The NFL regular season is over and now the real fun begins. Bettors have six Wild Card games to choose from this week. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 42.5) at Houston Texans

The Chargers (11-6) are the 5-seed and just brushed aside the Raiders 34-20 in Week 18, covering as 7-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (10-7) are the 4-seed and just took down the Titans 23-14, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re hammering the Chargers minus the points. However, despite receiving 82% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen Los Angeles remain frozen at -3 and even dip down to -2.5 at some shops. Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expect them to rise from -3 to -3.5 or -4. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on Texans +3, as the line has stayed the same or moved slightly in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Wild Card dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 14-1 ATS (93%) since 2017.

Houston is only receiving 18% of spread bets at DraftKings, making the Texans one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Wild Card Weekend. At Circa, which caters to sharper bettors, the Texans are receiving 20% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. For those looking to buy-low on Houston but might miss access to the +3, the Texans are in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot. By taking Houston up from +2.5 to +8.5, bettors are able to pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

Sharps also seem to expect a lower scoring game here, as the total has dipped from as high as 44.5 down to 42.5. This movement is notable because the public is playing the over (69% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. When the total falls at least a half point in a playoff game, the under is 23-17 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2017. The Texans went 11-6 to the under this season, tied with the Giants for the best under team in the NFL.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 50.5)

The Commanders (12-5) are the 6-seed are just held off the Cowboys 23-19 in Week 18 but failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Similarly, the Buccaneers (10-7) are the 3-seed and just beat the Saints 27-19 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, anytime we’ve seen the Bucs creep up to -3.5, we’ve seen sharp buyback on the Commanders plus the hook, dropping the line back down to 3. This signals some smart money eyeing Washington at +3.5. At DraftKings, the Commanders are receiving 51% of spread bets but a hefty 67% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Commanders here, are 39-20 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2017.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it remain relatively stagnant at 50.5. This is the highest total of Wild Card Weekend. At DraftKings, the under is only taking in 30% of bets but 45% of dollars, a sharp discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game. Playoff “high totals” of 47 or more are 28-17 (62%) to the under with a 20% ROI since 2018.

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 47) at Los Angeles Rams

The Vikings (14-3) are the 5-seed and just fell to the Lions 31-9 in Week 18, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (10-7) are the 4-seed and just rested their starters in a Week 18 loss to Seahawks 30-25 but managed to cover as 7-point home dogs.

This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the modest chalk with the Vikings, who have the far better won-loss record. However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen Minnesota fall from -2.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Los Angeles plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. As of now, Los Angeles is one of the top contrarian plays of Wild Weekend, as they are receiving only 32% of spread bets in heavily bet, primetime Monday Night Football showdown.

For those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of a close game that may not cover the spread, consider the Rams in a “Wong Teaser.” By taking Los Angeles up from +1.5 to +7.5, value-driven bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. Wild Card dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 14-1 ATS (93%) since 2017. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 18-9 ATS (67%) since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 24-12 ATS (67%) with a 30% ROI since 2017. If you teased those dogs up 6-points, they improve to 29-7 ATS (81%).

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