In the first of two Week 7 Monday Night Football games, the Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Buccaneers vs. Lions
When: Monday, October 20 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 19. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Lions -285, Buccaneers +230
Spread: Lions -6 (-110), Buccaneers +6 (-110)
Total: Over 53.5 (-108), Under 53.5 (-112)
Buccaneers vs. Lions Analysis
The Buccaneers beat the Lions at Ford Field last season, winning 20-16 as 7.5-point underdogs. That, combined with the stellar play of Baker Mayfield this season, could be enough to inspire some bets on Tampa. However, the Lions went 1 for 7 in the red zone in that meeting last September. They had a real opportunity to win that game comfortably, but they couldn’t finish drives — and Jared Goff threw two interceptions. You probably shouldn’t weigh that result too heavily when looking at this matchup — especially with the Buccaneers seriously banged up coming into this one.
It’s actually very hard to imagine Tampa slowing down the Detroit offense again. While the Buccaneers are first in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.236), the Lions, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, can generally be counted on to get going behind one of Pro Football Focus’ top-10 offensive lines. And if Detroit does have some success running the football, Tampa is in a lot of trouble when looking at the passing defense. The Bucs are just 20th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.136), so there could be Lions receivers streaking open throughout this one.
As far as the Detroit defense goes, this has been a tough matchup for Mayfield over the years. In three meetings with the Lions since joining the Bucs, Mayfield has thrown four interceptions. Of course, this version of Mayfield is an MVP candidate, throwing for 1,539 yards with 12 touchdowns and only one pick this season. But how much better can he be expected to be against a Detroit team that is ninth in EPA per play allowed (0.001)? The Lions are also big and athletic along the defensive line. They should be able to stuff the run, make Mayfield uncomfortable in the pocket, and also prevent the star quarterback from making too many plays with his legs.
The Lions have also been awesome when coming off lopsided losses under Dan Campbell. Detroit is 10-2 against the spread when coming off a loss of 10+ points under Campbell. On top of that, the Lions are 10-2 ATS when coming off a two-game road trip in that span, winning those games by an average of 13.2 points per game. There’s also the fact that Detroit is 17-3 ATS under Campbell when facing teams that average 235.0 or more passing yards per game. That trend is good for +13.7 units and an ROI of 62.3%.
The Lions also look like the sharper side here. Our VSiN betting splits pages — both DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports — show a decent number of bets on Tampa, but the spread has gone from Detroit -4.5 to Detroit -6 at most shops. That’s some real reverse line movement, adding to the many reasons the Lions look like a good play.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Player Props
Lean: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (-146)
All of our VSiN tools suggest St. Brown will come up with seven or more receptions here. Our OptaAI player projections have St. Brown going for 7.51 receptions. Our WR-CB Matchup Report has St. Brown with the second-biggest “advantage” of the week in his battle with Jacob Parrish. Plus, our NFL Prop Analyzer shows St. Brown as 5-1 to the Over on his reception total this season, which is good for an ROI of 55.9%. St. Brown has had at least seven catches in five consecutive games, and he hauled in 11 passes for 119 yards against Tampa last year. He has been scorching hot, and he enjoys this matchup.
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Buccaneers vs. Lions Pick
A pretty good argument can be made that the Lions are better than the Buccaneers on both sides of the ball. They just have to find a way to overcome Mayfield’s magic, and I think they’ll be able to do that. That’s why I’m backing Detroit, even though I hate laying 5.5. It also doesn’t hurt that our VSiN projection for this game has Lions 30.3-Buccaneers 23.9.
Bet: Lions -5.5 (-118)
