Early NFL Week 13 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

We’re only two days away from stuffing our faces and watching NFL football all day to escape the uncomfortable political conversations our parents and grandparents instigate. Given that this is my last article before Thanksgiving, I would like to give a very sincere “Thank you” to those of you who have continued to support me in my year and a half at VSiN and my independent endeavors otherwise. Seven years ago, when the T Shoe Index was nothing more than handwritten numbers on loose-leaf paper, I would have killed to be in the position I am now, so I don’t take it for granted. I’d also like to give a special shoutout to VSiN.com Managing Editor and my now great friend, Adam Burke, who saw the vision I had with TSI and gave me an opportunity to broaden my horizons and help get TSI out into the world. I could go on, but now let’s see where we can make some money with our early Week 13 NFL best bets!

 

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Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (-5.5; 42)  

Denver has been a pleasant surprise as this season has progressed. They started a little rocky but have found their groove offensively and are putting up some big numbers, especially considering they have a rookie QB who some felt was way overdrafted in the first round. They’ll take on a Browns team led by a resurgent Jameis Winston, who’s been way better than the nine-figure man they started the season with, Deshaun Watson. TSI projects Denver -8.5 here, and I love the spot with the Browns coming off a huge Thursday night win against rival Pittsburgh. Denver is up to #6 in TSI power ratings, while Cleveland sits at just #26. Cleveland tends to play divisional teams well and then turn back into a pumpkin when they venture out beyond the AFC North. I think Denver can blow this game wide open.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Denver Broncos -5.5 (Play to -6.5)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5; 45.5)  

Coming into the season, I would’ve thought these teams would be very offensively-led, with complementary defenses doing just enough; however, the data would indicate that is reversed as the season has gone on. The Cardinals, coming off a game in which they scored just 6 points against the Seahawks, are middle of the pack in TSI offensive ratings, but up to #3 (!!) in TSI defense; the Vikings, similarly, are bottom third offensively but #7 defensively. So, what does all that mean pertaining to a betting angle here? This screams Under to me, as TSI is projecting just 39.5 points in this one, and we’re getting above the relatively key number of 45. This game could also provide some live betting value if Justin Jefferson or Marvin Harrison Jr. catch an early touchdown bomb, you could grab a live Under at an even better number, but I’m certainly comfortable taking the pregame 45.5.

Week 13 NFL Best Bet: Under 45.5 (Play to 44)

For more NFL Week 13 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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