2023-24 NFL Season Cincinnati Bengals Review
Our series of deep dives into teams who underachieved in 2023 relative to preseason projections continues. Today, our disappointing team of the day is the Cincinnati Bengals, who finished the season ranked 17th in the TSI power ratings.
The Bengals managed to finish the season with a winning record at 9-8, but went 7-8 ATS overall, including just 3-5 ATS on the road. They finished dead last in the daunting AFC North.
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Above, you’ll see the Bengals’ TSI rating as it fluctuated throughout the season. Coming off of a successful 2022, the Bengals were projected as one of the best teams in the NFL, only to see their TSI rating drop to New-York-Giants-Level bad by week 4, before rebounding decently well and staying around league average the rest of the way.
Bengals Offense
Above anything else, Joe Burrow’s health was the primary reason for the disappointing season in The Jungle, as he was injured in training camp and there was doubt surrounding his availability early in the season and he clearly didn’t look like himself early on. Once he began finding his rhythm and health, he then was injured again and placed on season-ending IR, thus effectively ending any hope the Bengals had at another deep postseason run. Backup Jake Brown did an admirable job filling in, but Cincinnati’s points per game production dropped 4 points from 2022, and the Bengals’ TSI offensive rating was middle-of-the-pack in the NFL as a result.
Some key stats that were indicative of Cincinnati’s roller coaster 2023 included being 13th in the NFL in EPA per play (down from 5th in 2022), 11th in offensive success rate (down from 4th) and 16th in EPA per dropback (down from 5th).
Bengals Defense
The regression wasn’t just on the offensive side of the ball; in 2022, the Bengals allowed just over 19 points per game but saw that spike to over 22 points per game in 2023.
Defensively, they were 27th in EPA per play (down from 8th in 2022) and 31st in defensive success rate (way down from 7th in 2022) and 24th in EPA per dropback (down from 7th in 2022).
Bengals 2024 Outlook
Their 2024 win total currently sits at 10.5, with the Over being juiced to -120. Clearly, oddsmakers expect a bounce back year from Burrow and company, and I don’t blame them. I expect the offensive to be firing on all cylinders again, but I do wonder about the defensive regression we saw last year. Was that for real, or just a product of the offense keeping them on the field too much? That’s what I’ve got my eye on this season for Cincinnati.
With Burrow’s injury history and the question marks defensively, I think I would have to play this Under 10.5 at +100 odds. Too much uncertainty surrounding this team for me to have any faith in them winning 11 games in a division with Cleveland, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
