AFC East
The AFC East seems destined to be ruled by a singular entity for as long as it exists. For over 15 years, the New England Patriots dominated the division. Since 2020, this has been the Buffalo Bills’ division to lose.
Buffalo enters the 2025 season looking for a sixth consecutive division title. The Bills’ run is second only to that of the Chiefs, who have won the AFC West for nine straight seasons. The betting odds suggest it is likely Buffalo wins its sixth AFC East title, as they are the biggest division favorite (-260) in the league.
There is no real challenger for the Bills this season.
New England is a team which has some strong upside, but it is all dependent on a second-year quarterback – Drake Maye – taking a meaningful step forward in his development. The Patriots have the second-highest win total in the division (8.5) but from a power rating standpoint it pales in comparison to that of the Bills.
Miami was once widely considered to be the strongest opposition to Buffalo in the division, but the Dolphins’ trajectory is heading south. Mike McDaniel is coaching for his job by all accounts. Key role player Tyreek Hill could be on the move and Jalen Ramsey has already been traded. Tua Tagovailoa – despite signing a contract extension last summer — is on thin ice.
New York owns the fourth-lowest division odds of any team in the league. The Jets have talent, but the franchise is stuck in an eternal rebuild and is relying on Justin Fields to lead its offense in 2025.
Should Buffalo not win the AFC East this season, it would be an utter disaster. When compared to the other contenders, one could argue the Bills are not among the strongest. But in the AFC East, Buffalo is Thanos with all of the Infinity Stones.
Inevitable.
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Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is a contender once again. Josh Allen is still in a Bills uniform, Joe Brady is calling plays and the AFC East is extremely weak. It all sets up for another double-digit win season and a crack at a championship.
Offense
Allen, the reigning MVP, led the league in EPA per play and finished third in RDSDM’s EPA+CPOE composite metric. He totaled 4,262 yards and 40 touchdowns despite not having a receiver which surpassed 850 yards. Kahlil Shakir – Buffalo’s leading receiver from last season – as well as Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid all return.
The offensive line is a strength for the Bills as well. Allen was pressured on just 176 of his dropbacks, which was 16th-most in the league. It’s also a solid run-blocking unit which ranked eighth last season in adjusted line yards per carry (4.68). The group led the way for James Cook, who returns after rushing 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns in the regular season.
The Bills finished second in EPA per play last season, and almost the entire offense returns for the 2025 season. The offense might not finish as high as second in the league, but it should be a top 10 unit at a minimum this season.
Defense
Buffalo’s biggest area of improvement will need to be on defense. Specifically, its pass defense. The Bills ranked 22nd in opponent EPA per pass in 2024. The secondary allowed the fifth-most air yards (2,449) and the eighth-most passing touchdowns (28). As a whole, Buffalo was 26th in Eckel rate – a metric which measures the percentage of drives that end with a touchdown or have a first down snap within the 40 yard line.
The Bills spent multiple draft picks on the secondary, including first-round cornerback Maxwell Hairston. This will likely be a below average defense on the backend once again, but there is at least clear effort on the part of the front office to make it better.
Up front, Buffalo is in much better shape. Greg Rousseau is coming off a season in which he totaled 63 pressures and nine sacks. Matt Milano has played fewer than 400 snaps over the last two seasons, he is one of the best outside linebackers in the league when healthy. The Bills measured out well against the run in 2024. They were fifth in opponent EPA per rush and adjusted line yards per carry allowed (3.95). That should be similar to the 2025 output for this team, and it could perhaps be even better if Milano turns in a full season.
Outlook
Buffalo has a win total of 11.5 and it plays in one of the weakest divisions in football. It has the fifth-easiest schedule in the league as well. The Bills’ consensus win total is 11.5 with varying juice. At most shops, bettors will lay a price on the Over, but it is worth the price, as Buffalo has everything it needs for a strong season once again.
Pick: Over 11.5 Wins
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Miami Dolphins
This has the makings of a pivotal season for Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. McDaniel has only one double-digit win season, is 0-2 in the playoffs and coming off his first losing season at the helm. If Miami doesn’t achieve something special, we could be discussing a new regime in South Beach.
Offense
For the fourth time in his five seasons in the NFL, Tua Tagovailoa failed to play more than 13 games in the regular season in 2024. Even worse, Tagovailoa arguably regressed in his time on the field last year. PFF ranked him as the 25th passer among qualified quarterbacks. His 6.1 ADOT was the lowest of his career and his 7.2 yards per attempt was the lowest since his second season. Tagovailoa must bounce back this season, but it is uncertain whether his top target – Tyreek Hill – will even be on the roster, as the trade rumors around Hill are abound.
Miami’s offensive line is also a mess on paper. Only two offensive linemen on the roster played over 1,000 snaps. Aaron Brewer is the only one among them that had a pass blocking grade higher than 70 (70.2). That does not bode well for a team which has an injury-prone signal-caller under center.
If Hill is gone, and Tagovailoa misses time, this team could once again finish in the bottom half of the league in offense — as it did last season.
Defense
The secondary is going to be the biggest problem for the Dolphins. Jevon Holland departed in free agency, and Jalen Ramsey was traded before the season began. Kader Kohou – a 2022 undrafted free agent – is the most consistent corner on the roster with Ramsey gone.
