Super Bowl Prop Bets:
The big lesson in life, baby, is never be scared of anyone, or anything. – Frank Sinatra
At some point in life, we’ve all been asked the question, or a similar question, “If you could go back in time and spend 24 hours at any point in history, where would you go, who would you see and what would you do?” I’ve never had a problem trying to answer this question: Give me 24 hours with Frank, Dean and Sammy, a bottle of Jack and a trip up on stage at the Sands with all the glitz, the glamor and the mystique of old-school Las Vegas during the peak of the Rat Pack era.
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The crew, at times, was not without its faults, but history says they all knew how to have one hell of a good time, seemingly, all the time. I’m 41 years old. This era predates me and my first trip to Las Vegas (2004) by many years, but it’s an era I think about often between trips to my favorite city and when walking on Fremont and down the Strip. Frank, Dean and Sammy knew the formula for winning in Vegas, and the winning formula is something we’re always striving for. No, I haven’t come up with a formula to recreate the magic that they had. What I do have is a formula to help you get ahead, and hopefully do some winning of your own, while betting props for Super Bowl LIX. Live from the bar, it’s ‘Matty’s 7th Annual List of Exceptional Props’.
Back in 2019, for Super Bowl LIII, I started a deep-dive into the historical outcome of props for all of the Big Games dating back to 2002. Beyond determining win-loss records for over 150 props at the time, I also came up with a value that I decided to call the ‘exceptional rating’.
In short, the ‘exceptional rating’ is nothing more than a way to try and quantify the value of a prop’s betting line, and as a result, the advantage a bettor might have in placing a bet on that prop. How do you calculate the ‘exceptional rating’? I’ll get to that in a minute.
After reviewing over 300 props for Super Bowl LVIII in last season’s article, which included 12 props with an ‘exceptional rating’, I finished with a 4-8 record, down 12 units. I got my keister kicked last season, no doubt, dropping six units early in the second quarter on Jake Moody’s 55-yard field goal (-600 no field goal over 54.5 yards) and then another four units as Moody knocked home a 53-yarder with 1:53 left in the fourth quarter (-400 both teams will not make 2+ field goals). Six seasons in, my record stands at 55-32 (63.2%, +9.15 units).
We fight on.
I look forward to the ‘exceptional rating’ getting back on track for Super Bowl LIX. Here is how to calculate it:
Step 1: Using an odds converter, I determine the implied odds of a prop based on the percentage of time the outcome has been correct or incorrect.
Step 2: I then determine the difference in the odds listed for the prop in the sportsbook and the implied odds calculated in Step 1.
For example:
The team that has scored last has won the Super Bowl in 21 of the last 23 games, or 91.3% of the time. Using the odds converter, this translates to implied odds of -1049. This means I would expect to walk into a sportsbook and lay 10.49 units to win one unit that the team with the final score wins the game. When I reach the sportsbook, I see that I actually need to lay only 2.4 units, or moneyline odds of -240, to win one unit, and I’ve saved 8.09 units from what I expected to have to wager. This allows me to determine my rating, by taking my -1049 implied odds and subtracting the sportsbook’s moneyline odds of -240, giving me an exceptional rating of 809.
In addition to determining an exceptional rating for each prop, I also set a minimum exceptional rating (kind of like a baseline) for a prop to be considered for a wager. The last couple years I’ve set that minimum at an exceptional rating of greater than 500 (the prior two years the value was 400). This year, my minimum rating is 600. Setting a minimum exceptional rating helps ensure that I am responsible with my selections by not betting every prop on the board.
As you review the props, keep a couple of things in mind:
- The vast majority of these props will be available at several books. Take your time and do some homework. Be sure to shop around and find the shop that has the best odds for the side of the prop you are looking to bet. Also be aware that the lines mentioned in this article might have changed since its publication.
- Some books might write props a bit differently from what I’ve captured, but they are actually the same in the end. For example, one book might write: “What will be the first offensive play of the second half? Pass -110 or Run -110?” Another book might write: “Will the first play of the second half be a pass? Yes -110 or No -110?”
