NFC South
You have to go back to 2020 to find the last season in which the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell short of winning the division. You have to go back to 2016 to find the last time that either the Atlanta Falcons or Carolina Panthers took down the NFC South title, as the New Orleans Saints ripped off four in a row from 2017-20. Ironically, the Falcons (2016) and Panthers (2015) both went to the Super Bowl the last time they won the division. Neither the Bucs nor Saints have made it past the Divisional Round.
The Buccaneers enter the season as the favorite in search of a five-peat, but they feel vulnerable this season…just like they did last season. Tampa Bay won the division at 13-4 back in 2021, but they’ve won the division at 8-9, 9-8, and 10-7 over the last three seasons. In other words, it shouldn’t take much for another NFC South team to not only close the gap, but jump over it and put the Bucs in the rearview mirror.
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All of these teams are flawed. The Bucs were third in yards per play on offense, but 19th on defense. The Falcons were a top-10 offense in yards per play as well, but changed quarterbacks during the season. They also had the fifth-highest percentage of drives against ending in points. The Panthers played musical chairs at QB before Bryce Young seemed to settle in late in the season, but opponents scored on 51.4% of their possessions. The next worst team was Jacksonville at 45.6%. The Saints were bad on offense, bad on defense, and have to pick from the three-headed monster of rookie Tyler Shough, second-year player Spencer Rattler, or third-year player Jake Haener.
In theory, divisions like this should carry a fair amount of betting value. Even though the Bucs are going to win most often, and are priced that way in the markets, the Falcons, who beat Tampa Bay in both head-to-head meetings, and even the Panthers, who tied for last with the Saints at 5-12, don’t really need to improve all that much to make this division more competitive.
And many believe that they have done that and Tampa Bay’s reign of NFC South terror is in jeopardy.
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Atlanta Falcons
With the awkwardness of the 2024 season in the past, the Falcons can focus on the present and the future. Signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal about a month and a half before drafting Michael Penix Jr. in the first round created a very uncomfortable situation for all involved.
The Falcons are still saddled with Cousins, but it is undeniably Penix’s team to start the season. With the wily vet as a safety net, maybe everything falls into place. There were some major salary cap constraints over the spring and summer to work around, so the Falcons don’t have a lot of new faces, but the ones they do have are probably walking around with a different expression going into 2025.
Offense
You can tell that Zac Robinson feels very comfortable with his offense. The Falcons spent both first-round picks on defenders and their meager free agent funds on that side of the ball as well. So this group, which finished eighth in yards per play and 13th in EPA/play, looks very similar. The one obvious difference is Penix, as Cousins started 14 games. Cousins was 16th in EPA + CPOE (Comp% Over Expected) Composite among 30 QBs with at least 320 plays, so he was decidedly average, even with the 16 interceptions.
The data is messy given how some star QBs didn’t play and some did, with other players resting, but Penix was 19th in EPA+CPOE Composite among 33 QB with at least 50 plays in Weeks 16-18. He missed some throws to be sure and needs more reps with the No. 1s, but there were flashes. With a dynamic RB in Bijan Robinson, who was 44 yards short of 1,500, and WRs in Drake London and Darnell Mooney that combined for nearly 2,300 yards, Penix has the pieces to be successful.
Defense
Morris is a defensive coordinator by trade and the unit’s regression had to keep him up at night. The Falcons were a top-10 defense by YPP in 2023, but simply didn’t force enough takeaways with only 16. This past season’s defense was 19th in YPP and only had 18 takeaways. So, the Falcons drafted LB Jalon Walker, pass rusher James Pearce Jr., and two safeties in Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman Jr. with their top-four picks. The Falcons also brought in Jordan Fuller and Leonard Floyd.
This is a team that didn’t blitz a lot and didn’t generate much pressure, leading to a league-worst 69.9% completion rate against. While they only gave up 9.9 yards per catch, they didn’t generate enough negative plays, allowing opponents to have a high Success Rate and get ahead of schedule. As a result, the Falcons were 31st in third-down defense. Those are the areas of focus based on the offseason transactions.
