It’s time for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. It feels like we’ve been waiting forever for some meaningful professional football, but we’re stoked over here at VSiN. On the editorial side, we’ve been preparing for this for months. We worked extremely hard on our 2024 VSiN NFL Betting Guide and the VSiN NFL Betting Guide Update. If you haven’t already, make sure you check those out. Both will make you a better bettor this season. Also, you’re going to want to go to the Week 1 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games.

With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 1 NFL best bets and Week 1 NFL predictions. Last year was another profitable one for me, and I’m hoping to keep things rolling in 2024.

 

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Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants – 1:00 pm ET

It’s understandable why so many people have faith in Kevin O’Connell. What he has done with the Vikings, regardless of who he has had on the field, has been remarkable. However, it’s hard to overlook the amount of injuries Minnesota has on the offensive side of the ball. Not only is T.J. Hockenson out indefinitely, but Jordan Addison is dealing with a bad ankle. The wide receiver will either miss this game, or play at less than 100% health. This team is already playing its first game with Sam Darnold under center, and it’s hard to expect much from the 27-year-old. You can try to sell a bounce-back season all you want, but we’re all going to need to see it to believe it. That said, it feels like the Vikings are going to be relying a little too heavily on Justin Jefferson here. The Giants, who should be much better defensively this year, will have a plan in place to roll extra coverage his way.

The Giants are also going to be better than expected on offense this year. Of course, that bar is absurdly low. Daniel Jones gets hit with strays left and right on social media. But people seem to quickly forget that Brian Daboll had this team playing good football just two years ago. Now, the offensive line is a little better, and talented rookie Malik Nabers is here to bolster the wide receiver corps. I just don’t think it’d be wise to completely write off a return to form for Jones and this offense. But I especially like New York’s chances of finding some success against Minnesota. Say what you want about Daboll, but he is a highly respected offensive mind. And he has had a lot of time to think about how he wants to attack this Minnesota defense. That should result in some early success, at the very least. I’d be shocked if the Giants don’t do well with their scripted plays.

All in all, it’s just hard to understand how the Vikings are favored to win this game on the road. At least early in the season, Giants fans will show up and root for their team. This has been a good against-the-spread team at home under Daboll. But I’m not even taking the points. I’m going with New York to win outright.

Bet: Giants ML (+106)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 pm ET

I probably don’t have to convince anybody that this Steelers offense stinks. Going from Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph to Russell Wilson and Justin Fields is an upgrade in the quarterback room. But Wilson is way over the hill. The Steelers also traded Diontae Johnson to the Panthers. That was arguably their best receiver last season. So, this is going to be a team that heavily relies on the run, but Najee Harris isn’t electric enough to carry an offense. That said, I have a hard time believing Pittsburgh will go into Atlanta and put up a decent amount of points. The Falcons have a defensive-minded head coach in Raheem Morris, and the team has done a lot to address that side of the ball.

I also don’t see the Falcons hanging a big number on the Steelers. Pittsburgh was seventh in the NFL in EPA per play allowed last year, and the team should be just as good defensively this season. The Steelers have a good defensive front, so they should be capable of keeping Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in check. That’s big when considering the Atlanta passing game will be relying on Kirk Cousins. I’m a huge fan of Cousins’ overall ability, but this is his first game back from a torn Achilles. He didn’t play at all in the preseason, making it unfair to expect him to go out and light up a well-coached secondary. I do think Atlanta’s offense will eventually get going, but the Week 1 matchup is brutal.

The Under is also 6-1 in the last seven season-openers the Steelers have played, and it’s also 8-2 when the Steelers have played with at least 13 days of rest. Mike Tomlin’s teams do very well with extra time to prepare. This has been a lot of extra time.

Bet: Under 42.5 (-115)

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks – 4:05 pm ET
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4:25pm ET

I probably won’t put many moneyline parlays in this season, but I couldn’t help myself with this one. I’m starting with the Seahawks to beat the Broncos. What this boils down to is that Denver’s defense was just 25th in the league in EPA per play last year. It was a miserable unit. And while some improvements should be expected on that side of the ball, the Broncos are going to have their work cut out for them against the Seahawks. Seattle is just loaded when it comes to talent at the skill positions, and the offense is now being coached by former Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. He was the mastermind behind the Huskies’ explosive offense, and he should be able to scheme up some big plays against the Broncos here. Also, while Seattle’s defense was also a nightmare last year, it helps that the Seahawks will be going up against a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. Denver really doesn’t have much at wide receiver or running back, so a lot is going to be asked of him in his first game.

For the second game, which will kick off about 20 minutes later, I’m rocking with the Buccaneers to win outright against the Commanders. I know that Washington is a favorite amongst sharp bettors this week, but this is another game in which a rookie quarterback is going on the road. However, in this one, Jayden Daniels will be facing a defense that was pretty solid last season. He’ll also be doing it in a tough environment. I think Daniels is going to be an electric player in this league, and he’ll surely make some big plays here. But I don’t see him cruising in his first start, and I have a hard time believing that the Commanders defense will be able to slow down the Buccaneers. Dan Quinn is obviously a brilliant defensive mind, and he’ll eventually get Washington to play some solid football. But the defensive talent isn’t there yet. And while the Buccaneers did lose Dave Canales to the Panthers, Liam Coen is one letter away from having an awesome last name and apparently had this offense looking sharp in training camp. And Tampa Bay cashed in a touchdown drive in Baker Mayfield’s only taste of action with the first unit. When push comes to shove, I trust the Buccaneers offense more than I do the Commanders. Tampa Bay is being disrespected heading into this year.

PARLAY: Seahawks ML + Buccaneers ML (+118)

Additional Best Bets

I don’t always make my primetime previews best bets, but I really like three of them for this week:

Chiefs -2.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) vs. Ravens – Click here for the TNF analysis!

Eagles -2.5 (-110) vs. Packers – Click here for the Sao Paulo Game analysis!

Jets +4 (-110) vs. 49ers – Click here for the MNF analysis!

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