The Week 10 Monday Night Football game features the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 10 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Eagles vs. Packers
When: Monday, November 10 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Lambeau Field at Green Bay, Wisconsin
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Eagles vs. Packers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, November 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Packers -118, Eagles -102
Spread: Packers -1.5 (-102), Eagles +1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 45.5 (-112), Under 45.5 (-108)
Eagles vs. Packers Analysis
When I went on Cashing Out with Dustin Swedelson on Monday, I gave out Philadelphia to win this game at +118. The prices have come down a bit since then, but the Eagles still feel like the right side. Under Nick Sirianni, Philadelphis is 21-7 straight-up in games with odds of +130 to -150, and the Eagles have won those games by an average of 5.9 points per game. Sirianni is also 9-0 SU against the NFC North with the Eagles, winning those games by an average of 11.0 points per game. And perhaps most importantly, Philly is 18-1 SU after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in back-to-back games under Sirianni. That one’s big because shutting down the run again would put the Eagles in great shape.
Green Bay is third in the league in EPA per play (0.171) this season, but Josh Jacobs’ ability to pick up big chunks of yards is a huge part of that. Well, Philadelphia is right outside the top-10 in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.094), so there’s a real chance the Eagles do a decent job of taking Jacobs out of this game — especially with coordinator Vic Fangio having had two weeks to prepare for Matt LaFleur’s looks. And if Jacobs doesn’t have a very strong game here, Philly will like its chances of avoiding a big-time Jordan Love performance. The Packers might be first in the league in Dropback EPA per play (0.328), but teams feel they can throw Love off by consistently applying pressure on him. Also, Love lost his most dangerous weapon in Tucker Kraft, who tore his ACL last week.
We also saw Love poop the bed against this defense last year. In the postseason, Philadelphia hosted Green Bay in the Wild Card Round. The Eagles ended up winning that game 22-10, picking Love off three times and preventing him from throwing a single touchdown pass. Playing in Green Bay should help a little. But will he be able to torch a well-rested Philadelphia defense without his best pass-catcher? After all, Love is coming off a disastrous game against a below-average Carolina team — and that was a game the Packers lost at Lambeau.
There’s also no reason not to believe in the Philadelphia offense off a bye. This team is already eighth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.096) this season, and they have put up at least 28 points over the last three games. With extra time to get ready for Green Bay, it’s hard to imagine a complete dud. The Packers have actually been shaky against the run this season, ranking 17th in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.073). That could mean a big game is coming for Saquon Barkley, who averaged 114.0 rushing yards per game against Green Bay in two meetings last year. Barkley also found the end zone twice when they met in Sao Paulo. If Barkley does have success in this one, Jalen Hurts’ job becomes much easier.
The running games will be key here, though. There’s a good chance this game is cold and features difficult weather. Well, I like Philly’s combination of a running game and running defense more than I like Green Bay’s.
Eagles vs. Packers Player Props
Lean: DeVonta Smith Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Our WR-CB Matchup Tool likes Smith’s matchup with Javon Bullard more than any other for the Philadelphia wideout group. Our OptaAI prop projections also happen to have Smith going for 79.23 receiving yards here, giving him the highest edge to an Over/Under of anybody for Week 10. Smith has also been playing very well coming into this one, averaging 107.5 yards per game over the last four weeks. He’s just consistently getting open down the field, and Hurts likes going his direction on big downs. I’d just say to make sure the weather is alright before firing this one up.
Eagles vs. Packers Pick
The Eagles are a little better than the Packers on both sides of the ball, even if we have seen some lackluster performances from Philadelphia this season. The Eagles are also coming off an extra week of rest, they have Nolan Smith returning from injury, and Jaelan Phillips and Jaire Alexander should give this team a boost.
Bet: Eagles ML (+118)