- Should you bet props that are calculated below the minimum exceptional rating of 600? That is entirely up to you. The exceptional rating you might apply to your props should just be one weapon in your arsenal against the books. Consider the tendencies of the teams playing throughout the season and their opponents, as well as advice from VSiN personalities, writers and guests when placing your bets. There will be plenty of great bets available that fall below my minimum exceptional value of 600.
- There will be some props with an exceptional value above 600 that will carry an extremely high line (ex: -1800). Consider wagering on these props as you are able while staying within your bankroll.
My Super Bowl LIX Prop Bets
This year I’ve settled on 15 props that I’ll be targeting with an ‘exceptional rating’ of 600 or greater. They are as follows.
| Prop (1u = 1 unit, 4u = 4 units, etc) | My Wager Is On | Historical Yes | Historical No | Implied Wager Odds | Actual Odds I’m Betting | Exceptional Rating | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the game be decided by exactly 11 points? | Yes, 1u | 2, 8.7% | 21, 91.3% | +1049 | +3000 | 1951 | Westgate |
| Will there be an offensive touchdown scored on 4th down? | No, 3.6u | 1, 4.4% | 22, 95.7% | -2199 | -360 | 1839 | William Hill |
| Will there be a kickoff returned for a touchdown? | Yes, 1u | 3, 13.0% | 20, 87.0% | +667 | +2500 | 1833 | BetMGM |
| Will the longest FG in the game be Over 53.5? | No, 5u | 1, 4.4% | 22, 95.7% | -2199 | -500 | 1699 | William Hill |
| Will any player have a 60+ yard run? | No, 7u | 1, 4.4% | 22, 95.7% | -2199 | -700 | 1499 | Circa |
| Will both teams attempt a 2-point conversion? | No, 7u | 1, 4.4% | 22, 95.7% | -2199 | -700 | 1499 | Westgate |
| Will the total rushing yards in the game be Over 286.5? | No, 1.3u | 2, 8.7% | 21, 91.3% | -1049 | -130 | 919 | William Hill |
| Will the total passing yards in the game be Over 434.5? | Yes, 1.45u | 21, 91.3% | 2, 8.7% | -1049 | -145 | 904 | William Hill |
| Will the total rushing touchdowns be Over 2.5? | No, 1u | 3, 13.0% | 20, 87.0% | -667 | +120 | 887 | William Hill |
| Will the game be decided by exactly 4 points? | Yes, 1u | 3, 13.0% | 20, 87.0% | +667 | +1500 | 833 | Westgate |
| Will any player have 25 or more rushing attempts? | No, 2.2u | 2, 8.7% | 21, 91.3% | -1049 | -220 | 829 | William Hill |
| Will the team that scores last win the game? | Yes, 2.4u | 21, 91.3% | 2, 8.7% | -1049 | -240 | 809 | William Hill |
| Will there be a kickoff or punt returned for a touchdown? | Yes, 1u | 4, 17.4% | 19, 82.6% | +475 | +1200 | 725 | William Hill |
| Will there be a successful 4th down conversion? | No, 1u | 12, 52.2% | 11, 47.8% | +109 | +750 | 641 | William Hill |
| Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? | No, 1u | 5, 21.7% | 18, 78.3% | -360 | +260 | 620 | Circa |
| 15 TOTAL WAGERS RISKING | 36.95u | ||||||
In addition to the ‘exceptional rating’ bets, perhaps the most useful tool in this article is the spreadsheet containing the result of 275 props from the last 23 Super Bowls, as well as a breakdown of ‘Square’ results for all four quarters of those games. There are several props on this list (labeled as ‘Infinite’) that have never been beaten one direction or the other. I’ll be adding more as the week continues, so be sure to check it out!
Also, note I already have bigger plans in place for Super Bowl LX. Not only will there be a breakdown of the last 24 years of Big Games, but I’ll also be including what prop records look like over the last 10 seasons.
If you are anything like me, after getting roughed up by the books during the Super Bowl last year, the only thing you’re thinking about is getting every last lost dollar back and then a few extra stacks this year. I’ll be channeling Sinatra’s mantra come Sunday: “The best revenge is massive success.”
Best of luck with all your Super Bowl wagers!
