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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Wild Card playoff games.

4:30 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns (-2, 44.5) at Houston Texans

The Browns (11-6) are the 5-seed and rested their starters in the season finale, falling to the Bengals 31-14 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (10-7) are the 4-seed and just beat the Colts 23-19 in Week 18, covering as 1.5-point road favorites and winning the AFC South.

This line opened with the Browns listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public is all over Cleveland with 70% of bets laying the points with the Browns. Early in the week, we saw the Browns rise from -2 to -3. However, since that time we’ve seen steady sharp buyback on the Texans plus the points, dropping the line back down to the opener of Browns -2. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze and late reverse line move to the home dog Texans.

Houston is only receiving 30% of bets, making them the top contrarian play of Wild Card Weekend. Playoff dogs are 43-29 ATS (60%) since 2017, with Wild Card dogs an ever better bet at 20-10 ATS (67%). Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Texans here, are 34-17 ATS (67%) since 2017. If both teams missed the playoffs the previous year, the dog is 12-3 ATS (80%) since 2017. Houston is also in a prime teaser spot (+2 to +8), passing through multiple key numbers. Teasing dogs up 6-points in the Wild Card round has gone 24-6 ATS (80%) since 2017. CJ Stroud is 5-2 ATS (71%) as a dog. The Texans are 6-3 at home while the Browns are 3-5 on the road. 

We’ve also seen some respected money hit the over, raising the total from 43.5 to 44.5. Currently 64% of bets and 65% of money is taking the over. 

Player Prop(s) to Consider: David Njoku Over 54.5 receiving yards (-125). Njoku has gone over this number in 6 of his last 8 games. Njoku ranks 2nd in targets on the Browns with 123, trailing only Amari Cooper (128). 

Nico Collins Over 73.5 receiving yards (-130). Collins has gone over this number in 4 of his last 6 games. He just caught 9 passes for 195 yards against the Colts last week in a must-win game. Collins leads the Texans in targets with 109. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 43.5)

The Dolphins (11-6) are the 6-seed but lost their final two games of the regular season, falling to the Bills 21-14 in Week 18 and failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Chiefs (11-6) are the 3-seed and finished the regular season winning three of their last four games, beating the Chargers 13-12 in Week 18 and winning outright as a 3.5-point road dog despite resting their starters. 

This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros have laid the points with Kansas City, steaming the Chiefs up from -3.5 to -4.5. Kansas City is receiving 55% of bets but 68% of money, indicating a relatively split public but also respected sharp money. One big factor to consider here is the weather. The forecast calls for frigid negative 5-degree temperatures with 15 MPH winds. The Dolphins, a warm weather team, are 0-9 straight up and 2-7 ATS when the temperature is less than 40 degrees since 2017. Miami also has several key injuries, with Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle and several other key players questionable. 

Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 45 to 43.5. Currently 78% of bets and 80% of money is sweating the under, signaling both Pro and Joe support. Playoff unders are 36-25 (59%) since 2017. This also qualifies as a windy under. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a playoff game the under is 10-4 (71%) since 2017. 

Player Prop to Consider: Rashee Rice Over 62.5 receiving yards (-125). Rice has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games. In his last game he caught 5 passes for 127 yards against Cincinnati (Rice rested in Week 18). Rice is second on the Chiefs in targets with 102, trialing only Travis Kelce (121). 

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