🏈 Can the Bills Keep the Favorites Rolling?
Week 9 has been a playground for favorites, who went 13-1 straight up and 10-3-1 ATS — including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS on the road.
Will that dominance extend to Monday night when the Bills (-3) visit Minnesota (8:15 p.m. ET)?
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen points out that the betting market moved from Minnesota +3.5 to +3 when the Vikings announced Carson Wentz would start instead of Kyler Murray (hamstring).
“I normally look to align myself with the sharps, but I can’t bring myself to back Wentz in a matchup with Josh Allen. Maybe I would have felt differently had I not played Joe Fagnano on Thursday night.”
Instead of the side, Zach finds other plays for your consideration.
Matt Youmans is a bit more optimistic about the move to Wentz.
“Wentz is not going to walk into the huddle, turn into the 1999 version of Kurt Warner with the St. Louis Rams and transform the Vikings into ‘The Greatest Show on Turf.’ But maybe Wentz will be more effective as a passer than Murray.”
Wentz is one of six Week 9 starting quarterbacks who didn’t start in Week 8. The first five went 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS.
NFL Rewind / Fast Forward
Well, I don’t think I will feel compelled to rewatch that Bears game.
Despite five turnovers, Chicago beat the Bucs 27-24 but didn’t cover the closing -6.5. The game went Over the total of 47.5. Overs lead 8-6 in Week 9.
Key injuries: Puka Nacua will undergo testing Monday to determine the severity of his knee injury; Patrick Mahomes was diagnosed with an elbow sprain; Drew Lock suffered an oblique injury and his Week 10 availability is TBD. No word on whether Sam Darnold (quad/rib) will return.
With Seattle’s quarterback situation uncertain, the Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites against the Raiders in Week 10. Adam Burke sizes up the early lines.
» Adam Burke’s Week 10 Opening Lines Report
Heads up: The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday.
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🏆 Contest Update: The Opposite of Carnage
What’s the opposite of carnage? In Circa Survivor, 609 of 610 entries advanced to Week 10.
The lone elimination came on the Falcons’ 34-17 loss to the Bengals. The entry Doozy-9 lived up to its name with that pick. (But the contestant still has one entry left.)
Circa Grandissimo: All three remaining entries advanced — one on the Bengals and two on the Seahawks.
Circa Million: The full-field top-five consensus picks are 1-3 ATS with Minnesota pending (20-23-2 on the season, per Dave Tuley): Saints -3 (L), Vikings +3.5 (pending), Texans -4.5 (W), Panthers +2.5 (L) and Bears -6 (L).
Our experiment compiling a consensus from the Circa Million leaders revealed one intriguing difference: the contenders liked Tampa Bay +6 more than the full field did.
Circa Friday Football Invitational: It was a tough Week 9 for VSiN’s 25 handicappers, who combined to go 73-94-1 (43.7%), with seven selections still pending.
Weston Stradtman led the way at 6-1, while Matt Ste. Marie went 5-1 with one pick remaining.
Alex White remains atop the season standings at 42.5 points despite a 2-5 week, but Chris Macero (42) has closed to within half a point after going 4-3.
» Circa Friday Football Invitational standings
EdgeBoost Average Joe: VSiN Pro subscriber Mike Wurmay leads the contest with a 47-16 record (74.6%) through nine weeks.
» EdgeBoost Average Joe standings
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🏈 College Football: Week 11 Power Ratings
After an eventful weekend of college football, Adam Burke has updated his power ratings and identified six games where his numbers show value against the line.
» Six potential values in Adam’s Week 11 power ratings
Adam also examines the early Week 11 line movement.
» Adam Burke’s Week 11 Betting Report
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🏒 NHL: Draisaitl’s Third-Period Scoring Streak
Leon Draisaitl and the Edmonton Oilers host the New York Rangers on Monday, and VSiN’s Jonathan Davis has an intriguing player prop.
Draisaitl’s 16 goals are tied for the league lead with Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov. He has scored in three straight games — and in each of his last five games with a goal, he has also scored in the third period.
For the season, Draisaitl has scored a third-period goal in seven of the 11 games in which he has found the net.
Jonathan’s play: Draisaitl to score in the third period (+370).
Doc’s Sports: Strike Point Sports
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