Expert NFL Best Bets: Picks and predictions for Week 16

December 20, 2023

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Week 16 NFL best bets and predictions

Each week, I’ll be looking through Sunday’s NFL games to try and feed my readers three winners. That continues with the three best bets I have for the Week 16 slate. Keep reading to find out what I have and make sure you also check out what my talented VSiN colleagues are playing. Those plays, along with all of our NFL content for the week, are available at our Week 16 NFL Bet Hub. You can also get all of our picks for the week on the Pro Picks page.

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Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans – 1:00 pm ET

I actually like Tennessee better with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and that seems like a possibility with Will Levis having suffered a significant high ankle sprain last week. However, I still believe the Seahawks are a better football team than the Titans, and Seattle also happens to have more motivation this week. Pete Carroll’s team is currently fighting for a wild card spot in the NFC, and a bunch of teams are in the mix for those two spots. So, the Seahawks can’t afford to lose to teams with nothing to play for.

This is also a game in which I expect Tennessee to really struggle to contain the Seattle passing game. Whether it’s Geno Smith or Drew Lock out there, the Seahawks quarterback will be going up against a Titans defense that is just 27th in the league when it comes to Defensive DVOA against the pass. That’s going to be a nightmare for Tennessee, as Seattle just has a ton of weapons to deal with. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will all be difficult for the Titans to cover. And Smith and Lock are both capable of putting it on them. On top of that, I’m not even sold on Tennessee being able to slow down Seattle’s running game. Kenneth Walker III looked great against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, and I think he’ll find some openings this week.

Defensively, the Seahawks were able to lock in and play a great game against the Eagles in Week 15. So, I think they’ll be just fine against a mediocre Titans offense. Seattle has also covered in four of its last five games, so this team is playing much better than people think recently. And under Carroll, the Seahawks are 32-20 straight-up and 28-22-2 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 25.0% to 40.0%. He can be trusted to win games he’s expected to win.

Bet: Seahawks -2.5 (-110)

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans – 1:00 pm ET

The Browns have won and covered in two straight games and I don’t see them getting tripped up against the Texans this week. It seems like CJ Stroud will miss another game for Houston this week, which would leave Case Keenum to face a Cleveland defense that is first in the league in Defensive DVOA, by far. This just isn’t the type of defense you want to face with a backup quarterback, and the Texans also happen to be dealing with significant injuries at the wide receiver position. That would make it hard for Stroud to even produce against this defense.

On offense, I don’t think Joe Flacco will play as poorly as he did last week. He was picked off three times in a win over the Chicago Bears, but he also threw for 374 yards and seemed to come up big when Cleveland needed him most. Overall, he has shown good command in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, and his ability to spin it has brought the Browns pass catchers to life. So, even against a solid Houston defense, I expect Cleveland to put up some points.

This line just feels off to me and I’d be shocked if the Browns don’t win by a field goal or more. The Texans had no business beating the Titans last week.

Bet: Browns -2.5 (-114)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4:05 pm ET

I have a pretty poor track record when it comes to betting the Buccaneers, whether it’s betting on them or against them. But I do like Tampa Bay to emerge with a win against Jacksonville, so I’m trying not to let the past get in my way. This Buccaneers team has tailed off a little defensively, but it’s still a group that is solid against both the run and the pass. That should be good enough to stifle a Jaguars offense that scored just seven points in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. Jacksonville is also dealing with Trevor Lawrence being banged up right now, and it’s going to be hard for the Jaguars to win without him. It’ll also be difficult for them to win if he plays after having not prepared for the Bucs defense.

Tampa Bay has just been playing some good football for weeks now, with the team on a three-game winning streak entering this one. The Bucs were especially impressive in a 34-20 road win over the Green Bay Packers last week, and they had both the passing and running games going there. This team has actually scored 63 points over the last two weeks, and I think Baker Mayfield and Rachaad White can both play well against this Jacksonville defense.

All in all, I just can’t get over the way the Jaguars have played recently. And it’s not like winning in Tampa Bay is easy. This feels like one that will go the way of the Bucs, who are knocking on the door of a playoff spot in the NFC.

Bet: Bucs PK (-110)

Best Bets Record: 34-25-1 (+6.90 units)