Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46)
The Bengals (5-4) just saw their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Texans 30-27 and losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (7-3) also had a four-game winning streak snapped last week, losing to the Browns 33-31 and failing to cover as 6-point home favorites.
This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with the road dog Bengals. However, despite 61% of bets backing Cincinnati we’ve seen the line move further to Baltimore -3 to -3.5. It even briefly touched Ravens -4 throughout the week. Why would the oddsmakers move the line further to Baltimore if the public is pounding Cincinnati? Because pros have laid the points with the Ravens at home, triggering sharp reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite. In other words, pros are fading the trendy dog Bengals.
Baltimore has notable contrarian value, receiving only 39% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 86-72 ATS (54%) since 2005, with the short week benefiting the "better" team that doesn’t have to travel. Favorites are 76-69 ATS (52%) this season. Primetime dogs are 13-16 ATS (45%) this season but 105-80 ATS (57%) since 2020. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is 17-8 ATS (68%) as a dog and 13-5 ATS (72%) off a loss.
We’ve also seen this total rise from 44 to 46, signaling some respected money steaming the over. Currently 58% of bets and 68% of money is going over. However, it’s hard to bet the over now that the line has risen two points. Much of the value is gone and you are now getting the worst of the number, especially with so many profitable system matches pointing towards the under. Unders are 89-60 (60%) this season. Primetime unders are an incredible 25-7 (78%). Outdoor divisional unders are 96-65 (60%) since 2021. The Ravens are 6-4 to the under this season and 18-9 (67%) to the under since the start of last season. Both teams rank in the bottom half in terms of pace of play, with the Ravens ranking 18th and the Bengals 19th in terms of offensive plays per game.
The forecast calls for low 40s, clear skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds. The lead ref, Adrian Hill, has historically favored road teams (55% ATS) and unders (60%).
