On Monday, September 14, the Chiefs host the Broncos in a big AFC West matchup. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 1 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Broncos vs. Chiefs
When: Monday, September 13 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: ESPN
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Sunday, September 13. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -135, Broncos +114
Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110), Broncos +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 43.5 (-108), Under 43.5 (-112)
Broncos vs. Chiefs Analysis
Kansas City is coming off an active offseason, which saw the team moving on from some of its best defensive backs. However, the Chiefs also added a star running back in Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, and the team surprisingly has Patrick Mahomes ready for Week 1 after having torn his ACL last year.
Denver was also active after last season, with Jaylen Waddle being the team’s most exciting acquisition. The Broncos also have their quarterback healthy, as Bo Nix is fully recovered from the two ankle surgeries he underwent for the fracture he suffered in last year’s playoffs.
With both teams relatively healthy, this is a game fans and bettors are really looking forward to.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Denver is 6-2 against the spread versus Kansas City. But the Chiefs are 3-1 straight-up against the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium in that span, and I’d have a hard time fading them at home.
The advanced stats from last season don’t exactly tell the story that Denver was much better than Kansas City, even if the records did. Last year, the Chiefs had an EPA/play of 0.042, which was slightly higher than the Broncos’ 0.035. And while Denver had a better EPA/play allowed (-0.058 vs. -0.008), the margin wasn’t that big.
It’s fair to question Mahomes’ health with this being his first game back, but there’s just very little that suggests the Chiefs can’t win this one. This offense has the potential to be elite with Walker in the backfield. Kansas City hasn’t had a truly special running back in quite some time, and it’s going to open up all kinds of options for a Chiefs offense that apparently added some new wrinkles in training camp. The secondary also looks to be in a decent spot with Nohl Williams and L’Jarius Sneed stepping into the top two slots on the depth chart.
Andy Reid also happens to be 33-11 on the moneyline in September games since becoming the head coach of the Chiefs. Kansas City has won those games by an average of 7.4 points per game. The Chiefs also happen to be 85-25 straight-up as home favorites under Reid. Meanwhile, Sean Payton is 6-12 straight-up as a road underdog with Denver. The Broncos are also 1-5 both SU and ATS in the first two weeks of the season under Payton.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props
LEAN: Courtland Sutton Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It seems like many people are expecting Sutton to take a significant step back this season. The Broncos went out and made a trade for Waddle in the offseason, and the targets and yards have to come from somewhere. However, Sutton has been Nix’s go-to receiver, and he should be a big factor in this game. He’s reliable in a number of different ways, and he’s working against a completely revamped Chiefs secondary. The OptaAI player prop projections on the VSiN website have him finishing with 46.29 yards.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Pick
While most of the bets and handle look to be on the Broncos — according to the VSiN betting splits page — there’s a freeze on the spread with Denver laying 2.5 points. That suggests the Chiefs are the sharp side, which is nice considering I already had a lean on Kansas City. However, if you look around hard enough, you should be able to find the Chiefs from anywhere from -127 to -130. I prefer the moneyline at that number.
Bet: Chiefs ML (-127 – 1.5 units)
