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2024 NFL Best Bets Record: 8-9 (-1.11 units)

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1:00 pm ET

I’m a little surprised to see that the Buccaneers are available at plus-money odds in this game. Tampa Bay is obviously coming off a miserable performance against Denver last week, but those types of games happen all the time in the NFL. The Buccaneers overlooked their opponent and paid the price for it. Tampa Bay will now look to get back on track in a home game against an up-and-down Philadelphia team, and I like the Buccaneers to handle their business against the Eagles.

When these teams met at Raymond James Stadium in the playoffs last year, Tampa Bay came away with a lopsided 32-9 victory. You never want to put too much stock in one game — especially considering the Eagles beat the Bucs earlier in the year — but it was a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. Baker Mayfield threw for 337 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in that game, and he was doing whatever he wanted with the Philadelphia defense. Meanwhile, Todd Bowles’ Tampa Bay defense went 11 for 11 in stopping Philadelphia on third and fourth down.

The Eagles did go out and make changes at both coordinator spots, so this isn’t the same squad as it was last year. The Eagles also have Saquon Barkley in the backfield now. He has been incredible since putting on the green jersey. But it’s not like Philadelphia’s first couple of weeks are telling a great story about this team. The Eagles barely escaped with a win over the Packers in Week 1, and their defense was a mess in that game. They then collapsed in a 22-21 loss to the Falcons in Week 2. Philadelphia was also a New Orleans defensive mistake away from being 1-2, but the team was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat late.

The Eagles just haven’t been very impressive in any way, and they’ll be without A.J. Brown here. They could also be without DeVonta Smith, who suffered a concussion last week. That will make Bowles’ job a little easier, as he will have his defense key in on Barkley and then trust in his secondary to go to work against a depleted receiving corps. And offensively, Tampa Bay should be able to run against a soft Philadelphia defensive line, which will then open up the play action game for offensive coordinator Liam Coen.

Overall, I’m just not sure Philadelphia is much better than Tampa Bay right now, and the Buccaneers have a trend working in their favor. Since 2015, teams with winning records that are coming off home upset losses of 14 or more points are 25-6 against the moneyline. They have also won those games by an average of 10.0 points per game.

Bet: Buccaneers ML (+110)

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – 1:00 pm ET

This is another game in which I’m struggling to understand the odds. Whether Jordan Love is out there or not, I trust Brian Flores’ defense to be ready to go here. This is the second-best scoring defense in the NFL right now. The Vikings are also first in Defensive DVOA and Top 10 in EPA per play allowed against both the run and the pass. So, Minnesota should be able to handle Love, who will likely be playing with a bulky brace and be somewhat limited when it comes to mobility. And if it’s Malik Willis that starts, the Vikings should really eat defensively. Willis has done a good job of doing what’s needed from him, but he’s probably not capable of making the throws required to beat an elite defense like this.

Green Bay does have a good defense. The Packers are 12th in Defensive DVOA and ninth in EPA per play allowed. But the Vikings should have a better chance of finding offensive success than the Packers. Sam Darnold is currently seventh in the NFL in PFF’s quarterback rankings and has been executing Kevin O’Connell’s offense at a high level. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to do it again.

Minnesota is also 10-7 straight-up in road games under O’Connell, so I don’t see Lambeau Field being a huge factor here.

Bet: Vikings ML (+126)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 pm ET

The Colts are suddenly up to 11th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed, but I still don’t believe in this Indianapolis rushing defense. The Colts were just fortunate to get a crack at a Bears team that can’t block last week, and that skewed the numbers quite a bit. Indianapolis was still dominated on the ground by both Houston and Green Bay, so I like Pittsburgh’s chances of finding success in the running game. That will then allow Justin Fields to do what he has done all season, which is hit singles and slowly move the ball down the field. The Steelers aren’t asking for much from the talented dual-threat quarterback, and he has played well enough to completely change Pittsburgh’s season-long outlook.

However, the real reason to love Pittsburgh in this game is the defense. The Steelers are first in the league in EPA per play allowed this season, and they also sit atop the rankings in Rush EPA per play allowed. Pittsburgh should be able to slow down Jonathan Taylor in this one, and that will make it very hard on Indianapolis to score. Anthony Richardson has one of the biggest arms in football, and he might hit a deep shot or two here. However, I’m not sure he’s accurate enough to pick apart an elite defense, and there should be a couple of turnovers from the Colts offense in this game.

This is also the type of game that Mike Tomlin tends to win. Under his leadership, Pittsburgh is 72-53 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is a miserable 1-6 SU as a home underdog under Shane Steichen.

Bet: Steelers -1.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)

Additional Best Bets

Giants +4.5 (-105 – 1.5 units) & Giants ML (+195 – 0.5 units) – Click here for my Sunday Night Football analysis!

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