In the first of the two Week 2 Monday Night Football matchups in the 2025 NFL season, the Houston Texans host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 2 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Buccaneers vs. Texans
When: Monday, September 15th at 7:00 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Buccaneers vs. Texans Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, September 14th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Texans -135, Buccaneers +114
Spread: Texans -2.5 (-108), Buccaneers +2.5 (-112)
Total: Over 42.5 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)
RELATED: Check out our Buccaneers vs. Texans matchup page!
Buccaneers vs. Texans Analysis
A decent argument can be made that Houston has the best defense in the NFL. Last year, the Texans finished tied for fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.054), and the young, talented unit is only getting better. Houston also happened to hold Los Angeles to 14 points in Week 1, as the Rams rushed for only 2.9 yards per carry and Matthew Stafford was largely held in check.
Unfortunately for the Texans, their offense is a mess right now. Houston made the decision to trade Laremy Tunsil to Washington during the offseason, moving on from the five-time Pro Bowler that protected C.J. Stroud’s blind side. The Texans thought they’d be fine up front, but all five starters graded out below 67.0 at Pro Football Focus last week. And two of the five were below 50.0. Stroud also took three sacks in the game, and it’s hard to imagine things being much better in Week 2.
Houston is also depleted when it comes to the skill positions. Sure, Nico Collins is a tremendous wide receiver, but there’s very little after him. That allows opposing defenses to roll extra coverage Collins’ way. If that’s not enough, the Texans are also without Joe Mixon. That leaves the team with an over-the-hill Nick Chubb to run behind the porous offensive line.
It also doesn’t help that Stroud has regressed since his stellar rookie season. Perhaps that’s not his fault. As previously mentioned, his offensive line is a joke. It’s also hard to make things happen without the threat of the run, or without a competent group of pass-catchers. But no matter the reason, there isn’t a whole lot that will strike fear into Todd Bowles and his Buccaneers defense here. Tampa Bay is rather average on the defensive side of the ball, but average is good enough when taking on this offense.
As long as Baker Mayfield doesn’t turn the ball over left and right, the Buccaneers should have a good shot at winning this one late. And I can’t quite see him doing that. Last week, in what was a bit of a down week for the Tampa Bay offense, Mayfield still threw for three touchdowns and zero picks. Things should only get better as Josh Grizzard settles into the offensive coordinator role.
Bowles also happens to be 7-0 both straight-up and against the spread in the first two weeks of the season with the Buccaneers. On top of that, Tampa is 11-5 ATS when playing as a road underdog under Bowles.
There’s definitely a lot to like when looking at the Buccaneers side in this game, but don’t sleep on the Under as an option. Despite the fact that our VSiN betting splits show nearly 75% of DraftKings Sportsbook tickets have come in on the Over, the number has dropped from 45.5 to 42.5. That’s something to keep in mind with the Texans having a great defense and a bad offense. The Under is also 11-1-1 in the 13 games Houston has played at home with totals between 42.5 and 49 points under DeMeco Ryans.
Buccaneers vs. Texans Player Props
Nick Chubb Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
I won’t be playing any player props in this game, but I did consider going Under on Chubb’s rushing total. While Chubb rushed for 60 yards in Week 1, Tampa’s Rush EPA per play allowed was -0.517 in Week 1. That was against an Atlanta team that desperately wanted to pound the rock with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. But there was nothing there against a big, disciplined Buccaneers defensive front. I’m not sure that changes with Tampa now working against a poor run-blocking line.
Buccaneers vs. Texans Pick
I really like Tampa’s chances of winning this game outright, but I’m grabbing the Buccaneers +3 at -125. In the event the Texans eke out a close one, I’d rather be somewhat protected. But I truly believe this is Tampa Bay’s game to lose. It would take a miserable Mayfield performance, or an awesome Stroud performance, to change that.
I also don’t hate the idea of going Tampa +8.5 and Las Vegas +8.5 in a Monday Night Football teaser. That might be a late addition to the Pro Picks page for me, if I can get it at -140 or better.
Bet: Buccaneers +3 (-125)
NOTE: I was able to add the Bucs +8.5/Raiders +8.5 play at -122 at bet365.
