Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 44)
The Giants (1-1) got crushed by the Cowboys 40-0 in the season opener but rebounded with a 31-28 come-from-behind win over the Cardinals in Week 2. Meanwhile, the 49ers (2-0) are undefeated through two games, beating the Steelers 30-7 in the opener and then taking down the Rams 30-23 last week.
This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public isn’t concerned by the big spread and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with San Francisco at home. With 74% of bets backing the 49ers, we’ve seen San Francisco move from -9.5 to -11. Once the line reached 11, we saw sharp buyback on the Giants +11, dropping the line back to 10.5 where it rests now.
The Giants offer buy-low contrarian value, receiving only 26% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game, as well as a full point of inflated line equity off the opener. New York is only receiving 26% of bets but 39% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split. Dogs are 19-12 ATS (61%) so far this season. Road dogs are 13-6 ATS (68%) this season and 438-347 ATS (56%) since 2018. Primetime dogs are 3-3 ATS this season but 95-67 ATS (59%) since 2020. Daniel Jones is 26-16 ATS (62%) as a dog in his career, including 16-5 ATS (76%) as a road dog. Brian Daboll is 10-3 ATS (77%) as a dog as head coach of the Giants. Kyle Shanahan is just 25-30 ATS (46%) as a favorite and 2-4 ATS (33%) as a favorite of 10-points or more.
The total opened at 43.5 and quickly got bet up to 45 early in the week. But since that time we’ve seen a steady diet of sharp under money, dropping the total back down to 44. Some shops are even inching down to 43.5. The under is receiving 39% of bets and 52% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Primetime unders are 4-2 this season and 126-82 (61%) since 2019.
Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS) and unders (56%). The forecast calls for low 70s, clear skies and mild 5 MPH wind at Levi’s Stadium.
