Week 3 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 4. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 42.5)

The Saints (2-1) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to the Eagles 15-12 and losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (1-2) just came up short against the Chiefs, losing 22-17 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and they’re rushing to grab the point with road dog New Orleans. However, despite the Saints receiving 65% of spread bets we’ve seen the line move further toward Atlanta -1 to -1.5. Some shops have even briefly reached Falcons -2. Essentially, all movement and liability is on the contrarian favorite Falcons, who are taking in sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement. Atlanta is only receiving 35% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 86-57 ATS (60%) to the home team, historically. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 42.5. The under is only receiving 25% of bets but 41% of dollars. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 279-215 (57%) with an 8% ROI since 2021.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 43.5)

The Vikings (3-0) just demolished the Texans 34-7, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Packers (2-1) just brushed aside the Titans 30-14, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Vikings, who are undefeated and one of the top Cinderella stories of the young season. However, despite 67% of spread bets taking Minnesota, we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Green Bay +2.5 to -2.5. Some shops have even briefly reached Packers -3. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor Green Bay. The Packers are only receiving 33% of spread bets but 73% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. If this betting split and line move stands, it will likely be the biggest “Pros vs Joes” game of the week, with the public all over undefeated Minnesota but wiseguys backing the contrarian favorite Green Bay. This line move might also be evidence of Jordan Love returning to action after missing the past two games with a leg injury. Those looking to follow the sharp Packers move but wary of laying the points around a key number in what might end up being a close game could instead target Green Bay on the moneyline at -140.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 48) at Carolina Panthers

The Bengals (0-3) just fell to the Commanders 38-33, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. Conversely, the Panthers (1-2) just upset the Raiders 36-22, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a high as a 7-point road favorite. The public still won’t quit the Bengals despite their poor start and 66% of spread bets are laying the points with Cincinnati. However, despite receiving a lopsided share of public support, we’ve seen the Bengals fall from -7 to -4.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Carolina, as the line is moving in their direction despite receiving only 34% of bets. Dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 15-6 ATS (71%) with a 37% ROI so far this season. Carolina enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Sunday while the Bengals played Monday Night and are now must travel on a short week. Andy Dalton is 46-35 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI as a dog in his career. Those looking to follow the sharp Carolina move could also entertain the Panthers in a “Wong Teaser” (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. Sharps have hit the over as well, raising the total from 45.5 to 47.5. The over is receiving 55% of bets but 84% of money, indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action.

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 50.5)

The Commanders (2-1) just shocked the Bengals 38-33, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Cardinals (1-2) just came up short against the Lions, losing 20-13 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public sees two young, high-flying teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split, we’ve seen the Cardinals fall from -4.5 to -3.5. Several shops are even juicing up Commanders +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible further fall down to +3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because theoretically the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the number. So, based on the line move, we can infer that pro money is siding with the road dog Commanders plus the points. Road dogs are 20-14 ATS (59%) this season and 523-439 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Washington has value as a “dog who can score” system match (27.3 PPG, 5th best in NFL), thereby keeping pace or leaving open the possibility of a back door cover. Kyler Murray is just 10-15 ATS (40%) as a favorite in his career, including 6-11 ATS (35%) as a home favorite. We could also be looking at a shootout here, as the total has ticked up from 49.5 to 50.5. The over is receiving 53% of bets but 74% of dollars, a notable sharp bet discrepancy.

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