NFL First Touchdown
And then there were eight. We’re down to four games this weekend, with two on Saturday and two on Sunday and just seven NFL games left for this season. At least we still have “The Big Game”, Super Bowl 60 in Santa Clara, California, so the drama continues to be at a fever pitch. While we have picks, previews, and all sorts of coverage on those games, this is all about trying to isolate the First Touchdown Scorer and cash some prop bets.
We’ve got 18 data points now for six of these teams and 17 data points for the two No. 1 seeds coming off of playoff byes. So, we have a pretty decent idea of what to expect, even though quarterbacks and coaches can definitely narrow their focuses at this time of the year and look to more trusted personnel in these high-leverage matchups. Something to keep in mind.
Let’s look at the First Touchdown Scorers by position from the Wild Card Weekend.
QB: 1 (Bills)
RB: 2 (Panthers, Bears)
WR: 5 (Packers, Texans, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers)
TE: 2 (Patriots, Eagles)
D/ST: 0
No TD: 2 (Chargers, Steelers)
By position during the regular season, it was 36, 176, 187, 82, 26, and 36 in that order, plus one offensive lineman TD. So, we had 36 teams not score a TD over 272 regular games and had two over the six games last week. Interesting to be sure. Will we add any more this week?
You can check out the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker to see everybody’s 2025 results. Here are where things stand with the playoff teams.
Here are the results for the remaining playoff teams:
| Playoff teams | First TD of game/games played | Success rate |
| Seahawks | 12/17 | 70.60% |
| Rams | 11/18 | 61.10% |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.80% |
| 49ers | 10/18 | 55.60% |
| Bears | 10/18 | 55.60% |
| Texans | 10/18 | 55.60% |
| Bills | 9/18 | 50.00% |
| Patriots | 8/18 | 44.40% |
By rank, the final eight teams are:
- Seahawks – 3rd
- Rams – T-6th
- Broncos – T-8th
- 49ers, Bears, Texans – T-11th
- Bills – T-18th
- Patriots – T-21st
Recent streaks and miscellaneous notes for the playoff teams:
- The Bills have not scored the first TD in six of their last seven games (Week 18); they are now 3/6 against playoff teams this season (NE, CAR, HOU // NE, PHI, JAX)
- The Bears have not scored on their first possession since Week 9, but have scored the first TD in 6/10 games since; they are now 3/6 against playoff teams (0/3 vs. Green Bay) this season (PIT, PHI, SF // GB, GB, GB)
- The Broncos have only scored a TD on their first possession in 2/17 games and haven’t had a FTD from a RB since Week 11; they are 3/6 against playoff teams this season (HOU, GB, LAC // LAC, PHI, JAX)
- The Texans have not had a non-WR offensive first TD since Week 14, but they have scored the first TD in five of their last six; they are now 3/9 against playoff teams this season (SF, LAC, PIT // LAR, JAX, SEA, DEN, JAX, BUF)
- Puka Nacua has scored the Rams first TD in the last two weeks after not doing so since Week 2; they are now 6/9 against playoff teams this season (HOU, JAX, SF, SEA, CAR, CAR // PHI, SF, SEA)
- Since Week 7, six of the Patriots first TDs have come from TE and have scored the first TD in five of the last six games; they are now 2/4 against playoff teams (BUF, LAC // PIT, BUF)
- The 49ers have not had a first score TD from a RB since prior to their bye in Week 13 (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 No TD); they are now 4/9 against playoff teams (SEA, LAR, CAR, PHI // JAX, HOU, LAR, CHI, SEA)
- Zach Charbonnet has the first TD for the Seahawks in each of the last three games and they’ve scored the first TD in nine of the last 11; they are 5/8 against playoff teams this season (PIT, HOU, LAR, CAR, SF // SF, JAX, LAR)
You can check the First Touchdown Tracker to see the 3+ TD guys. I’ll consider that in my handicapping, but won’t post the entire list the rest of the way.
With that, let’s get to the Divisional Round action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Divisional Round Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Bills (50%) at Broncos (58.8%) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
49ers (55.6%) at Seahawks (70.6%) – 8 p.m. ET
Texans (55.6%) at Patriots (44.4%) – Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Rams (61.1%) at Bears (55.6%) – 6:30 p.m. ET
Again, really small advantages here, if any at all, especially when you consider a team like the Patriots, who has the lowest percentage of the remaining eight teams, has gotten a lot better late in the season. Also, the Texans and Rams may have some very bad weather to deal with, even though they are more effective in this particular stat category.
So, rather than try to figure out who will score first, I’ll look at one player from each team in the two games I’m most interested in.
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Divisional Round First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Bills: Khalil Shakir +1300 // Broncos: Bo Nix +1700
Let’s start on the Bills side, where everybody knows Josh Allen has limited bodies at wide receiver. I do think Keon Coleman at +2800 is a consideration here, too. But he did only play 43% of the offensive snaps in last week’s game against the Jags, with both Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis getting hurt. Shakir, meanwhile, led all skill players with 71% of the snaps. The only guys higher were the offensive linemen and Allen.
Shakir is basically going to have to be an every-down player here and perhaps he can bust one, as the Broncos allowed nine passing TD in the first half compared to just five rushing TD.
As far as Nix goes, the Broncos do slant heavily towards Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin in the red zone with nearly 40 targets between the two of them. Even with J.K. Dobbins hurt, Harvey only has 24 red zone carries on the season, although his playing time did skyrocket when he got the role as the feature back. We all know Buffalo’s run defense is porous, but Harvey’s at a short enough price to make me look elsewhere.
Nix had a couple of rushing scores in December and I always operate under the thought that mobile QBs are more willing to put their bodies at risk in the playoffs, thus more carries. As it is, Nix had 17 red zone carries and five touchdowns during the regular season. The Bills also allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to QB on the fourth-fewest rush attempts.
Texans: Jayden Higgins +1800, C.J. Stroud +3000 // Patriots: Drake Maye +1300
A method to the madness here with taking both QBs. As of now, the forecast models look relatively tame in Foxboro, but snow could be flying around during the game, especially if the timing of the snowfall moves up a little bit. It’s going to be cold and the ball is going to be slick. In the scoring areas, Josh McDaniels may simply prefer not to risk Maye giving the ball to somebody else.
As it is, Maye had 20 red zone rushing attempts, with 32 for TreVeyon Henderson and 25 for Rhamondre Stevenson. Each guy only had four targets, so that’s not really a concern. If the Patriots can get close enough, much like my thoughts on the visiting Texans, the fewer hands touching the ball, the better.
Stroud, as an indoor QB at the NFL level, is a big dude. Obviously his concussion history is rather concerning, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it against a stout Patriots defense.
Higgins is one of the wide receiver options with Nico Collins likely out after missing Thursday’s practice. Christian Kirk has a shorter number as more of a known name, but Higgins was second among WR to Collins in red zone targets during the regular season. Dalton Schultz at 14/1 makes a lot of sense, too, but for all of his targets and catches this season, he only has three TDs.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Divisional Round content in our Betting Hub.
