As bettors, we’re not supposed to get too high or too low based on one week of results, right?
Well, except for the fact that the Bears (+2200) are going to win the Super Bowl after hanging 59 points on Carolina.
Kidding . . . maybe.
We still have one more Week 1 game to overreact to:
Broncos (+2.5/Circa) at Chiefs — 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Zach Cohen likes the Chiefs on the moneyline, with Patrick Mahomes back from his ACL injury and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in the backfield.
Favorites mostly held serve with one big exception.
Dave Tuley’s ATS Report: Including the Wednesday and Thursday games, favorites are 11-4 SU and 8-6-1 ATS, with Arizona’s victory as a 9.5-point underdog against the Chargers the biggest upset.
After starting 0-2 in the weekday games, Overs lead 9-5-1 for Week 1.
That Chargers loss was especially expensive at Circa.
The Chargers knocked 7,585 entries — 30.3% of the field — out of Circa Survivor, leaving 16,985 entries alive by day’s end.
And in the $100,000-entry Circa Grandissimo, 28 of the 77 entries (36.4%) had the Chargers.
The biggest injury: Vikings QB Kyler Murray suffered a concussion in the first quarter, but Carson Wentz came off the bench and threw three touchdown passes as Minnesota rallied for a 39-22 victory over Green Bay.
The betting market has already started reacting to Week 1.
One of the biggest moves from last week’s lookahead lines is Vikings at Bears.
Chicago was mostly -3 on the lookahead lines. After the Bears hung 59 on Carolina and Murray suffered the concussion, Chicago reopened as high as -6.5 at DraftKings and is now -5.5.
Is Bears -5.5 justified — or are bettors paying an Overreaction Monday tax?
>> Adam Burke Breaks Down the NFL Week 2 Lines & Early Moves
DonBest delivers real-time odds, line moves and Steam alerts so you can see where the betting market is moving.
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While everyone is dissecting NFL Week 1, Adam Burke has already moved on to college football Week 3.
Adam updated his power ratings and identified six games he’s keeping an eye on based on the new numbers.
>> Adam Burke’s Week 3 Power Ratings & Projections
He’s also tracking the early Week 3 line moves.
As Adam points out, a line move in one direction doesn’t mean you should automatically back the steam. But it should be one factor in your handicap.
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