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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Sunday’s NFL Week 5 slate…
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 43) at Indianapolis Colts
The Titans (2-2) just crushed the Bengals 27-3, easily winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Colts (2-2) just fell to the Rams 29-23 in overtime, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Currently 55% of bets are backing the Colts. However, despite Indianapolis receiving a slight majority of bets, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Titans -2.5. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on Tennessee, with pros backing the Titans on the road. Tennessee is only receiving 45% of bets bet 56% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Road favorites are 14-11 ATS (56%) this season and 19-8 (70%) straight up. It’s also notable that RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return from injury yet the line still moved toward Tennessee. The Titans have the edge on defense, allowing 336 yards per game compared to 413 for the Colts. Tennessee is only giving up 70 yards on the ground compared to 127 for Indianapolis. Those looking to follow the sharp action but wary of laying the -2.5 could instead target the Titans on the moneyline at -135.
1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 42)
The Texans (2-2) have won two straight and just upset the Steelers 30-6, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons (2-2) have lost two straight and just fell to the Jaguars 23-7 in London, failing to cover as 3-point neutral site dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as high as a 3.5-point home favorite. It looked as though wiseguys liked Houston early in the week, as the line fell from Falcons -3.5 to -1. However, once it bottomed out near a pick’em, that’s when we saw heavy sharp buyback on Atlanta at a reduced price, with pros steaming the Falcons back up to -2.5. The Texans are the trendiest dog of the day, receiving 74% of bets. Despite this fact, all late movement is breaking back toward the contrarian favorite Falcons. This indicates late sharp action on Atlanta, with pros fading the trendy dog. The Falcons are receiving only 26% of bets but 47% of money, a notable sharp bet split. This is also a buy-low spot on the Falcons (who have lost two straight) vs a sell-high spot on the Texans (who have won two straight). Atlanta is -135 on the moneyline.
4:25 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 43.5)
The Jets (1-3) have lost three straight and just fell to the Chiefs 23-20 but managed to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Broncos (1-3) just won their first game of the season, defeating the Bears 31-28 and pushing as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Denver listed as a 3-point home favorite. Early in the week, it appeared as though sharps liked the Jets as we saw the line fall from Denver -3 to -1.5. However, once it bottomed out at -1.5 that’s when pros bought back on the Broncos hard, steaming Denver back up to -2.5. Essentially, all late movement is siding with the Broncos. It’s also notable that 71% of bets are backing New York, making the Jets one of the trendiest dogs of the day. Typically, pros like to fade trendy dogs due to their heavy public support. Denver is only receiving 29% of bets, giving them excellent contrarian favorite value. This is also a bit of a buy-low, sell-high play as Zach Wilson looked good last week and the Jets covered against the mighty Chiefs while, on the flip side, the public still remembers the Broncos giving up 70-points at home to the Dolphins a few weeks ago. Denver has the Mile High home field edge as well as the far better offense, averaging 25 points per game compared to 15.5 for New York. The Broncos are -140 on the moneyline.
More Sharp Moves
Vikings +6.5 to +3.5 vs Chiefs
Rams +6.5 to +4 vs Eagles
Saints +2.5 to +1 at Patriots
Ravens -2.5 to -4.5 at Steelers
