rain. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45.5) at Denver Broncos

The Chiefs (6-1) have won six straight games and just brushed aside the Chargers 31-17, covering as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos (2-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 19-17 win over the Packers, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover Kansas City. However, despite receiving 86% of bets we’ve seen the Chiefs fall from -8.5 to -7. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Kansas City to begin with? Because wiseguys have gotten down on the Broncos plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog. Denver is only receiving 14% of bets, making the Broncos the top contrarian play of the day. Denver has value as a divisional dog (56% ATS since 2020). Brad Allen, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (55% ATS).