Average Joe Contest
A really big week is on tap in the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest. The start of the fourth and final quarter is here in Week 16, as the NFL regular season winds down and some crapshoot bowl games were offered on the college football side of things. We did include the three Christmas NFL games in this week’s eligible selections, so there were actually 19 NFL games to pick from.
While time may be running out on the contest, it isn’t too late for you to give it a shot. This FREE contest includes a $500 weekly prize for the winner, which you can, ahem, “boost” to $1,000 by using the promo code VSiN to sign up with an account at Edge Boost. The first year of the Edge Boost/VSiN Average Joe Contest has been tremendously successful and we hope that you’ve enjoyed it as well.
Check out the Average Joe Contest Rules and set a reminder to sign up before Week 17 because there’s still time to snag a weekly prize, even if the quarterly prize is no longer on the table.
NFL Picks Week 16
Let’s look at the most popular Week 16 NFL Picks for both sides and totals (note: I will exclude the Christmas games, as the pick counts were very low). With lots of playoff implications and preconceived notions about how invested some teams are, it was a pretty predictable week on the pick front.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 16:
Texans -14 (87%) vs. Raiders
If there’s one thing that looking at the Average Joe Contest splits has shown us, it’s that no line is too big for the masses. At least those who took Houston got 14 instead of having to add the hook on at 14.5. It’s fair to wonder if this play would have been less attractive at that number, but let’s be honest. The Texans might only need to score 15 points to cover this price.
The Raiders are as bad as bad gets and they might luck themselves into the No. 1 overall pick with a little help. Joes actually prefer both the Giants and Titans this week at +3 in their respective games and that could be good news for the Raiders.
Of the 273 picks on this game, 237 took the Texans.
Lions -7 (81%) vs. Steelers
Like I said, no line is high enough. The Steelers control their own destiny in the AFC North, but they aren’t finding many supporters for this trip across the Rust Belt to the Motor City. The Lions aren’t exactly setting the NFL world ablaze, as they haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 4 and 5 against the Browns and Bengals. They are looking for the AFC North sweep here, though, and Joes think they’ll get it.
Not having to deal with T.J. Watt probably had something to do with it, as Watt was announced inactive long before this week’s deadline.
Of the 413 picks on this game, 336 took the Lions.
Bengals -4 (72%) vs. Dolphins
We actually had a pretty good split in a lot of games this week, but another favorite and another preconceived notion hits the board here. I think a lot of people just expect that Quinn Ewers is going to be trash. It’s entirely possible, but he does face a Cincinnati defense that was trending towards being one of the worst of all-time for a good chunk of the season.
Joes are also assuming that Joe Burrow is in a bounce back spot after getting shut out for the first time in his career over 74 starts. Burrow’s commitment to football has been questioned a lot lately due to all of the injuries and some inferences about his demeanor. I’ll say this – this one feels risky with Miami still playing hard despite a bevy of changes on the horizon.
Of the 278 picks on this game, 200 took the Bengals.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 16:
As usual, not much activity on totals overall, but one of the biggest pick discrepancies of the season came this week in the totals department.
Falcons/Cardinals Over 48 (97%)
I’ve been tracking this since before the midpoint of the season and I think 97% is the most lopsided total that I’ve encountered. If not the most lopsided, then it’s definitely No. 2. Apparently nobody expects defense to be played in the desert this weekend when the Battle of the Birds commences in Glendale.
I do vaguely recall a game where six brave souls took the Under in a game and it actually cashed. The offer is still open for a free beverage of your choosing if we run into each other at Circa sometime.
Of the 266 picks on this game, 257 are on the Over.
Bengals/Dolphins Over 47.5 (86%)
Stop me if you’ve read this before, but the Bengals are involved in an Over that was among the most popular picks. As much as pickers don’t seem to support Ewers from a side standpoint, they do seem to expect a certain level of success against an atrocious Cincinnati defense. Frankly, it’s a tough point to argue against, especially in a good-weather game in South Florida.
Overs featuring the Bengals or Cowboys show up here regularly. I’m actually surprised to see the Over in the Chargers/Cowboys game only at 78%, so not high enough to make this list, but you can bet we’ll see one or both of those teams show up here the next two weeks with a consensus Over.
Of the 95 picks on this game, 82 are on the Over.
Buccaneers/Panthers Over 46 (84%)
Kind of a dud here to round things out, as there are only 55 combined picks on this total, but the Over is the next highest by percentage. Something I found pretty fascinating this week while doing all of my research is that in the four weeks that Shedeur Sanders has started, the only QB worse than him in EPA + CPOE Composite (expected points added + completion percentage over expected) is Baker Mayfield.
It seems Joes feel as though Baker and the boys can get back on track here in Charlotte in a mammoth NFC South game. We shall see if that is indeed the case or not, but we have a lot of faith in the Bucs offense and it would appear we have some faith in Bryce Young as well.
Of the 55 picks on this game, 46 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
