On Thursday, October 8, the Dallas Cowboys host a wounded Tampa Bay Buccaneers team at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This seems like a great opportunity for the Cowboys to pick up a home win, but will it be that straightforward? Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
When: Thursday, October 8 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Channel: Prime Video
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, October 6. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Cowboys -455, Buccaneers +350
Spread: Cowboys -8.5 (-112), Buccaneers +8.5 (-108)
Total: Over 47.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-105)
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Analysis
Baker Mayfield is totally the kind of player who beats an injury timeline, but this would be too quick of a return for the 31-year-old. That means this primetime showdown between the Buccaneers and Cowboys will feature Jalon Daniels under center for the road team.
The inexperience of the rookie quarterback is the reason why Dallas is a popular moneyline parlay anchor — and Survivor option. Also, as of time of publish (Tuesday, October 6 at 10:30 pm ET), our Circa Sports betting splits show 70% of the bets coming in on Dallas to cover.
While there’s very little public belief in the Buccaneers here, it’s rare that these games end up being as straightforward as they seem. And while the ticket count might show heavy support for the Cowboys, we have seen the line come down from -10 to -8. There’s sharp money pushing the line closer to a touchdown, and that’s the side I happen to be on.
For as bad as Tampa Bay has looked this season, the team is currently No. 5 in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.066). The Bucs have been one of the best teams in football against the run (-0.253 Rush EPA/Play Allowed), and they’re not far from being a top-10 team in Dropback EPA/Play (0.050).
There’s just a very good chance Tampa Bay will completely limit the damage Javonte Williams does on the ground, setting up a bunch of long-yardage situations for Dak Prescott in the passing game. That might not seem like much of an issue with Prescott having just thrown for 335 yards and a touchdown against the Texans — and CeeDee Lamb bringing in 17 catches for 189 yards and a score all by himself. However, all you can hope to do as a defense is is make the opposing offense a little uncomfortable. I think the Bucs can do that.
I also happened to like some of what we saw from Daniels in a loss to the Packers last week. Sure, he made some costly mistakes, but that was his first meaningful NFL start. He should be a little calmer when he gets out there for this one, and he’ll definitely be up against the right defense. Dallas is No. 31 in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (0.191), and the team’s secondary has been abysmal. It also doesn’t help the defensive backs that the Cowboys are No. 30 in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (42%). Quarterbacks have had a lot of time to sit in the pocket and make throws, and Daniels should benefit from that. He’s also extremely fast. So, if he sees any green in front of him, he can quickly turn nothing into a 20-yard gain.
Todd Bowles has also been very kind to bettors when people don’t believe in his teams. Since becoming the head coach of the Bucs, the team is 4-0 against the spread as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Player Props
LEAN: Chris Godwin Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
I won’t be playing any player props in this game. A play on the side almost feels like one too many for this type of matchup. However, if I had to take something, I’d roll with Godwin to have at least 28 receiving yards. Our OptaAI player prop projections have Godwin finishing with 33.79 yards in this game, and they have that as a 9.0% edge to the Over on 28.5. Well, with the number being out there a little lower, the edge only gets stronger. Godwin also happens to come into this one having had at least 31 receiving yards in three of his last four games. The WR/CB Matchup Tool also loves Godwin’s matchup with Reddy Steward.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Pick
I had some trouble deciding between the Over and the Buccaneers, but I ultimately went with Tampa. While I do think this will be a high-scoring game, Thursday night battles can occasionally be pretty ugly. Also, while this spread is down at 8 right now, a couple of shops do have 8.5. So, I took that extra help and played the road team.
Bet: Buccaneers +8.5 (-108)
