We’re back with another edition of Man + Machine = Winning Prop Bets in the NFL. At least, that’s the objective.
As we move deeper into Week 9, we’re working with a much larger sample of data to help inform our handicapping. But there’s another element worth considering: the teams have access to that same information. As the season progresses, defensive adjustments become inevitable. Teams identify their biggest weaknesses, opponents recognize those vulnerabilities, and what worked a few weeks ago might not be as effective today.
With that in mind, let’s look at five player props where the numbers, matchups and game scripts could create some opportunities.
Chase Brown Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
Cincinnati has trailed its last two opponents 13-0 early, forcing the Bengals to throw their way back into consecutive wins. Even in those situations, Brown managed 55 rushing yards, clearing this number last week. Now he gets an Atlanta defense that just surrendered more than 300 rushing yards to Tampa Bay in the rain.
I went through the international games this season and noticed a trend: teams have been leaning heavily on their running backs. My theory is that a few travel-related variables are at play, but I’m still not convinced NFL teams fully trust the fields across the pond to operate their offenses as usual.
In Australia to open the season, San Francisco ran Christian McCaffrey for 68 yards, while Kaelon Black debuted with 65 on the ground. In Brazil, Derrick Henry ran for 89 yards and Justice Hill added 33. When Indianapolis dominated Washington in London, Jonathan Taylor led the way with 95 yards. Jacksonville rode Bhayshul Tuten for 72 yards in its win over Philadelphia. Houston’s ground game featured Woody Marks with 56 yards and Jawhar Jordan adding 43. Then, in Paris a few weeks ago, Jaylen Warren popped for 101 yards, with Rico Dowdle adding another 43.
Thinking Zac Taylor is smart enough to follow this blueprint might be a stretch. But the number is extremely low.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Brown for 59.71 rushing yards. That’s a 12.4% edge to the Over.
Sione Vaki Over 20.5 Rushing Yards
I’m in the minority thinking Detroit rolls in Miami this week. After backing the Dolphins the last two weeks, I’m walking away from them like a hot blackjack table, hoping to avoid the inevitable downturn.
If I’m right, Vaki should get a few extra carries as Detroit takes care of business and gives Jahmyr Gibbs some rest ahead of next week’s matchup with New England in Germany.
Vaki is coming off a season-high 11 carries and 65 rushing yards against Minnesota last week. If he gets even half that workload, he could flirt with clearing 20.5 against a Miami defense allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. New England’s No. 2 back, Corey Kiner, offered a similar blueprint last week, putting up 38 yards on seven carries against this defense.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Vaki for 31.06 rushing yards. That’s a 22.2% edge to the Over.
Sam LaPorta Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
I’m not the biggest fan of backing receiving props with teams laying a touchdown on the road, but opposing tight ends have been feasting against Miami this season. The Dolphins allow the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Last week, Hunter Henry was off to a good start against them before leaving with an injury, finishing with just 30 yards. The week before, Jets tight end Mason Taylor put up 62.
I could see Detroit using LaPorta to jump out to an early lead by exploiting that matchup. He hasn’t been heavily involved in the offense lately, with just four catches for 51 yards over the last two weeks. But OptaAI likes him this week, projecting 53.22 receiving yards. That’s a 9% edge to the Over.
Aaron Jones Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
Buffalo enters Monday Night Football allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs at 44.4.
Last week, Justice Hill hit them for 20 yards. Two weeks ago, Ashton Jeanty had 36 against Buffalo. The Rams’ Blake Corum and Kyren Williams combined for 80, while Rhamondre Stevenson chipped in 27 for New England.
Buffalo ranks as the league’s 10th-best run defense, so I expect Minnesota to have a tough time establishing the ground game. As a home underdog, the Vikings could find themselves trailing late and throwing to catch up. In that scenario, the best way to get Jones involved may be through the passing game.
OptaAI projects Jones for 13.39 receiving yards, nearly double his posted number. That’s a 26.7% edge to the Over.
Darren Waller Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
You can make a case for just about any of Carolina’s tight ends this week against Denver. The Broncos enter this matchup allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
I expect Vance Joseph’s defense to put heavy pressure on Bryce Young, hoping to force mistakes. That could make shorter routes over the middle Carolina’s best way to attack this defense.
Last week, Travis Kelce went for 67 yards against Denver. The week before, Trey McBride exploded for 111. AJ Barner managed just 16, but Charlie Kolar had 37 before that, following George Kittle and Tyler Higbee, who tagged the Broncos for 70 and 62 yards, respectively.
OptaAI likes Waller to finish with 30.82 receiving yards, a 26% edge to the Over.
