On Monday, November 9, we’ll see two of the best teams in football battle it out at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, as the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings host the 6-1 Buffalo Bills. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 9 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: See how our experts are betting Bills-Vikings!
How To Watch Bills vs. Vikings
When: Monday, November 9 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Channel: ESPN
Bills vs. Vikings Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Sunday, November 8. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bills -175, Vikings +145
Spread: Bills -3 (-118), Vikings +3 (-102)
Total: Over 43.5 (-118), Under 43.5 (-102)
Bills vs. Vikings Analysis
When it was announced that Kyler Murray wouldn’t be playing in this game, the spread barely moved. In fact, depending on where you shop, you might have seen Minnesota move from +3.5 to +3. That suggests there wasn’t much faith in Murray to begin with, and some of the sharpest bettors may even view Carson Wentz as an upgrade.
As of Sunday evening, our betting splits pages showed one-sided public love for the Bills. At Circa Sports, though, a majority of the tickets were on Buffalo while the handle leaned toward Minnesota. That can be a sign of sharp action on the Vikings.
I normally look to align myself with the sharps, but I can’t bring myself to back Wentz in a matchup with Josh Allen. Maybe I would have felt differently had I not played Joe Fagnano on Thursday night.
The Vikings do have the league’s best defense, with Brian Flores’ unit allowing an EPA/play of -0.189 this season. Minnesota should make Allen a little more uncomfortable than he usually is. Still, with this game being played in a dome, Allen should lead plenty of successful drives. That means Wentz will need to make a ton of plays without making costly mistakes.
Ultimately, I landed on the Over. Back in May, when weekly lines were released for the season, this total was 48.5. It’s now down to 43.5 at most shops.
Think what you want about Minnesota’s ability to shut down opposing offenses, but Buffalo leads the league in EPA/play (0.175). It isn’t often that Allen’s unit gets completely stifled, and I don’t see it happening here.
Meanwhile, I have concerns about Wentz, but he still has a good group of weapons as he prepares to face a defense that ranks 26th in EPA/play allowed (0.085). There should be plays for him to make, especially with the Bills having no good answer for Justin Jefferson.
The Over has also been a great bet in Bills games since Joe Brady became head coach. Buffalo is 5-2 to the Over this season, including 3-0 on the road.
Bills vs. Vikings Player Props
LEAN: Wentz Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Looking through our OptaAI player prop projections, one play that stood out was Wentz to go Over his rushing total. Our projections have him finishing with 10.97 rushing yards, giving the Over a sizable edge of 23.1%.
Wentz isn’t known as a running quarterback, but he has always been quite mobile. Against a disorganized defense, perhaps he’ll see some green and take off for a good gain.
Bills vs. Vikings Pick
I’m as high on Minnesota’s defense as anyone. That unit played a big role in my decision to back the Vikings to win the NFC North before the season. However, Allen has been such a reliable Over quarterback throughout his career that a total of 43.5 doesn’t feel right with him in the game.
I’d understand it in nasty playing conditions, but I can’t see a low-scoring game with him in a dome.
Bet: Over 43.5 (-118)