Outlook
The NFC South drew the AFC East and NFC West and the Falcons added the Vikings, Colts, and Commanders thanks to their second-place finish. The schedule is not easy and the bye comes in Week 5, well before a trip to Berlin in Week 9. But, the division is wide-open and Year 2 of this coaching staff may elevate a talented roster.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Carolina Panthers
Dating back to the 2002 division realignment, the only years in which a team hasn’t gone worst to first have been 2014, 2019, and 2024. Semantics might come into play with the Panthers, who you could argue tied for last place and technically finished in third because of tiebreakers. Nevertheless, the overarching point here is that teams can and often do turn it around from one year to the next.
In a division that does feel ripe for the taking, the question is whether or not Bryce Young can be consistently good and if the league’s worst scoring defense can improve enough for the team to be in contention. After the bye week, the signs were there, as the Panthers nearly beat the Chiefs and probably should have beaten the Buccaneers and Eagles. But “should” and “did” are two very different things in the NFL.
Offense
There were three stages of offense for the Panthers last season. There was the Bryce Young era, the Andy Dalton era, and then Bryce Young Part Deux. Because I’m such a naturally optimistic guy, I’ll look at the A.D. weeks (After Dalton). Young took back over as the starter in Week 8. In those 10 games, the Panthers were 4-6 and Young had a 15/6 TD/INT ratio with a 61.8% completion rate and 223 rushing yards on 37 carries. He only had 6.69 adjusted net yards per attempt, but looked to have a better grasp of the Dave Canales offense.
For 3WR sets now, Young has 2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette, productive vet Adam Thielen, and 2025 first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan. So his primary targets are 6’3”, 6’2”, and 6’5”. Catch radius should matter a lot with a somewhat inaccurate, short-statured QB. The backfield is also bolstered with Chuba Hubbard and a homecoming of sorts for South Carolina product Rico Dowdle, who ran for over 1,000 yards and still was content to sign into a timeshare at best. With an OL that was top-10 in yards per carry and 12th in Sack%, you can see why this offense is highly-regarded in the minds of some.
Defense
The focus will always be on a QB taken No. 1 overall, but this defense was extremely poor last season. Opponents converted over 50% of their third-down attempts and this was a bottom-five red zone unit. Carolina’s 64 QB hits were the lowest in the league and they were last in Pressure%. They got gashed to the tune of 5.2 yards per carry. It’s a make-or-break year for third-year DC Ejiro Evero in all likelihood.
Carolina added 13 sacks in free agency from Patrick Jones II and Tershawn Wharton, plus a huge-bodied run-stopper in Bobby Brown III. Tre’von Moehring had 97 tackles and 10 pass breakups. This unit needs more than a few free agents, but there really is nowhere to go but up.
Outlook
The season hinges on Young being better than he was and significantly, if the Panthers want to contend for a playoff spot. The schedule isn’t too bad, though a Week 14 bye is concerning if Young gets off to a slow start. I think this team will look better on the stat sheet, but not necessarily in the standings. Both sides of the ball have a long way to go.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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New Orleans Saints
The safety blanket of a franchise quarterback saves a lot of jobs and wins a lot of games. But, the smartest organizations find a way to plan for the inevitable end. Drew Brees gave the Saints 15 outstanding years and played until his age-41 season. Since Brees retired at the end of 2020, the Saints have gotten starts from Ian Book, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Jake Haener, and Spencer Rattler. Carr posted a 14-13 record as the starter with a respectable 40/13 TD/INT ratio over 2023-24. Others were 0-7.
Five years after Brees, the Saints are still looking for a consistent QB and head into this season with rookie second-rounder Tyler Shough, second-year fifth-round pick Rattler, and third-year fourth-rounder Haener. Have I mentioned yet that the Saints are the second favorite for the fewest wins this season?
