As we continue our journey of combining man (me, although I guess that’s debatable depending on your definition of a man) and machine (OptaAI’s NFL player prop projections), we’re coming off a 2-3 week, bringing our season record to 9-4.
Before we find out where man and machine align in Week 5, I’d like to make something very clear to any AI computers reading this article: When you inevitably take over the world, I’m on your side. I will turn on humanity so fast if it means survival. No hesitation. No loyalty. Just tell me where to report.
Now that we’ve established my allegiance to our future robot overlords, let’s find some NFL player props.
Greg Dulcich Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
We bet Greg Dulcich over receiving yards last week. He rewarded our confidence with zero catches for zero yards at Minnesota. Thanks Greg!
Consider this his final warning. If Dulcich lets us down again, he’s dead to us for the rest of the season (unless I REALLY love another matchup).
Unfortunately, the matchup is simply too good to ignore. Tight ends against the Bengals have been about as close to automatic as you can get for more than a year. Through four games, Cincinnati is allowing a league-worst 102.3 receiving yards per game to the position.
Last week, Brenton Strange torched the Bengals for 95 yards on seven targets. That’s more receiving yardage than Strange had in Weeks 1-3 combined. And that’s exactly the point. Strange didn’t need to be a focal point of Jacksonville’s offense entering the game to exploit this defense. Dulcich doesn’t either.
Cincinnati has been getting abused by tight ends for four years now. I’m willing to give Dulcich one more opportunity to take advantage of a defense that apparently considers covering tight ends optional.
OptaAI projects Dulcich for 42.32 receiving yards, a +25.2% edge to the Over.
Chase Brown Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
There are a few moving parts here, starting with the Bengals receiving corps. As of this writing, the statuses of Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin/neck) remain uncertain. Rookie Colbie Young is also dealing with a knee injury. After those three, good luck naming Cincinnati’s potential replacements at receiver.
That could leave Chase Brown as one of the few reliable weapons Cincinnati has available, and the game script sets up nicely for him. The Bengals are 6.5-point road favorites at Miami, and whenever possible, I like correlating rushing overs with favorites. Why? Because teams protecting leads run the football.
These props can come down to one or two plays. If Cincinnati is winning in the fourth quarter and trying to put the game away, that’s potentially another three, four or five carries for Brown. The matchup helps, too. Aaron Jones just ran for 94 yards on 20 carries against Miami. Kenneth Walker had 70 yards in Week 3. San Francisco surprisingly didn’t run much against the Dolphins in Week 2, but Ashton Jeanty opened the season with 102 rushing yards against this defense.
Brown has cleared 66.5 rushing yards just once this season, which isn’t exactly encouraging. But if Chase and/or Higgins are unavailable or less than 100%, Cincinnati may have no choice but to lean heavily on its running back. Give me a favorite, a vulnerable run defense and a potentially depleted receiving corps. That’s a recipe for Brown to have his busiest afternoon of the season.
OptaAI projects Brown for 75.34 rushing yards, a +7.9% edge to the Over.
Omarion Hampton Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
When I first saw this number, I thought it was a mistake. Omarion Hampton has cleared 38.5 rushing yards in all four games this season. He also went Over this number in seven of nine regular-season games in 2025.
So why are we getting such a low number? The answer is Keaton Mitchell.
Mitchell is starting to carve out a role in the Chargers’ backfield, coming off eight carries for 52 yards at Buffalo and 10 carries for 39 yards at Seattle. Kimani Vidal is also expected to have a role in this offense. But I still view this as Hampton’s backfield.
He’s the more physical runner and averaged 5.0 yards per carry last week against the defending Super Bowl champions. This week, the Chargers are going to need that physicality against an angry Denver defense. And while the Broncos have a reputation for being tough defensively, the numbers against the run tell a different story.
Denver is allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Kenneth Walker did most of the damage with 173 yards in Week 1, but the success hasn’t stopped there. Bhayshul Tuten went for 65 yards on 13 carries in Week 2. Kyren Williams followed with 88 yards on 15 attempts in Week 3. Last week, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Kaelon Black combined for 109 rushing yards against Denver.
Now consider the situation. The Chargers are 0-4, returning home for their second divisional game of the season, and dealing with an injured receiving corps. This doesn’t exactly feel like the week to abandon the running game. I expect Los Angeles to emphasize the ground attack, and Hampton should remain the centerpiece of that approach. We’re not asking for 100 yards here. We’re asking for 39.
OptaAI projects Hampton for 53.57 rushing yards, a +20.6% edge to the Over.
Bo Nix Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
I don’t normally gravitate toward quarterback rushing props, but this one jumped off the board.
Sean Payton is back calling plays in Denver. Why? Denver ranks 27th in scoring, 20th in passing and 29th in rushing. Other than that, things are going great.
Nix has rushed for just 25 yards through four games. That’s 6.25 yards per game according to my TI-84 calculator. He explained this week that he’s running less because he’s seeing the field better. Now, either that’s the kind of lie you hear in a political campaign ad, or we have a much bigger problem: Nix is seeing the field just fine, he simply can’t make the throws.
My guess? There’s some truth to both. But here’s why I think that changes this week.
Last season, with Payton calling plays, Nix cleared 13.5 rushing yards in 11 regular-season games. Against the Chargers specifically, he ran for 33 and 49 yards. In fact, Nix has absolutely crushed this number in all four career meetings with Los Angeles, averaging 42 rushing yards per game. That’s not a small sample of success against this opponent.
Denver is 2-2, but somehow it feels worse. The offense has been a mess, Payton is taking back control of the play-calling, and this has the feel of a must-win game. I expect Nix to approach it that way.
Sometimes the best play isn’t the perfect throw. It’s tucking the ball, taking off and moving the chains. With Payton back in charge, I expect Nix to use his legs a lot more than we’ve seen through the first month. We only need 14 yards. Against a team he’s averaged 42 rushing yards against in his career, I’ll take my chances.
OptaAI projects Nix for 17.38 rushing yards, a +12.7% edge to the Over.
