It is crazy to think that we only have seven NFL games left for this season. Well, eight of you want to count the Pro Bowl, but I don’t think that you do. Four of them will be played this weekend, as the NFL playoff field drops from eight to four in advance of conference championship weekend.
We’ve got two underdogs of over a touchdown on Saturday, as the two No. 1 seeds are heavy favorite per the NFL betting odds and smaller numbers on Sunday, but the Lions are still approaching a touchdown as the home favorite in that one. Will it be a chalky weekend in the NFL or will underdogs be barking?
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Keep an eye on the NFL betting splits and also give the Vegas NFL odds a look to see where the lines might go as kickoff approaches.
Here are my favorite plays for the Divisional Round:
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 43.5)
Even though the weather forecast doesn’t look ideal for throwing the football, that is something that could hurt both teams in this game. Clearly it has the potential to hurt the Texans more, but this was a Texans group that ranked sixth in Rush EPA defense and led the NFL in Rush Success Rate against.
It is a group that has a healthy Blake Cashman and Will Anderson Jr., plus DeMeco Ryans is an excellent head coach whose background is on the defensive side. I really do feel like the Texans can keep this game close and put a real scare into the Ravens here. Baltimore’s top guys also haven’t played in essentially three weeks, so a slow start could definitely be in the cards.
Pick: Texans +9.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45)
I think the spread is pretty fair on this game. The total might be a little light at 45, given that the forecast right now shows sunshine and fairly tame winds. But, my favorite play here is a little bit of a square one and that is Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards.
This will be Allen’s 10th career playoff game and he’s gone over that number in six of them, including last week against the Steelers. He’s had 88 and 68 rushing yards in his two career playoff games against the Chiefs. Like a lot of mobile QBs with dual-threat capability, they try to avoid taking unnecessary hits throughout the regular season, but everything is on the table in the quest for a Super Bowl. I think he’ll be running around a fair amount here, especially against a Chiefs defense that grades well in a lot of metrics.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
Another play I like in this game centers around Mecole Hardman. Based on the frustration shown on a weekly basis by Patrick Mahomes, I can’t see him being very charitable towards Hardman, who had just three targets and one catch for three yards against the Dolphins. Hardman was the subject of what probably should have been defensive holding, but instead looked like a player just giving up on the ball in that Wild-Card game against Miami.
With the way that Rashee Rice has emerged, Mahomes’ rapport with Travis Kelce, and the likelihood that Mahomes would rather look for Justin Watson or Noah Gray, I don’t see Hardman being a focal point of the passing game this week.
Pick: Under 16.5 Receiving Yards