Miami will have to lean on its front seven, but that group also has some massive questions. Specifically, at edge rusher. Bradley Chubb missed the entirety of 2024 recovering from knee injuries. Jaelan Phillips tore his ACL last season. Chop Robinson – who totalled 56 pressures and seven sacks – is the most consistent pass-rusher on the roster right now.
The Dolphins only face six teams that finished 10th or higher in EPA per play on offense last season. Even so, this unit looks like a lock to take a massive step back.
Outlook
There is a lot of noise around Miami in the offseason, and that is generally a bad sign for a team. The head coach is fighting for his job, and the quarterback could be doing the same without one of his best receivers. The Dolphins have the ninth-easiest schedule in the NFL, but all signs are pointing south. Miami is a solid bet to not only go Under its win total, but alternate numbers should be in play as well.
Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
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New England Patriots
For the second time in as many seasons, the New England Patriots have a new coaching staff. It is also another former linebacker, as Mike Vrabel takes over the once proud franchise. The front office spared no expense for Vrabel. New England doled out the most money in free agency this offseason, in hopes of accelerating the team’s growth.
Offense
The heights which this offense can reach depend on the development of second-year quarterback Drake Maye. He averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt in 2024 and finished 20th among other signal-callers in EPA/CPOE composite. He also displayed a multifaceted game and finished ninth among all quarterbacks in rushing yards (421).
Maye will need to be better protected than he was last season – he was pressured on 37.4% of his dropbacks. The front office did its part in improving the offensive line with the selection of Will Campbell fourth overall, and the signing of both Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses.
The skill positions still need some work. Stefon Diggs comes in after a busy offseason in which he was recovering from a torn ACL so his effectiveness is unknown. But Josh McDaniels is one of the best offensive coordinators in the league. He helped get the most out of Mac Jones his rookie season, and he will likely be able to raise the floor of this group as a whole. Even if this team crawls up to average, it is a massive step forward. It very well could do that this season.
Defense
Cornerback Christian Gonzalez was named to the AP All-Pro second team in his first full season in the league. He finished with a 78.2 PFF coverage grade, intercepted two passes and broke up seven in 978 snaps. New England gave him some help on the other side by bringing in Carlton Davis from Detroit. Jabrill Peppers played well in limited playing time last season. If he can continue that over a larger sample size, the secondary could be a real strength.
New England’s run defense needs to improve – it finished 28th in adjusted line yards per carry allowed – and the additions of Robert Spillane at linebacker and Milton Williams at defensive tackle should go a long way toward doing just that. Keion White led the team in pressures (45) and sacks (6), but he desperately needs some assistance. K’Lavon Chaisson could help alleviate some of that pressure, but this is still a group that will likely struggle when it comes to rushing the passer.
Outlook
New England’s arrow is undoubtedly pointing up. Whether or not it can meet the expectations set by the betting market is the question. Despite winning only four games last season, the win total for the Patriots is 8.5 at every shop. It does have the second-easiest schedule in the league, and the coaching staff is widely considered to be an upgrade. Given how weak the division around them looks – outside of Buffalo – it is certainly plausible this team meets the expectations set upon it this season.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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New York Jets
It is a season of change for New York after a disastrous 2024 campaign. Aaron Rodgers is gone and a new coaching staff and quarterback are in place. A new Aaron – Aaron Glenn – is now charged with bringing the franchise back to glory. The former Lions defensive coordinator has a somewhat talented roster which should allow for some optimism in the Big Apple.
Offense
The Jets’ new general manager went with the cheap option at quarterback for the 2025 season and brought in Justin Fields. On 197 dropbacks, Fields posted a 71.0 PFF offensive grade, threw five touchdowns to just one interception and – most importantly to some – went 4-2 as a starter. The former first-round pick will learn under offensive coordinator and former Lions passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand.
Detroit has been one of the best offenses in the league in recent years, but the system has had a more traditional dropback passer in Jared Goff. How Engstrand uses a much more dynamic athlete in Fields will be the biggest question for the Jets.
Fields’ skill-position weapons are solid. Garrett Wilson has posted three straight 1,000-yard seasons despite subpar quarterback play. Breece Hall has averaged 5.5 yards per touch in his three seasons in the league. New York has a dynamic athlete at each of the key positions. If Engstrand plays his cards right, this offense could sneak up on the NFL this season.
Defense
New York finished 2024 21st in opponent EPA per play. It was a shocking drop from its third-place finish the season prior. Injuries were a part of the regression – FTN has the Jets defense with the sixth-most adjusted games lost to injury – but so too was poor play.
The biggest culprit was Sauce Gardner. The two-time First-Team All-Pro posted the lowest PFF defensive grade of his career (70.2) and defended just nine passes.
No edge rusher outside of Will McDonald had more than 23 pressures, and New York finished 24th in total takeaways (17) a year after finishing ninth.
The positive news for this unit is that if players like Gardner revert back to a higher level of play, this is a group that could make a sizable leap in the rankings. Glenn is a great defensive mind that can get the most out of his defense. Bettors should expect improvement from the Jets defense this season, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see it back inside the top 10 in 2025.
Outlook
New York has the lowest win total in the AFC East. It has an average schedule and the most important position is in the hands of a quarterback that is on his third team in as many seasons. However, this roster is not devoid of talent. If Fields can provide a steady hand on offense, and the key defensive pieces find their footing again, this could be a team that achieves more than is expected by the betting market.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
