🏈 Who’s Betting on the Bucs?
Let’s see here.
The Bucs are 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS.
They’re without Baker Mayfield. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels threw three interceptions in his first NFL start. That was at home. Now he’s on the road in Dallas.
Tampa Bay will also be without standout safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and two defensive reserves.
So why do the Circa betting splits look like this?
Circa opened Dallas as a 9.5-point favorite. By Wednesday night, Circa’s line was Cowboys -7.5. Just 33% of the spread bets were on the Bucs, but those bets represented 92% of the money wagered on the spread at Circa.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen writes: “While there’s very little public belief in the Buccaneers here, it’s rare that these games end up being as straightforward as they seem. There’s sharp money pushing the line closer to a touchdown.”
Zach sees a path to improvement for Daniels: Dallas ranks 31st in EPA per play allowed (0.191), and its secondary has struggled.
>> Zach’s Bucs-Cowboys Best Bets
One caution about those splits: Circa often takes sizable wagers in the final minutes before kickoff. The Wednesday-night picture could look very different by game time.
Circa owner Derek Stevens will join VSiN around 7:30 p.m. ET, ahead of the 8:15 kickoff, with a fresh look at the action. That’s worth watching before you place your bet.
>> Follow the Circa Betting Splits
🐕 Dog or Pass?
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley has a dilemma: “I usually love TNF dogs.” Does he make an exception for this Tampa Bay team?
>> Dave’s Takes on Every NFL Game
I also checked the VSiN Pro picks page to make sure our No. 1 ride-or-die Cowboys hypeman wasn’t getting cold feet.
Dave Ross: Cowboys -8.
Whew!
>> VSiN Pro Picks, Including John Hansen’s TNF Props
🧰 Build Your Own TNF Card
BOLT’s Bucs-Cowboys player prop recommendations are expected after 1 p.m. ET today. You can also explore our AI projections, player prop analyzer and VSiN expert picks.
>> Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections
>> NFL Week 5 Hub, Including Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report
Programming note: Keyshawn Johnson and Patrick Meagher will provide live commentary on tonight’s game from 8–11 p.m. ET.
💬 A Cowboys Fan Makes His Case
I asked the VSiN Community for its best Thursday Night Football handicap. Ryan Barrett, a self-described Cowboys fan, expects Dallas to win big — and has a prop-bet angle to go with it.
>> Read Ryan’s Cowboys Handicap and Prop
☠️ A Tempting Survivor Shortcut?
Circa Survivor contestants usually prefer to avoid Thursday night. But with Dallas priced around -495 on the moneyline, will some contestants decide the Cowboys are too tempting to pass up?
Meanwhile, the Survivor Sweat marketplace reported 16 entry sales Tuesday and seven more Wednesday. Among the unsold listings: 3% of a Circa Grandissimo entry offered for $15,000 — an implied $500,000 valuation for the whole entry at that asking price.
>> See Survivor Sweat Marketplace Listings
💵 EdgeBoost
EdgeBoost is offering a $2,000 bonus with a deposit of at least $100 for finishing first in the Week 5 Average Joe standings.
🏈 Four More College Football Games Tonight
Adam Burke zeroes in on South Florida at UTSA, a matchup of two 4-1 American Conference teams hoping to build a College Football Playoff résumé. He also breaks down the other three Thursday games.
>> Adam’s Thursday CFB Analysis and Best Bets
Steve Makinen has picks for three of tonight’s four games. >> See Steve’s Week 6 Best Bets
⚾ 3 In; 1 Division Series Left
The Rays swept the Yankees to advance to the ALCS, the Dodgers finished off Atlanta to reach the NLCS and will meet the Brewers, who eliminated the Padres late Wednesday.
That leaves Game 4 of the ALDS: Guardians at White Sox, 8 p.m. ET tonight on TBS.
Adam Burke notes that Cleveland’s bats finally came alive in Game 3. Parker Messick is on full rest, while Chicago faces another bullpen game. Adam is watching how aggressively manager Will Venable uses Grant Taylor — and whether Erick Fedde handles bulk innings after Davis Martin worked in Game 3.
The Rays await the winner after holding the Yankees to just five runs in their sweep. And the Dodgers’ depth showed again: they lost the Blake Snell start but won behind Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow.
Adam’s Thursday MLB Best Bets are expected later this morning. Check the VSiN MLB page for the latest analysis.
⚾ Tony George Stays Hot in MLB
Tony George finished the 2026 MLB regular season +120 units and +$8,060.
>> Get a Free Trial at Doc’s Sports
📖 DonBest Football Rotation Guide
The updated second-half College and Pro Rotation Guide is available for $4.99. Already purchased? Download the updated version.
