NFL Player Props
In a rare bit of good fortune, the weather for the second-to-last weekend in November actually looks good across the NFL. Of course, we do have seven of the 14 games played in a dome, including the entire 4 p.m. window and Sunday Night Football. That’s good at least, in that we don’t have to let Mother Nature factor too much into the handicap. We can just focus on injuries and matchups with our Week 12 NFL Player Props.
We also have three games with a total in the 50s and two that are knocking on the door as of Friday afternoon, so that could make for some fun football and maybe some good betting opportunities for those looking at Overs or some sort of scoring props. Or maybe, it will add some value to Unders with some inflated numbers.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.
As always, shop around for these Week 12 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 11:15 a.m. PT on Friday, November 21 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 12:
D’Andre Swift (CHI) Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Swift and the Bears take on the Steelers this week and I like Chicago -2.5, so there’s a bit of correlation here in that I think Ben Johnson’s boys will be leading in the second half. That would mean a good amount of Swift. Or at least it should, anyway.
Swift had 21 carries on 43 snaps last week against Minnesota and he’s reliably gotten double-digit carries in each game this season. But, I do think it’s worth noting that since Chicago’s Week 5 bye, Swift has averaged 5.7 yards per carry and has eclipsed this number in four of five games. The only one he didn’t was with 45 yards against Baltimore in Week 8 and then he missed the next week with a groin injury.
Swift has 170 yards on 34 carries in his last two games. The Bears are eighth in Rushing Success Rate since that Week 5 bye and fourth in Rush EPA. Johnson has found the pulse of this offense and has had it humming right along.
Over the last five weeks, the Steelers are 30th in Rush EPA against and 27th in Rushing Success Rate against. I’ll take my chances with Swift in this matchup.
OptaAI has Swift for 52.28 rushing yards.
Hunter Henry (NE) Over 3.5 Receptions (+102)
The Bengals have not covered tight ends well this season. At all. Cincinnati has allowed the most receiving yards to TE by a good margin over the Dolphins, who have played one additional game. The Bengals also lead the NFL in targets allowed to tight ends with 97. They are tied for the fourth-most catches at that position. They’ve also given up 12 TD, so Henry for an anytime TD or even a first TD might not be a bad look.
Henry is an every-down TE, playing 94% of the snaps last week and over 70% in 10 of his 11 games. He’s gone over 3.5 catches in five games, with four grabs four times, so this one is a little bit dicey in that regard. But, because the Bengals don’t really cover that position well, the plus-money price does make this more attractive.
The Bengals have actually allowed the fifth-fewest Air Yards this season, so their scheme is an effort to keep things in front of them, tied for the lowest average depth of target. To me, that makes Henry a good option for Drake Maye.
OptaAI has Henry for 4.22 receptions.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Under 214.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Between getting eyes on the Jaguars, checking out the box scores, and reading up on the team, there really aren’t a lot of signs that Liam Coen trusts Lawrence. Honestly, I like this Jaguars offense, the route concepts and schemes, and the skill guys. I don’t much like Lawrence either and I think that the recent success of the running game is weighing heavily on the play-calling and Lawrence’s numbers.
While Lawrence has only gone Under this number in four of the 10 games, the last two weeks have been two of those games. He also would have gone Under in Week 9 against the Raiders without overtime. Since Week 7, the Jags are third in Rush EPA and second in Rush Success Rate.
The Cardinals are 30th in Rushing Success Rate on defense and 18th in Rush EPA. That does include a bye week, but does exclude the games against the Colts and Seahawks with 150+ rushing yards. I think Coen will look to rely on the run again and Lawrence, who is 29th out of 33 QBs with at least 192 plays in EPA+CPOE Composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected) is a liability. Lawrence has the second-lowest CPOE, better than only Dillon Gabriel. He’s holding the Jags back and Coen has found ways to work around him.
OptaAI has Lawrence for 227.77 passing yards.
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