NFC East
One of the most interesting statistical anomalies in the NFL is that the NFC East Division has not had a repeat champion since 2001-04 when the Philadelphia Eagles ripped off four in a row. Since then, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys have won it seven times, while the New York Giants and Washington Redskins/Football Team have won it three times apiece.
In that span, the division has claimed four Super Bowl titles and one other NFC Championship. Parity has kind of been a thing in this division over the last 20 years, but it sure feels like the Eagles and the Cowboys have been the teams to beat going into most of the recent seasons. That dynamic seems to have changed now thanks to a new kid on the block.
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On the heels of a stunningly successful season for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders enter the 2025 season with high hopes. How could they not after their first postseason win in nearly 20 years? Washington’s playoff push came with a 12-5 record, the franchise’s best since 1991 and only their fourth double-digit winning season since the George H. W. Bush administration.
While other teams have had strong seasons here and there, the picture of consistency in the NFC East is the Eagles, who have bookended a stretch of seven playoff appearances in eight seasons with Super Bowl victories. The Eagles completely dismantled the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX to get revenge for their loss to former head coach Andy Reid in Super Bowl LVII in 2023.
The run for Philly started in “special” fashion against the Patriots in Super Bowl LII and they’ve only finished lower than second in the division once, which happened during the weird 2020 COVID season that wound up being the last under Doug Pederson.
The Eagles and Commanders stand out, but the most intriguing team in the division may very well be the Cowboys. It feels like Dallas has been a punching bag for fans and the media over the last 18 months, even though they had three straight 12-5 seasons that resulted in playoff appearances and scored over 500 points in two of them before last year’s disappointing 7-10 effort. Of course, maybe ending a 30-year NFC Championship Game drought would help change the narrative.
With the Giants ready to bring up the rear, many expect a two-horse race, but are the Cowboys ready for a renaissance?
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Dallas Cowboys
Owner, president, general manager, and Landman actor Jerry Jones turns 83 one day after the Cowboys’ Week 6 game against Carolina. Three days later, first-time NFL head coach Brian Schottenheimer turns 52. Maybe some of the negative sentiment about the team comes from the fact that Jones simply promoted a career assistant in Schottenheimer from OC after the dismissal of Mike McCarthy.
At least the rest of the coaching staff has been revamped, as Klayton Adams, most recently the offensive line coach for Arizona, and Matt Eberflus, who was fired as the Bears head coach in Week 13, hold the two coordinator positions. We can certainly debate the merits of Eberflus as a head coach, but he was a highly-regarded DC with the Colts for four seasons after getting hired away from his position as the Cowboys linebackers coach for seven seasons.
Offense
As we look at the 2025 season, let’s start with the obvious. Dak Prescott has to stay healthy. Prescott started eight games with a disappointing 11/8 TD/INT ratio and the team only went 3-5 in his starts. When Prescott played all 17 games during the 2023 season, he led the league in completions and passing touchdowns en route to a runner-up finish for the MVP award. That is one of just two full seasons for Prescott over the last five campaigns.
But, it wasn’t all about Prescott last season. Dallas had a dearth of depth, as Rico Dowdle ran for 1,079 yards and nobody else ran for more than 226. Dowdle had three times more carries (235) than the next closest guy (74). Similarly, CeeDee Lamb’s 101 catches dramatically outpaced everybody else and so did his 152 targets. Dowdle is gone, but Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders should form something of a tandem and the Cowboys traded for George Pickens to put with Lamb, Jalen Tolbert, and TE Jake Ferguson.
Defense
It has to be a good sign for the culture of the locker room under Schottenheimer and some of the other new hires that Micah Parsons showed up to voluntary OTAs despite his ongoing – and very public – contract negotiation. Parsons was limited to 13 games last season and still paced the team with 12 sacks. With DeMarvion Overshown out virtually all season, Parsons will have to step up even more and so will Osa Odighizuwa, whose 23 QB Hits were a career-best last season.
The Eberflus defenses with the Colts and also the Bears were big on stopping the run and forcing takeaways. Inheriting a defense that was third in sacks with 52 is a good start, but the Cowboys were 29th in yards per carry allowed, so there is work to be done there.
