MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, September 14.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
7:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Jonah Tong posted a 4.54 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and five walks per nine innings at the minor league level. He has a 4.80 ERA with 15 innings logged at the MLB level this season, with 4.8 walks per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young has pitched to a lot of contact with 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings while posting a 3.71 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Orioles vs. Mets Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
7:45 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez owns a 4.13 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that leads the league in scoring with over 5.3 runs per game. The Braves have been the second-lowest-scoring team in the National League since August 1 with 3.9 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher David Peterson has pitched better than his 5.26 ERA would indicate, with a 4.13 fielding independent and one home run per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -148
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Giants got bad news over the weekend with Rafael Devers being done for the season. The team should find a way to get men on base against Cardinals rookie Quinn Mathews, who has a 4.11 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has had command issues of his own with a 4.00 ERA with 4.3 walks per nine innings, but is allowing only 0.7 home runs per nine innings. The Cardinals are last in the National League in scoring at home with 3.9 runs per game.
Picks: Giants Moneyline +110 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Giants +108 and Total 8.2
9:38 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers has put together a nice season with a 3.32 ERA,10.2 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings allowed. The Mariners lineup ranks 28th in scoring with less than 4.1 runs per game. The Angels are last in the league in scoring at home with 3.6 runs per game. Mariners starting pitcher Kade Anderson has struggled since being promoted to the MLB level, posting a 4.29 ERA and 5.20 fielding independent. He has allowed 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings with 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Anderson is supported by a Mariners bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA since July 1 at 5.57.
Picks: Angels Moneyline +100 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Angels -122 and Total 7.3
9:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is making only his second appearance of the season after allowing two walks but no runs in three innings against the Kansas City Royals. Burnes is backed by a bullpen that is 14th in ERA at 3.97. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has a 3.78 ERA with one home run and 2.5 walks per nine innings, but he has a career-low 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season. On the road, his ERA goes to 4.36 with nearly 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 3.14 ERA with 0.4 home runs per nine innings at home.
Pick: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
