Denver Broncos 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The first year of the Sean Payton era was a costly dumpster fire. Not only is the coach getting paid a reported $18 million per year, but Denver’s former quarterback, Russell Wilson, wrecked the salary cap on his way out of town. 

Last season was about tearing it down, and this offseason is when the rebuilding begins. Payton praised his young team after minicamp in early June, but he probably will be singing a sad tune by the end of September. The Broncos have missed the playoffs eight straight years, a streak that is headed for nine unless Payton works a miracle with his quarterback prospects.

 

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Offense

Payton has a track record and reputation for being an offensive genius, but last year was proof that even the top coaches need a top-end quarterback to make things work. The Broncos ranked 19th in scoring offense (21.0 ppg), which actually represented a major jump from a league-low 16.9 ppg in 2022. The time for making excuses has ended. Payton has three hand-picked quarterbacks — veteran Jarrett Stidham, rookie Bo Nix and Jets castoff Zach Wilson — and the coach must develop at least one of them into a quality starter. 

Payton seemed to reach by making Nix the 12th overall pick of the draft, and the preseason battle for the starting job is probably between Stidham and Nix, who has drawn some comparisons to Drew Brees. Courtland Sutton leads a receiver group with potential. Who else will step up among Marvin Mims Jr., Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds, rookie Tony Franklin and tight ends Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman? Running backs Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime need to execute Payton’s plan for a power-rushing attack. The line should be in good shape with tackles Mike McGlinchey and Garett Bolles as anchors. Payton certainly sees removing Russell Wilson from the QB room as a case of addition by subtraction.

Defense

The most embarrassing moment of Payton’s debut season was the Broncos’ 70-20 loss at Miami in late September. A Denver defense that was a laughingstock eventually showed significant improvement for coordinator Vance Joseph. During an eight-game stretch from mid-October to mid-December, the Broncos allowed 16 ppg, including a 24-9 victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Two of last year’s defensive leaders, safety Justin Simmons and linebacker Josey Jewell, must be replaced, however. The new leaders will be corner Pat Surtain II, linemen Zach Allen and Malcolm Roach, and linebackers Jonathon Cooper, Baron Browning and Alex Singleton. Don’t overlook this under-the-radar move: Jim Leonhard, the former interim coach and defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, has been added as defensive pass-game coordinator.

Outlook

The Denver Broncos’ season win totals at DraftKings have been in steep decline, from 10 in 2022 to 8.5 in 2023 to 5.5 this season. An argument can be made that this is the time to bet Over with the market number hitting rock bottom. Payton’s 8-9 finish in his Denver debut — the exact record we predicted here a year ago — turned out to be respectable, considering Denver was left for dead after starting 1-5. 

The Broncos’ turnaround did involve some close-game luck, with four of the wins coming by three points or fewer. The mess left by former coach Nathaniel Hackett is mostly in the rear-view mirror, although Wilson leaves behind $85 million in dead salary-cap charges over the next two years. 

This is Payton’s roster and, while his credibility is undeniable, his quarterbacks are the big question mark. A schedule featuring non-division road games against the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens and Bengals is tough, so predicting six or more wins seems ambitious, and this is a lean to a 5-12 finish.

Denver Broncos Pick:  Under 5.5 Wins

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