AFC West
For as long as VSiN has been in existence, the Chiefs have won the AFC West. The streak of division titles for Kansas City is now at nine, and during the stretch from 2016 to 2024, coach Andy Reid’s teams averaged 12.4 regular-season wins. It has become trendy for some bold handicappers to step out on a limb and predict “this will be the year” the Chiefs slip, fall back to the pack and finish second. It never happens, and the limb snaps as those handicappers take the fall. It will happen eventually, and could it be this year?
The truth is Kansas City addressed its flaws in the offseason and reloaded a roster that’s improved from a year ago. It’s also true the other three teams are on the rise and closing the gap, making this arguably the strongest division in the NFL.
Jim Harbaugh is not conceding anything to Kansas City, and neither are Sean Payton and Pete Carroll. The division’s four head coaches all have Super Bowl experience, with Reid winning three in the past six seasons. In Harbaugh’s first season in Los Angeles, the Chargers finished 11-6, four games behind the 15-win Chiefs. In Payton’s second season in Denver, the Broncos finished 10-7 and reached the playoffs. In Carroll’s first season in Las Vegas, the Raiders are eyeing a return to relevance after sinking somewhere near rock bottom.
In a division featuring four quality quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes remains the undisputed king. Since becoming the starter in Kansas City, Mahomes owns a 35-5 record against division opponents — 13-1 against the Broncos, 12-2 against the Raiders and 10-2 against the Chargers. However, Mahomes’ 5-0 record in division games last season included three wins by exactly two points. The Chiefs remain odds-on division favorites (-122) at Circa Sports, followed by the Chargers (+300), Broncos (+350) and Raiders (18-1).
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Denver Broncos
Sean Payton is giving the Broncos what they paid for, and they paid him a lot at $18 million per year. In Payton’s second season as coach, Denver won 10 games and stopped its eight-year streak of missing the playoffs. The Broncos swept the Raiders and proved they could hang with the Chiefs, falling 16-14 at Kansas City in November before winning the rematch 38-0 in Week 18, when Patrick Mahomes and most KC starters took the day off. Most importantly, Denver’s defense is legit and Payton seems to have picked the right quarterback for the franchise’s future in Bo Nix.
Offense
It’s not a certainty that a quarterback will improve after an impressive rookie season, but Nix shows no signs of being a first-year fluke. He passed for 3,775 yards and accounted for 33 touchdowns (29 passing, four rushing) while limiting the number of negative plays (12 interceptions, 24 sacks). He’s also got the right coach to develop his skills. In Payton’s first season, the Broncos ranked 19th in scoring offense (21.0 PPG). Last season, Payton and Nix elevated the offense to 10th in scoring at 25 PPG. Nix was the 12th overall pick of the 2024 draft, and the sixth QB to be picked, but only Washington’s Jayden Daniels has been better.
Courtland Sutton (81 receptions, 1,081 yards, eight TDs) is the go-to receiver, and Nix has other promising options in Marvin Mims Jr., Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant and tight end Evan Engram.
The running backs — rookie second-round pick RJ Harvey, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime — look more than capable.
Garett Bolles, Mike McGlinchey, Quinn Meinerz and Ben Powers headline a line that ranks among the league’s elite.
Defense
Pat Surtain II, a lockdown corner who had four interceptions, was voted the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. Edge rusher Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks) helped Denver lead the league in sacks (63), and coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit ranked third in scoring (18.3 PPG).
The defense is now much deeper with the additions of linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and corner Jahdae Barron, a first-round pick from Texas.
Zach Allen and D.J. Jones anchor the middle, with linebackers Jonathon Cooper and Alex Singleton complementing Bonitto. It’s a potentially dominant defense.
Outlook
The time to buy low on the Broncos was last summer, when their win total dipped to 5.5 and Payton produced a 10-7 record despite starting 0-2. The win-total hurdle is much higher now. On the optimistic side, Denver returns 20 starters and made key additions to a roster that suddenly ranks among the strongest in the NFL on both sides of the ball. Skeptics will say the non-division schedule is tougher with the presence of Philadelphia, Washington, Cincinnati and Green Bay. Don’t worry much about the schedule. Assuming Nix doesn’t take a step back, this team is loaded and primed to go to the next level. Denver opens with Tennessee (Circa Survivor pick?) as one of its nine home games. Payton will win 10 again.
Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
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Kansas City Chiefs
In the hunt for history — shooting for the first three-peat in the Super Bowl era — the Chiefs were humbled in February. In the final minute of the third quarter, the Philadelphia Eagles had rolled to a 34-0 lead en route to a 40-22 victory. Patrick Mahomes’ two touchdown passes in the final three minutes only lessened the humiliation by making the final score look somewhat respectable. After Kansas City was crushed by an opponent that dominated on both lines, general manager Brett Veach and coach Andy Reid will be challenged to avoid the Super Bowl loser hangover. The Chiefs’ 12-0 record in one-score games last season could be attributed to Mahomes’ magic and a luck factor that was off the charts. Is regression coming?
Offense
It’s often said Mahomes is the most important player in the league, but there are some numbers to dispute that opinion. Mahomes had 41 touchdown passes in 2022, when the Chiefs led the NFL in scoring at 29.2 PPG. In 2023, he dipped to 27 TD passes as the offense slipped to 21.8 PPG and ranked 15th, and in 2024, he had 26 TD passes and the offense again ranked 15th at 22.6 PPG. An alarming stat: Kansas City scored 31 points or more in only four of its 41 games the past two seasons, including once in 20 games (a 32-29 playoff victory over Buffalo) last season.
Of course, Mahomes has been forced to play Superman to overcome the offense’s deficiencies. Injury-riddled pass catchers Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy never played together last season. With those three healthy, and with running back Isiah Pacheco returning from an injury plus a potential bounce-back year from tight end Travis Kelce, expect more explosive plays.
Another big factor is a rebuilt line led by All-Pro center Creed Humphrey, guard Trey Smith and tackle Jawaan Taylor. The Chiefs, who traded guard Joe Thuney to Chicago, will plug the holes with Jaylon Moore, Kingsley Suamataia and tackle Josh Simmons, a first-round pick from Ohio State.
Defense
Veteran tackle Chris Jones, a wrecking ball in the middle, had only five sacks last season as the team’s sack total declined from 55 in 2023 to 39. Jones is surrounded by more talent with Charles Omenihu and George Karlaftis returning and joined by high draft picks Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte.
The linebacker trio of Nick Bolton, Leo Chenal and Drue Tranquill is solid, and corner Trent McDuffie anchors a good secondary.
Steve Spagnuolo is an elite defensive coordinator overseeing another strong unit that has ranked top 5 in scoring two straight years.
Outlook
Mahomes took over as starter for the 2018 season, and KC has since cranked out regular-season records of 12-4, 12-4, 14-2, 12-5, 14-3, 11-6 and 15-2. Last year’s record was an outlier due to close-game luck, and this schedule is more difficult. The Sept. 5 opener versus the Chargers in Brazil could foreshadow where the Chiefs are headed, with the likely destination being 10 to 12 wins.
Pick: Under 11.5 Wins
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Las Vegas Raiders
To paraphrase late, great basketball coach Bob Knight, we could call the Raiders a Mickey Mouse operation, but that would be an insult to Mickey Mouse. Las Vegas owner Mark Davis has been running a circus in his front office. Finally, Davis might have it right. After bringing in Tom Brady as a minority partner, Davis allowed Brady to hire the respected John Spytek as general manager. After clowning around with failed former coaches Josh McDaniels and Antonio Pierce, the new leadership team tabbed a proven winner, Pete Carroll, as coach.
Carroll, Brady and Spytek struck a deal with Seattle to acquire veteran quarterback Geno Smith. Davis’ bowl haircut aside, the Raiders have a new and improved look from the top down. But they still will be looking up at three playoff teams in the division, a tall mountain to climb.
Offense
Another new face with a big reputation is offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who’s a run-first play caller. Allowing Josh Jacobs to run to Green Bay was a mistake, and the Raiders had a pitiful rushing attack that needed to be fixed, so Boise State star Ashton Jeanty was drafted No. 6 overall. Jeanty will be a workhorse for an offense with great depth at running back.