Outlook
Four of the six NFC East games look tough and the Cowboys drew the NFC North and AFC West, plus the Jets, Panthers, and Cardinals with the third-place schedule. The dark McCarthy cloud regarding his future has dissipated now and that should mitigate some distractions. The Cowboys were 31st in red zone offensive success and 32nd in red zone defensive success and positive regression in those two areas could come with a healthy Prescott and new coordinators.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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New York Giants
The quest to find a franchise quarterback continues for the Giants, who bid adieu to Daniel Jones last season. The Giants haven’t had a QB throw at least 10 TD passes since 2022 and at least 20 TD passes since 2019. Veteran signal caller Russell Wilson (or Jameis Winston!) could snap that trend this season, but the Giants are still the third betting choice for the “Fewest Wins.” Perhaps 25th overall pick Jaxson Dart is the answer and the Giants probably need to find that out this season at some point.
Brian Daboll gets another kick at the can despite a 3-14 showing last season and an 18-32-1 record overall. No chef can make a Michelin Star dish with these ingredients, but John Mara, Joe Schoen, and others have to decide if Daboll is who they want to lead the future of the franchise following another lost season.
Offense
Amongst the doom and gloom in the NYC area, some bright spots did emerge last season. Malik Nabers is a legitimate stud, as he caught 109 balls on 170 targets over 15 games and Wan’Dale Robinson looks like a bona fide NFL player with 93 grabs on 140 targets, though he did only have 699 yards. Perhaps the inclusion of Wilson and Dart will give the Giants a bit more of a deep threat, as New York had just an 11.1% Explosive Pass Play Percentage.
Late-round pick Tyrone Tracy Jr. emerged as a competent rusher with 4.4 yards per carry, plus the Giants added some depth on the offensive line and retained Greg Van Roten. Honestly, for a group that finished 30th in yards per play, 31st in possessions ending in points, 32nd in red zone efficiency, and 28th in EPA/play, there is talent and a lot of room for improvement.
Defense
With numerous needs and the No. 3 pick in hand, the Giants opted for Abdul Carter. For a defense that was third in Sack% and tied for eighth in sacks, it might seem like overkill. However, the Giants only had five interceptions as a team and allowed the second-highest completion percentage. The 2025 Draft wasn’t big on cornerbacks, so the Giants will hope that an even stronger pass rush aids the secondary.
In a lot of areas, aside from the turnover department, this wasn’t a poor defense. The Giants were 11th in red zone efficiency, 19th in third-down defense, and had those solid sack numbers. But, they were 29th in EPA/play because of the lack of takeaways and the coverage breakdowns. In a division like the one that the Giants are in, those can be killers and they certainly were a big part of the 3-14 season with an 0-6 record against the NFC East.
Outlook
By no means would I argue that the Giants will be a good team, but assuming there is no blatant tanking and Dart isn’t a total bum, this team can be better than expected. The schedule is miserable, especially up front, so I wouldn’t bet a win total Over now, but I think we can give an in-season Over a shot beginning in Week 5. For the full season, it’s a different story.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Philadelphia Eagles
Good organizations have a knack for seeing into the future. They draft and develop well, as players have time to learn and get accustomed to the playbook before having to deploy them as every-down guys. In the case of the Eagles, they’ll be entering the 2025 season with one of the younger defenses in the NFL.
Veterans like Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and others have moved on, but they’ve been replaced by younger contributors with untapped upside. It is not hard to see why the Eagles have made the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons and have two Lombardi Trophies and one Super Bowl defeat to show for it.
Offense
While there are a lot of new, inexperienced faces on defense, the Eagles offense is nearly intact from last season. The addition of Saquon Barkley may very well have been what put Philly over the top, as he was the AP Offensive Player of the Year with 2,005 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns. Add in 630 yards on the ground from Jalen Hurts, not to mention the 18/5 TD/INT ratio and just over 2,900 passing yards, and this team is among the league leaders in returning production.
