It’s time for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 5 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 5 NFL best bets and Week 5 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns – 9:30 am ET (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London)
I’m always a fan of having a little action in the international games, and I’m rolling with a same-game parlay of Vikings +3.5 and Under 42.5 in London. I have pretty strong leans on Minnesota and the Under, but I don’t feel comfortable taking them. This gets me in with much better numbers.
Minnesota didn’t look great against Pittsburgh in Dublin last week, but staying overseas for the week should be a huge advantage. Also, I’m a believer in Brian Flores’ ability to coach a defense. He should be able to get his group — which is first in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.142) — to bounce back. After all, the Vikings will be going to work against a rookie quarterback, as Dillon Gabriel is set to start over Joe Flacco this week. Gabriel is a pretty good decision maker in the pocket, but Flores is going to dial up pressure to make the youngster uncomfortable. And I like the Minnesota secondary to confuse him — and possibly even pick him off.
Of course, Carson Wentz and the offense will need to figure things out after a rough go against the Steelers, but they shouldn’t need to do too much. This game has a very low total, so the winner won’t need to score many points. A good drive or two could go a long way, and Kevin O’Connell should be able to script some of those early on.
As far as the total goes, these are two very good defenses, and both of the offenses are shaky. And while I leaned Under to begin with, I ultimately decided to give myself a little extra cushion — which could come in handy if there’s a defensive touchdown at some point.
PARLAY: Vikings +3.5 & Under 42.5 (-133)
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints – 1:00 pm ET
The Saints might be winless, but they have been pretty competitive this season. New Orleans pushed Arizona, San Francisco, and Buffalo, and the team should now be fired up to be facing a team that doesn’t have a significant edge in talent.
One thing I like about the Saints here is that they’re currently 15th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.108). They have been doing a decent job of clogging gaps, and they should be able to keep Cam Skattebo and the Giants running game in check. Well, if they do that, that also means keeping New York’s offense in check.
Jaxson Dart gave New York some life last week, but he wasn’t all that impressive as a passer. And he’ll now be going to work without Malik Nabers, who tore his ACL in the win over Los Angeles. This just feels like a rough spot for Dart. He’s low on experience and weapons, and he’s playing his first road game.
If you’re worried about New Orleans putting up enough points to win, that’s fair. However, the Giants are last in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.167). The Saints should be able to do some decent work on the ground on first and second downs, setting up good situations for Spencer Rattler. Kendre Miller actually gave New Orleans a nice boost with his legs last week. Also, Rattler has had some decent moments this year.
New York is also 7-19 straight-up as a road underdog under Brian Daboll. This isn’t a Giants team that can be counted on to win, even in a matchup like this.
Bet: Saints ML (-122 – 1.5 units)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets – 1:00 pm ET
Justin Fields threw for 226 yards against the Dolphins last week, and it almost feels like he did it by accident. New York didn’t seem to have any interest in throwing the ball against Miami, but the team went down two scores and pretty much had to. Well, once Fields was forced to start firing, he actually looked quite good. He went 20 for 27 in the game, and he threw some good balls to Garrett Wilson. One of them went for a touchdown, and they had another called off on a weak offensive pass interference penalty.
Given what we saw in the second half of Week 4, it just wouldn’t be surprising if offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand unleashes Fields a bit. He had a bad fumble against the Dolphins last week, but he hasn’t been tossing interceptions. And his completion percentage is currently up at 65.0%.
Fields also has the perfect matchup this week. The Cowboys are last in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.442), and we have seen opposing quarterbacks do whatever they want against this secondary. We even saw Russell Wilson throw for 450 yards before losing his job to Dart two weeks later.
No matter what you think of Fields as a passer, this is a matchup he can take advantage of. So, I’m firing him up to go for Over 186.5 passing yards. I’m also taking a small shot on him throwing for 2+ touchdowns, as Wilson should be open regularly here. Don’t sleep on the possibility of the Cowboys going up big, forcing Fields to throw a ton against that lousy secondary.
Bet: Fields Over 186.5 Passing Yards (-114 – 1.5 units) & Fields Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+145 – 0.5 units)
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers – 1:00 pm ET
Not only am I going Over on Fields’ passing yards and touchdowns but I’m also doing the same with Bryce Young. The Panthers quarterback is set to face the same Dolphins defense that Fields did, and I don’t see any reason he can’t turn in a big performance. While Dallas is last in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed, Miami is 31st at 0.387. This is a weak and depleted Dolphins secondary, and it’s also a defense that plays a lot of man coverage. Well, the Panthers have the receivers to take advantage of that coverage, with Tet McMillan being the headliner. And Young won’t hesitate to throw the ball up and give his guys chances to come down with it.
Dave Canales could also opt to be a little more aggressive with the passing game in this one, as his running backs are a little banged up. And if Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins get going themselves — which they did against the Jets — Young will have to try and keep up in a duel.
Also, for as bad as Carolina has been this season, the team is 1-0 at home and Young played well in that beatdown over Atlanta. Getting back in front of his home crowd could bring out the best in him.
Bet: Young Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-110 – 1.5 units) & Young Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+145 – 0.5 units)
Additional Week 5 Best Bets
Kyren Williams Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – CLICK HERE for my 49ers vs. Rams Thursday Night Football betting preview!
PARLAY: Panthers Alt +8.5 vs. Dolphins & Seahawks ML vs. Buccaneers (-109 – 1.5 units)
6PT TEASER: Jets vs. Cowboys Over 41.5 & Broncos +10.5 vs. Eagles (-118 – 1.5 units)
Patriots +8.5 (-112 – 1.5 units) vs. Bills & Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+260 – 0.5 units) vs. Bills – CLICK HERE for my Patriots vs. Bills Sunday Night Football betting preview!
Jaguars +3.5 (-110) & Jaguars ML (+170 – 0.5 units) vs. Chiefs – CLICK HERE for my Jaguars vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football betting preview!
I’ll likely add some more later in the week.
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2025 Record: 25-26 (-2.40 units)
