Dolphins vs. Bills – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are my favorite Thursday Night Football props for tonight’s AFC East matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.
Thursday Night Football Props
Jaylen Waddle Over 50.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Waddle looked good last week, and generally speaking, he’s been the best option against zone-heavy teams while Tyreek Hill has been the man-beater. Tyreek is crushing zone these days, but Waddle is also doing well, averaging a strong 2.27 YPRR on 41 routes against zone this year. And while he was quiet in the matchup last year, Waddle has had some nice games against this zone-heavy defense, like the 4/102 and 5/143/1 he got against them when the offense was clicking in 2022. The offense looked better last week against the Patriots, and Waddle got 109 air yards and caught five of six targets, so with Miami 12-point road underdogs, and barring a major injury, I’d be very surprised if Waddle doesn’t hit this number. I actually think it’s a positive that they are on the road, since the boo birds were out in Miami last week.
Dalton Kincaid Over 30.5 receiving yards (-120, Fanatics)
You never feel warm and fuzzy about backing Kincaid, since they spread the ball around in Buffalo and since he’s still rolling with an underwhelming 58% route share through two weeks. However, Kincaid has four receptions in each of his first two games, and per Fantasy Points Data, Kincaid ranks fourth in A.S.S. (.089) at the position through two weeks (average separation score). Miami’s defense can be attacked in a variety of ways, but they’ve been hit hard underneath and in the middle of the field, and rookie Tyler Warren got them for 7/76 in Week 1. Miami has given up 8.86 YPA to slot and inline targets, ninth highest in the NFL with an 81.8% completion percentage, which is eighth highest in the NFL, which includes a perfect 12/12 to inline targets. Miami also has run 61.9% two-high coverage, seventh most in the NFL, and Kincaid last season averaged a very promising 20.6% target rate and 2.31 YPRR against two-high. As long as Miami shows up and gives Buffalo a game for 2-3 quarters, Kincaid should get the 3-4 grabs he needs to hit this.
De’Von Achane Over 39.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)
The one thing Miami still does well is scheming up passing game opportunities for Achane, who was all over the place last week, catching a lot of passes that were glorified handoffs (he’s averaging an aDOT of -.8 yards). Speaking of Week 2, 72% of the pass targets went to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Achane, who led them with a massive 31% target share. The Bills won’t have DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano, which can’t hurt, and Miami is a 12-point road underdog in a game with the third-highest total on the board, so we should expect Achane to approach double-digit targets. The Bills gave up the second-most receptions per game (5.4) and the most receiving YPG (44.1) to RBs last season, and Achane caught a whopping 15 balls against them last year for 127/2 receiving.
James Cook Over 84.5 rushing/receiving yards (-118, BetMGM)
Just in case Cook opens the game making a big play or two in the passing game, and then he’s not needed for higher volume as a runner in a game the Bills completely control, I’ll roll with the rushing/receiving prop for Cook, who could easily hit 85 yards rushing only, as he easily did last week with 21/132 on the ground. Miami is giving up the 10th-most rushing YPG (101.5), and the seventh-most receptions per game (5.5) to RBs so far, and backups Ray Davis and Ty Johnson have only 1 catch for -1 yards on four targets so far this year (Cook has 6/61 receiving on six targets). We may get pinched here if Miami doesn’t show up and put up a fight, but there are 3-4 scenarios in which he hits this number, and only 1-2 where he doesn’t (like an injury or blowout).
Khalil Shakir Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
If I knew Miami was going to put up a fight, I’d love this pick, but I still like it enough to back it. Miami hasn’t given up much production to the slot just yet, but as mentioned above, they allow a healthy 8.86 YPA to slot and inline targets, 9th highest in the NFL, and an 81.8% completion percentage, which is eighth highest in the NFL. Miami is very zone-heavy and has run 61.9% two-high coverage, seventh most in the NFL, which is a positive for Shakir, who caught his only target (4%) for 12 yards on a 55% route share last week against a man-heavy defense. He has the best schematic matchup of all the wideouts, and Miami last year ran Cover 3 32% of the time, and Shakir crushed that with a fat .65 fantasy points per route run. That explains how he got 5/54 and 6/50 receiving in two games against the Dolphins last season, so if Miami can put up a fight, I think we’ll be fine here. I can see Shakir opening the game with 1-2 grabs on their opening drive, given the good schematic matchup.
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