Early NFL Divisional Round Sharp Report

By
Josh Appelbaum
-
884

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In the meantime, let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs…

 

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 52) 

The Jaguars (10-8) are the 4-seed and just beat the Chargers 31-30 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 2-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-3) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. This line opened with Kansas City listed as high as a 9.5-point home favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with the Chiefs. However, we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -9.5 to -8.5. This signals some respected money grabbing the Jaguars plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog. Playoff dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 33-16 ATS (67%) over the past five postseasons. The Chiefs are just 5-10 ATS (33%) as a favorite this season, including 2-5 ATS (29%) as a home favorite and 3-6 ATS (33%) as a big favorite of -7 or more. The Jags are 8-5 ATS (62%) as a dog. The total hasn’t budged off the opener of 52. Currently 75% of bets are taking the over. 

 

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 48)

The Giants (10-7-1) are the 6-seed and just upset the Vikings 31-24 in the Wild Card round, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Eagles (14-3) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is grabbing the points with the Giants. However, despite receiving 70% of bets the Giants haven’t budged off +7.5. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Eagles, with books reluctant to drop the line down to -7 for fear of handing out a better number to contrarian Eagles backers. Philadelphia has value as a contrarian favorite, only receiving 30% of bets. The Giants are a trendy dog that savvy bettors typically look to fade. Sharps have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 47 to 48. The over is receiving 77% of bets are 89% of money, signaling both Pro and Joe support. The Eagles are 8-4 to the over in their last 12 games. The Giants are 4-2 to the over in their last six games. 

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5, 50.5)

The Bengals (13-4) are the 3-seed and just edged the Ravens 24-17 in the Wild Card round but failed to cover as 8-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (14-3) are the 2-seed and just squeaked by the Dolphins 34-31 in the Wild Card round, failing to cover as 14-point home favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the Bengals. However, despite receiving only 29% of bets the Bills have moved from -3.5 to -5. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" reverse line movement on Buffalo, with pros laying the points. Wiseguys have also leaned over, raising the total from 50 to 50.5. Currently 80% of bets and 85% of money is on the over. Keep an eye on the weather here, as the early forecast calls for mid 30s with rain and 10-15 MPH winds. 

 

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 46)

The Cowboys (13-5) are the 5-seed and just crushed the Bucs 31-14 in the Wild Card round, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the 49ers (14-4) are the 2-seed and just beat up the Seahawks 41-23 in the Wild Card round, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with San Francisco at home. However, despite receiving 69% of bets we’ve seen the 49ers remain frozen at -4. Some shops are even inching down to -3.5. Reading between the lines, this signals sharp liability on the Cowboys plus the points. Road dogs are 33-21 ATS (61%) in the last five postseasons. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 46. This drop is notable because 79% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. This is evidence of sharp under money. 

 

Updated Super Bowl Odds (DraftKings)

Chiefs +310

Bills +350

49ers +450

Eagles +550

Cowboys +650

Bengals +700

Giants +2500

Jaguars +3000

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