NFL Player Props
Injuries are already starting to mount in the NFL, so Week 3 NFL player prop bets are a little bit trickier to think about. Not only are we missing a handful of QBs, including Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, but there are also some teams up against it on the offensive line. It is hard to move the football without winning at the point of attack. Keep in mind that you can bet the Under on player props. It may not be as fun as rooting for an Over, but the two-way market is something that you should leverage as a bettor.
Once again, taking game state, injury, and weather into consideration, along with the matchups themselves on a team and individual level, I’ve narrowed my focus on the Week 3 NFL player prop market. Game state and injury create opportunity and we’re getting some players with some opportunities that they wouldn’t have previously had this week.
We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.
And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models.
As always, shop around for these Week 3 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 3:00 p.m. PT on Friday, September 19 and are from DraftKings.
Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.
Here are some Player Props NFL Week 3:
Bryce Young (CAR) Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-119)
Young has gone Over this number in both of his starts, including 55 pass attempts last week while trying to play catch-up against the Cardinals. The game state, the spread, and the start to the season for the Falcons, suggest that Carolina will be playing from behind again here. Soft coverage while protecting a lead could be contributing here, but Young has had nearly 2.7 seconds per dropback to throw per NFL Next Gen Stats, so the Panthers are protecting him pretty well.
Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Falcons have only recorded one QB Hurry and just 12 Pressures this season. The one concern I do have here is that the Falcons have the fourth-highest average length of drive at 3:25, so they are playing keep-away pretty well. But, the Panthers are likely to be trailing, the Falcons haven’t had a ton of success flushing QBs (though they do have seven sacks and an 11.7% Sack%, so it’s been an all-or-nothing deal), and Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik probably prefer to throw the ball anyway.
The OptaAI projection for Young is 36.25 pass attempts.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
A lot was made of Washington’s decision to move on from Brian Robinson Jr. and hand the running back reins to “Bill”. Well, Jeremy McNichols had a higher snap share (23.2% to 21.7%) than Croskey-Merritt last week against the Packers. Maybe it was because it was a short week and the team on the other side had Micah Parsons, but the task at hand isn’t that much easier with Maxx Crosby to deal with this week.
The Raiders have allowed opponents to complete 67.1% of their passes and rank 24th in Dropback EPA, but they have the best Rush EPA against in the NFL and the fifth-best Rush Success Rate against per RBSDM. They have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry thus far and are one of six teams to not allow a rushing TD yet. They’re likely to flood the box here and bring the safeties closer given that Mariota can’t beat them over the top like Daniels can.
Kliff Kingsbury is apt to use Deebo Samuel more and also utilize the fine hands of Austin Ekeler with Marcus Mariota. Not to mention, Mariota himself can run around a bit. After all, Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders in rush attempts so far with 18 and Ekeler has the same number as Croskey-Merritt with 14 totes.
The OptaAI projection for Croskey-Merritt says 37.67 rushing yards.
Author’s note: Apparently I was the only person on the planet who missed the Austin Ekeler Achilles news. My apologies; bet and write-up left for transparency purposes.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) Over 3.5 Receptions (-107)
We got this at plus money last week, as Okonkwo had six targets and four receptions to go Over the total. I’m willing to try it again here. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Cam Ward has had the 10th-most time to throw, and yet he’s still not taking any shots down the field. In 61 pass attempts this season, Ward only has 11 attempts of 10+ yards, four attempts of 20+ yards, and zero attempts beyond that.
It was Bo Nix and the Broncos, so I am taking it with a shaker of salt, but Nix only threw six of his 30 passes more than 10 yards down the field. The Colts have only allowed 8.5 yards per reception this season. The rise of the tight end has had a lot to do with teams playing high safeties to avoid the big plays. There’s a lot of “bend, but don’t break” defensive strategies out there these days.
So, guys like Okonkwo become options, even for a big-armed gunslinger like Ward. I also found it interesting that Tony Pollard only has one reception so far. Okonkwo shared the lead in targets last week with Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor, and Pollard hasn’t been a factor at all. It wasn’t a big part of his game at Miami, as the RBs combined for 33 catches out of 328 as a team. The Bengals allowed a Catch% to tight ends of 87.2% on 86 targets last season, so maybe that carries over with Lou Anarumo now serving as Indy’s DC.
The OptaAI projection for Okonkwo is 3.27 receptions, but I’ll take my chances given the matchup, game state, and Ward’s ball distribution and distance.
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