The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season features the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Buffalo Bills at M&T Bank Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Bills vs. Ravens

When: Sunday, September 29th at 8:20 pm ET

Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland

Channel: NBC/Peacock

Bills vs. Ravens Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, September 27th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Ravens -135, Bills +114

Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-112), Bills +2.5 (-108)

Total: Over 46.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Ravens Analysis

Our NFL betting splits page shows that most of the best in this game are on the Bills, but Buffalo has moved from +1.5 to +2.5. That means that the sharp money is likely on Baltimore, and that’s where I’m going in this one.

There’s really not much to hate about this Bills team. Buffalo is first in the league in EPA per play (0.297) and seventh in EPA per play allowed (-0.161). However, the Bills haven’t faced a team as good as the Ravens. And that’s especially true when it comes to Buffalo’s defense taking on the Baltimore offense. The Bills are actually just 27th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.021). Well, this isn’t the right matchup for a team that can’t stop the run. The Ravens are first in football in Rush EPA per play (0.151).

Don’t be surprised if Derrick Henry turns in a big performance in this one. Henry is coming off his best game in a Baltimore jersey, as he rushed for 151 yards and two scores in a road win over Dallas. He’s looking comfortable in this Todd Monken offense, and he’s definitely benefiting from the type of attention Lamar Jackson demands. It’s just hard to imagine the Bills slowing down the Ravens running game. And if Buffalo has to commit extra resources to stopping the run, Jackson will burn the Bills with his arm. Jackson has been the second-most valuable quarterback in football this year, according to nfelo‘s Value vs. Average Starter numbers.

Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in football this season, and he’s the betting favorite to win MVP this year. But this is a spot in which you can generally trust a John Harbaugh team to show up defensively. Baltimore is just 26th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.065) this year, and it feels like a matter of when, not if, the team gets back into the Top 10. The Ravens were second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.127) a year ago, and losing Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney isn’t enough for the entire group to drop to the bottom of the league. This has just been a slow start, and the sample size is also extremely small.

One thing that works in the Ravens favor in this game is that the Bills no longer have highly-talented receivers. The loss of Stefon Diggs might feel like addition by subtraction right now, but these are the games in which it helps to have an elite wideout. The Bills could struggle to create separation, making life difficult on Allen. Baltimore defensive coordinator Zach Orr will also be happy to let Allen throw short passes, which is something Buffalo has been doing all year. As long as the Ravens don’t get beat over the top, they’ll love their chances.

As far as the total goes, this thing has been moving up and a lot of the action is on the Over. I’d personally lean Under with two teams that are in the Top 10 in rushing play percentage, but I don’t have a strong feeling either way. The only thing I’m rushing to bet in this one is the Baltimore side.

Bills vs. Ravens Player Props

Derrick Henry To Score A TD (-140)

Henry is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (281) and tied for first in the league in rushing touchdowns (4). The 247-pound back is also coming off his best game with the Ravens, and he’s now facing a beatable rushing defense. Henry’s rushing yards prop is tempting at 67.5, but Buffalo could throw the kitchen sink at stopping him. That would potentially mean less yards than expected, but I don’t see the Bills stopping him in the red zone.

Ultimately, I love Baltimore to win this game and don’t see it happening without Henry chipping in quite a bit. That said, I’ll deal with a little juice on this play.

Bills vs. Ravens Pick

Baltimore is 27-19 against the spread when facing teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or higher under Harbaugh. These are the types of games in which he really flexes his brain muscles. And I’m not even going to lay the points here. I’m just paying up a bit to play the Ravens on the moneyline, and this will be a bigger play for me — which you’ll find in my Week 4 NFL best bets. I love the Ravens to impose their will on this game with the rushing attack, and I trust their defense — at least when it comes to crunch time. It also doesn’t hurt that Baltimore had a full week of rest. Buffalo played on Monday night last week.

Pick: Ravens ML (-130)

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