Early NFL Week 12 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:

In the NFL, the key to a good defense is a pass rush. If you cannot get pressure on the quarterback, it’s tough for even an elite secondary to hold up in coverage. We have seen multiple teams struggle with that this season including the Jets and Falcons. While they are among six teams on bye this week, keep an eye on QB props against them next week. Bettors and fans seem to forget teams and angles when the bye week happens, but not me.

Playing against this Falcons defense specifically has inflated my bankroll the last two weeks with Derek Carr’s passing prop at 193.5 in Week 10 and Bo Nix at 207.5 in Week 11. Both went for close to 200 yards in the first half versus the nonexistent Falcons pass defense and easily cleared their laddered props. After the bye, Atlanta faces the newly pass-happy Chargers in Week 13, so get ready to load up on Justin Herbert props.

 

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Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments I made this week:

Move them up: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts surprised the market and won as four-point dogs over the lowly Jets this weekend, but their offensive game plan is why they’re moving up. Anthony Richardson delivered both through the air and on the ground in his return to the starting QB role. Richardson ran the ball 10 times, just his second double-digit output this year (both wins), while Taylor added 24 carries. The effectiveness of that ground game opened up the passing attack, which had it’s most efficient day of the year as Richardson went 20-for-30 with 272 yards and no interceptions.

There are still plenty of warts on the defensive side, specifically the secondary, but if this offense can continue to be dynamic on the ground to set up the pass, the Colts will be able to outscore opponents. They have the Lions on deck in Week 12, with a total of 50.5, which seems very correlated. If the Colts cover, it will be because the offense keeps up and this game goes Over.

Move them down: San Francisco 49ers

Injuries once again have been a huge issue for the 49ers, but the players on the field are just not producing. If Jauan Jennings is going to be WR1 on this team, they are in trouble. No one else caught more than four balls for 27 yards on Sunday, and the wide recievers outside of Jennings totaled five catches for 29 yards. I have no idea why Ricky Pearsall’s production and routes cratered this week, but that created a huge hole for the 49ers offense. With George Kittle out, you cannot have fullback Kyle Juszczyk and Pearsall with the same number of targets.

After pass rusher Nick Bosa left the game, Seattle was able to move the ball effectively and put together multiple drives, including the game-winning touchdown with 12 seconds left on the clock.

Now at 5-5, the 49ers need to find answers quickly if they want to make the playoffs, much less be a force when they get there.

Early Week 12 NFL Best Bet:

The Under got home last week in the Minnesota-Tennessee game despite a 98-yard touchdown from the dog. While I like the Under with both teams again this week, let’s focus on Tennessee here.

They still have a bottom-five offense with a good enough defense to keep teams in check. They go on the road to face a Texans team that will be hellbent on running the football again. This total was 41.5 on Monday morning and reopened at 42 after the Texans’ game Monday night, so let’s lock in the key of 42 before it disappears again.

Week 12 NFL Best Bet: Titans-Texans Under 42

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