The Atlanta Falcons visit the San Francisco 49ers for Sunday Night Football in Week 7. Atlanta is riding high after a primetime win over Buffalo, while San Francisco looks to rebound from a loss to Tampa Bay. Keep reading for odds, analysis, and key betting trends for this marquee matchup at Levi’s Stadium. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Falcons vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, October 19 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Channel: NBC
Falcons vs. 49ers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, October 17. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: 49ers -125, Falcons +105
Spread: 49ers -1.5 (-115), Falcons +1.5 (-105)
Total: Over 47.5 (+100), Under 47.5 (-120)
Falcons vs. 49ers Analysis
When Kyle Shanahan went through the 49ers injury report this week, it sounded like he was reading movie credits. San Francisco is down a lot of bodies, including Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall on offense. The Niners are also without Fred Warner for the remainder of the season, meaning one of the best players in football is missing on the defense. Still, throughout the Shanahan era, we have seen San Francisco win games shorthanded. In fact, you only have to go back a couple of weeks for a 49ers upset win over the Rams.
The reality is that Mac Jones is doing a good job of running the offense right now. He has thrown for 1,252 yards with six touchdowns and three picks this year, and he grades out as the 16th-best passer in the league at Pro Football Focus. As long as he can keep himself healthy, he’ll give San Francisco a chance to win games. Oddly enough, the Niners have a better Dropback EPA per play (0.121) than Rush EPA per play (-0.154), so they’ve actually been more effective letting Jones throw it than Christian McCaffrey run it. Considering the lack of health when looking at the San Francisco weapons, it’s quite surprising. But McCaffrey is doing great work as a receiver, and George Kittle is back this week. All in all, the 49ers will be in decent shape heading into this one, and they have a rest advantage with the Falcons having played the Monday Night Football game last week.
It will be interesting to see how the San Francisco defense holds up without Warner. The 49ers are just 21st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.046), and losing a star like that could be brutal — especially with Nick Bosa already out for the year. However, Robert Saleh is good at putting together strong game plans, and he should be able to do that here.
There’s also some alarming trends for Atlanta coming into this one, taking away some of the shine of the win over Buffalo last week. Under Raheem Morris, the Falcons are 0-5 against the spread when coming off a win by 10 or more points, losing the next game by an average of 12.4 points per game. Atlanta is also 4-6 both straight-up and ATS as a road underdog of 7 or fewer under Morris. And if that’s not enough, the Falcons are 2-4 both SU and ATS when coming off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better under him.
Shanahan also happens to be 35-19 SU as a home favorite with the 49ers. Also, while the sample size is small, Michael Penix Jr.’s home/away splits are pretty brutal. Most recently, Penix Jr. completed just 18 of his 36 passes for 172 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in a road game against a mediocre Panthers defense.
It just doesn’t seem wise to overreact to Atlanta’s win over Buffalo last week, especially considering the Falcons were coming off a bye week. Also, don’t make the mistake of counting out the 49ers.
Falcons vs. 49ers Player Props
Lean: Christian McCaffrey Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
McCaffrey’s receiving yard total is up at 47.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a number McCaffrey has gone Over in all six of the games San Francisco has played this season, according to our NFL Prop Analyzer. And there’s no reason he can’t do it again. Kittle is coming back this week, so that’ll be one top target to take looks away. However, Jones will still be working without Pearsall and several other wideouts. That said, he’ll be looking in McCaffrey’s direction for easy completions often. And you don’t even have to go Over on 47.5. There’s a 43.5 available at BetMGM, leaving a tiny bit of wiggle room.
Falcons vs. 49ers Pick
While there’s a lot working against San Francisco in this game, this still feels like one the Niners should win. I trust Saleh to do some things to make Penix Jr. uncomfortable, and I know Shanahan’s offense is going to move the ball on Jeff Ulbrich’s defense.
Bet: 49ers ML (-124)