One person who is not returning is OC Kellen Moore, who is now the head coach of the Saints. But, the more things change, the more they should mostly stay the same, as Kevin Patullo, the team’s associate head coach and pass game coordinator, is the new OC. He’s worked with Nick Sirianni for a long time and is cut from the Frank Reich tree, so this will once again be an outstanding offense more than capable of finishing sixth in EPA/play or better after landing there last season.
Defense
DC Vic Fangio did stick around and he gets to mold and shape a bunch of young, hungry, talented players into the same type of ferocious defense that the Eagles had last season. They were third in EPA/play, third in third-down defense, sixth in red zone defense, and sixth in takeaways. While this wasn’t the sack-happy defenses of yesteryear under Jonathan Gannon, Philly still led the league in yards per play allowed with 4.7.
Returnees Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean combined for 279 tackles, so the middle of the defense is in great shape. Where the Eagles need to find more production will be in the secondary. CJGJ led the team with six interceptions and was tied for second in pass breakups. Slay led the team with 13. So, now it falls on Quinyon Mitchell and Kelee Ringo, plus a new face at safety in second-rounder Andrew Mukuba. With Reed Blankenship and Cooper DeJean back, there are enough guys to make plays.
Outlook
Good team, high expectations, tough schedule. Lather, rinse, repeat. Along with the division games, the Eagles draw the AFC West and NFC North, plus the first-place schedule brings Tampa Bay, Buffalo, and the LA Rams to the table. There is no reason to believe this team regresses in grand fashion, but they have gone 11-6 and 9-7 following their last two Super Bowl appearances.
Pick: Under 11.5 Wins
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Washington Commanders
Some decent, if not very good, quarterbacks have come through the Washington organization over the years, but Jayden Daniels seems like the hero that the team needed. The other hero is owner Josh Harris, who took over from Dan Snyder and seemingly changed the culture and the reputation of the franchise overnight. It sure seemed like the good vibes impacted everybody.
Having a good year, or even a great year, can happen to any team. Staying at the level of those newfound standards is where the tricky part comes in. Nobody will take the Commanders lightly from this point forward and head coach Dan Quinn and his wunderkind QB have gone from the hunter to the hunted.
Offense
To call the offensive turnaround “dramatic” would be an understatement. The Commanders scored 485 points, the most that they had scored since winning the Super Bowl in 1991. In fact, it was the first time since 2012 that the team had eclipsed 400 points and the first time since 2016 that they got over 350 points. The question now is whether or not that performance was an outlier, indicative of a new baseline, or just the start.
The Commanders were still just 10th in yards per play and Daniels still only had 25 TD passes in 17 games. But, Daniels also led the team in rushing yards and had help from Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler with over 1,700 total yards from scrimmage combined. Not only does most of the offense return, but Deebo Samuel is now on the roster and represents a fun weapon for a team that tied for eighth in turnovers and ranked in the top five in EPA/play.
Defense
Using the 29th pick on offensive tackle Josh Conerly Jr. probably makes sense to protect the prized investment, but it was clear to everybody that the Commanders defense needed some help for the team to really move forward. They had 17 takeaways and 10 of them were fumble recoveries, so the ball happened to bounce their way. With limited takeaways and a bottom-five run defense, the Commanders ranked 22nd in EPA/play.
In hopes of fixing the problems, the Commanders either signed or re-signed 12 players, including DL Javon Kinlaw and S Will Harris. With better depth at the primary positions and another year of growth from youngsters like Mike Sainristil and Quan Martin, who were fourth and fifth on the team in tackles, Washington may be entering a legitimate window of contention, with the tip of the iceberg visible last season. Of course, they do have to find replacements for leading sack man Dante Fowler and second-leading tackler Jeremy Chinn in the process.
Outlook
Like the rest of the NFC East, the Commanders have to contend with the NFC North and AFC West, along with the Falcons, Seahawks, and Dolphins with their second-place schedule. All but two of their road games are back-to-backs, plus a trip to Madrid in mid-November. Teams will plan better for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense this season and I could see a little bit of a slide.
Pick: Under 9.5 Wins
