Each week, I’m giving out my NFL best bets for the weekend’s games. This week, we have four good ones for the NFL Divisional Round. Keep reading to find out what I have and make sure you also check out what my talented VSiN colleagues are playing. Those plays, along with all of our NFL content for the week, are available at our Divisional Round NFL Bet Hub. You can also get all of our picks for the week on the Pro Picks page.
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NFL Best Bets Record: 40-30-1 (+7.53 units)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
This is one of the games that I did an individual write-up for, so make sure you check out that preview. I’m playing the Ravens in this one, even with Baltimore laying a big number. I originally wrote it up when the spread was 8.5, but I wouldn’t hate playing it up to 9.5. The public is heavily betting Houston right now, yet the spread is heading in the other direction. So, it seems like respected money is on Baltimore. That’s generally who you want to side with.
I also just like the match-up for the Ravens. The team has had plenty of time to get healthy for this game, and Mark Andrews is likely returning for Baltimore. That means that the Ravens could have one of the game’s best tight ends going up against a defense that can’t defend them. So, that would open things up even more for a Baltimore offense that is already one of the best units in the league.
Defensively, the Ravens have had a ton of time to get ready for Texans phenom C.J. Stroud. He’s absolutely incredible at this point in his career, but facing Baltimore in the playoffs is another beast. The Ravens should have pressure on him all game.
Bet: Ravens -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
This is the second game that I wrote up this week, so there are more thoughts on this game elsewhere. But I’m taking the points with the road team in this one. I just like Tampa Bay’s defense to keep Detroit in check after having failed the test earlier in the year. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coach, so I like his chances of adjusting and having the Bucs ready.
Offensively, Tampa Bay is a completely different team than it was earlier in the year. Baker Mayfield and this group are firing on all cylinders, and I like the Bucs to hang a pretty high number on a mediocre Lions defense. If they do, the team should be able to stay within the number.
I also just like how connected Tampa Bay is right now. This team needed a lot to go right in order to make the playoffs, and they got the job done and then beat up on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bucs have a ton of momentum.
Bet: Buccaneers +7 (-102)
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
I liked the Chiefs in their meeting with the Miami Dolphins, but this is a whole other challenge. I’m not caught up in this being Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game, but I don’t like this match-up for Kansas City. I know the Chiefs defense bordered on elite this year, but the Bills have scored at least 31 points in four of their last eight games. This team has figured things out offensively, and Josh Allen has always had success against this defense.
Kansas City’s offense also hasn’t been reliable all season. The Chiefs scored 21 or fewer points in 10 of their 17 games during the regular season. I know what Mahomes is capable of in any given week, but the weapons just haven’t been there for Kansas City. That doesn’t mean that I’m expecting Buffalo to pitch a shutout, but I don’t like the Chiefs chances of keeping up with the Bills offense. That’s what it comes down to for me.
Bet: Bills -2.5 (-120)
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