The Raiders came up short in their play for the Rams’ Matthew Stafford, and Smith, who started for Carroll for two years with the Seahawks, was the fallback option.
Tight end Brock Bowers was a rookie sensation, totaling 112 receptions for 1,194 yards, and veteran receiver Jakobi Meyers added 87 catches for 1,027 yards. Las Vegas is loaded with weapons, but is the line strong enough?
Kelly has an outstanding track record for building offensive lines, and he’s got left tackle Kolton Miller and other promising players to work with, but it’s an area of concern.
Defense
If healthy, and injuries were a major issue last year, Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins and Malcolm Koonce could form the foundation for one of the league’s toughest defensive fronts.
The linebacker corps has questions to answer after Las Vegas curiously let Robert Spillane, a 17-game starter in the middle who made 158 tackles, leave via free agency to New England.
Carroll retained coordinator Patrick Graham, who did great work in 2023 before injuries crippled all three levels of the defense last season.
Outlook
Clumsy leadership is in the past. This franchise now has respected winners making the major decisions. Since moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, the Raiders have parted ways with three head coaches, three general managers and three starting quarterbacks. The biggest bet the new regime has made is on Smith, who must play like a top 10 quarterback if Las Vegas’ season is not another lost cause. The reward for 4-13 incompetence is a weaker schedule with non-division home games against the Bears, Titans, Jaguars, Cowboys, Browns and Giants. The Raiders upset the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 2 last year, so anything is possible. The floor for this team is five wins and the ceiling is eight.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Los Angeles Chargers
Believe the hype when it comes to Jim Harbaugh. The second-year coach has created a winning culture within the Chargers, who have long been known for underachieving. A year ago, the skeptics said he needed a year or two to rebuild. The recommendation here was to play the Chargers Over 8.5 wins as a best bet, and Harbaugh delivered an 11-6 record. Harbaugh took over a 5-12 team and turned it around immediately with the help of a soft schedule. The degree of difficulty will be higher with a tougher schedule in 2025, yet Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz are building the roster the right way.
The next step is to win in the playoffs, and quarterback Justin Herbert should be motivated after his four-interception flop in a 32-12 wild-card loss at Houston.
Offense
In 17 regular-season games, Herbert passed for 23 touchdowns with only three interceptions. He was everything Harbaugh hyped him up to be — until the postseason. After throwing four picks against the Texans, Herbert showed accountability and took the blame. He finished ninth in the NFL with 3,870 passing yards last season, and he’s not a smart bet to lead the league in passing yards due to Harbaugh’s dedication to the ground attack.
The Chargers’ young tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, are about as good as it gets. The interior line needed an upgrade, so right guard Mekhi Becton was acquired via free agency from Philadelphia.
The running back position is stronger with the additions of Najee Harris from Pittsburgh and first-round pick Omarion Hampton.
Second-year receiver Ladd McConkey is Herbert’s go-to guy, but other pass catchers such as Quentin Johnston need to emerge. The Chargers will be better after ranking 20th in total offense, 17th in rushing and 11th in scoring (23.6 PPG).
A strength is kicker Cameron Dicker, who went 68-for-71 on extra points and 70-for-75 on field goals the past two seasons.
Defense
Harbaugh brought coordinator Jesse Minter from Michigan, and it was a wise move as the Chargers ranked in the top 15 in all major categories, including No. 1 in scoring (17.7 PPG). There are some questions about the line after losing nose tackle Poona Ford to the Rams and Joey Bosa to the Bills, but Khalil Mack, Junior Colson and Bud Dupree lead a talented group of linebackers. The best player on this side of the ball continues to be safety Derwin James. The run defense will be the biggest concern.
Outlook
The Chargers obviously took advantage of a last-place schedule last season, beating up on the Panthers, Patriots and Titans on the way to 11 wins. Harbaugh also went 4-2 in division games by sweeping the Broncos and Raiders. The schedule is more challenging this time, making the Chargers a risky bet to overachieve. Based on opponents’ win totals, Kansas City has the most difficult schedule in the division. The Chiefs are vulnerable in the top spot, with the Chargers and Broncos closing fast, and those three teams should wind up with 10 to 12 wins apiece.
Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