Offense
Collectively, Saints QBs not named Carr didn’t win a game and also had more interceptions (6) than touchdown passes (5) last season. First-time head coach Kellen Moore has been brought in to inject some life into this offense, but that task seems rather difficult with the QB options. Ironically, Alvin Kamara had more yards per carry last season than he’s had in the last three seasons and came just seven yards shy of 1,500 from scrimmage.
The Saints let Lucas Patrick walk and signed Dillon Radunz to a one-year deal, so all five linemen are under 30 and both tackles, Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning, started all 17 games last year. Offensive lines are always important, but even more so with inexperienced quarterbacks. New Orleans had a higher Success Rate with the run (41.4%) than with the pass (40.1%), so the OL will have to open holes for Kamara for this offense to have hope.
Defense
The player personnel needs to improve, but this coaching staff has a lot of potential upside, including DC Brandon Staley. Staley was not successful as a head coach, but the 42-year-old rapid riser in the coaching world gets his second crack at the DC role. New Orleans actually had a top-10 defense by Dropback Success Rate and were second in the league in pass breakups. They also struggled to generate pressure, illustrating just how well the corners played.
Kool-Aid McKinstry will have to take on a bigger role with Paulson Adebo, who was second in pass breakups, in New York. Alontae Taylor (16 PBU) is back, though he somehow failed to secure an interception. If Staley can get more from Chase Young and Bryan Bresee develops, this might be an underrated defense entering the season.
Outlook
“If”. “Might”. Those are the words you get when looking at a team in what I’ll generously call a “transitional” year. The season does not start favorably with three NFC West opponents and a trip to Buffalo. More wins are available in the back portion of the schedule, depending on how fast the team comes together and if a QB, likely Shough, emerges. I’d keep an eye on an in-season Over with the Panthers, Jets, and Titans in December.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Some things in sports make a lot of sense. Some things in sports make no sense. The last time the Buccaneers failed to win the NFC South was when they won the Super Bowl during the 2020 season. Even in a post-Tom Brady world, the Bucs have run their NFC South reign of terror out to four straight division titles after not having won one since 2007. Baker Mayfield has been at the helm for the last two and his team is favored to make it five in a row.
Mayfield will be working with his eighth different offensive coordinator in eight seasons, as Josh Grizzard is his new OC. It will be his third in three seasons with the Bucs. And yet, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan back, plus Emeka Egbuka and a strong offensive line, he’s set up for success again.
Offense
The Bucs may have only gone 10-7 during the regular season and had an early exit in the playoffs, but this was a tremendous offense last year. Tampa Bay was fourth in points, third in yards, and wound up being sixth in point differential and fifth in yardage differential. The 23 turnovers, including 16 interceptions, didn’t help, but this was the league’s top third-down offense and a top-five unit in the red zone.
As all eight OCs have found out, Baker will throw his picks, but he’ll produce as well. He threw for 4,500 yards last season as the Bucs trailed only the Bengals and Lions in net passing yards. Grizzard is only 35 years old and had a full-time NFL job by the age of 27. He was Tampa Bay’s pass game coordinator last season, so this should be another potent and prolific passing attack, coupled with an 1,100-yard back in Bucky Irving.
Defense
Todd Bowles and the staff are putting trust in the youngsters this season. Calijah Kancey led the team in sacks with 7.5 and he’ll be one of the premier pass rushers for the team. He only played 12 games, so he’s a guy who has a chance to have more of an impact. The most notable loss is Jordan Whitehead, but another recent draft pick in Tykee Smith, who was 15th in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, will pick up some of that slack.
The other pass rusher to keep a close eye on is Haason Reddick, who should be plenty fresh after not really being a factor for the Jets last season. The Bucs were only 17th in EPA/play on defense and were actually rather bad against the pass. Turnovers are a huge factor in EPA metrics and the Bucs had just seven interceptions and need to improve in that department to better complement a top-10 run defense.
Outlook
Expectations are high, but deservedly so. The Bucs only leave Florida once over the final six weeks of the season, a trade-off to playing two of their first-place games (Texans, Lions) on the road. The offense looks spectacular again and the defense has room for improvement with more of a pass rush and some more athleticism in the secondary.
Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
