The Thursday Night Football matchup that will kick off Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season features the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Commanders at Lambeau Field. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 2 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Commanders vs. Packers
When: Thursday, September 11th at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Commanders vs. Packers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 9th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Packers -180, Commanders +150
Spread: Packers -3.5 (-105), Commanders +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 48.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-115)
Commanders vs. Packers Analysis
In looking at our VSiN betting splits page, Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite over Washington at DraftKings Sportsbook, but the team quickly moved to 3.5 pretty much everywhere. Perhaps that move had something to do with the way the Packers handled the Lions. While Ben Johnson is no longer running that Detroit offense, Green Bay still held last year’s top scoring offense to 13 points in a two-touchdown victory — and the one touchdown was a must-see garbage-time score from rookie Isaac TeSlaa.
Micah Parsons, who the Packers paid a king’s ransom for, was awesome at getting after Jared Goff. Parsons didn’t play as much as he normally would, as he’s a little banged up and hasn’t had much time to familiarize himself with defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s scheme. However, he’s only going to play more and more as the season progresses, and it’s clear this defense has the goods when he’s out there to bull-rush passers.
The issue with having a defense built around an elite pass-rusher, and a strong defensive front, is that it’s not quite as impactful against a mobile quarterback like Jayden Daniels. And honestly, if Parsons and the Packers are overly focused on bringing Daniels down — with Parsons playing as a spy — Daniels can do a ton of damage with his legs by getting around the pressure. Kliff Kingsbury is also good at dialing up screens against overzealous defenses, and that’s another way Washington can burn Green Bay.
I ultimately just don’t see the Packers completely slowing down this Commanders offense, which is why I think grabbing 3.5 is the move in this game.
Washington wasn’t perfect in Week 1, but the team earned a 21-6 win over division rival New York. In that game, Daniels threw for 233 yards with a touchdown and no picks, and he also rushed for 68 yards. As a team, the Commanders rushed for 220 yards and two touchdowns, which is impressive with the Giants having a good defensive line. We also saw Deebo Samuel catch seven balls for 77 yards, while also rushing for 19 yards and a touchdown, in his first game with the team. All in all, this offense, which now has a star at left tackle in Laremy Tunsil, looked good with all of the new weapons in place. Moving forward, the group should only do better when it comes to finishing drives. And defensively, the Commanders pass rush was relentless, and everybody else was flying all over the field. Now, it’s hard not to be optimistic about where this team is going this season.
Last year, the Commanders looked rather lousy when it came to EPA per play allowed against both the run (-0.019) and the pass (0.099). But the team continues to invest on that side of the ball, making it a priority to get head coach Dan Quinn the types of players he needs to compete at the highest level. And this week, I expect the Washington defense to do just enough to give Daniels a shot at winning the game.
While Matt LaFleur can always be trusted to manufacture an above-average offense, the Commanders offense will be the most explosive group on the field in this game. Green Bay is going to try and hammer away with Josh Jacobs between the tackles, but Washington should have a decent answer for that. And when Jordan Love drops back to pass, I have some questions about the group of pass-catchers he’s working with — especially considering the wideouts that have popped up on the injury report. I also think the Commanders will be able to put some pressure on him in key situations, as the Packers offensive line is far from impenetrable.
Washington has also enjoyed the underdog role with Quinn on the sidelines. The Commanders are 6-4 both straight-up and against the spread when getting points under Quinn. And for what it’s worth, the Packers are 6-8 ATS when taking on NFC East opponents under LaFleur.
Commanders vs. Packers Player Props
Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (-101)
I’m going to put a little something on Samuel to have at least five receptions here. While I expect Kingsbury to be a little more deliberate in getting Terry McLaurin touches this week, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Samuel hauled in seven receptions on 10 targets last week. Samuel was doing a good job of creating separation for himself, so Daniels was able to hit him down the field. But he’s also just so valuable after the catch that the Commanders are going to continue to get the ball out to him quickly. And as I previously noted, the screen game could be a major factor in this one. That should be good for Samuel receptions, as he’s going to be a main target on screens all year.
Commanders vs. Packers Pick
I’d completely understand a play on the Packers at -2.5, or a pricier play on the moneyline, as this is a good football team and they’re always tough at Lambeau. However, in a meeting between two teams that I have on a level playing field this season, I can’t help myself with the 3.5. This game could very well come down to the final couple of minutes, and I can see it being decided by a field goal. Also, while I don’t always play the player props I write up in these primetime previews, I am putting a tiny something on Samuel to have at least five catches.
Bet: Commanders +3.5 (-108) & Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (-101 – 0.5 units)
NOTE: If I’m playing a side, total or player prop, I’ll mark it as a “bet” instead of a “lean” in this part of the article. I’ll also add it to the VSiN picks page, meaning it’s one of my official plays for the week. I do not play any “leans” and they won’t be included in my season-long record.
