NFL Player Props
Injuries keep mounting and that keeps creating opportunities for other guys to shine. We can take advantage of that in the NFL player props market, as some guys will be underpriced because they haven’t factored into the gameplan too much yet, while other guys who are hobbled could end up with numbers that they cannot meet. It is important to scan through all the options that are available and look for the ones that appear to have the most equity.
VSiN Pro Subscribers have access to our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections — I’ve looked through those and also looked over what the sportsbooks have to offer to find some of my favorite props for Week 9.
I’ve got my First Touchdown Scorer picks here.
As always, shop around for these Week 8 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 10:20 p.m. PT on Friday, November 6 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 9 NFL Player Prop Bets:
Greg Dulcich (MIA) Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
No team in the NFL has allowed more receiving yards to tight ends than the Lions. They’ve also allowed a league-high 11 touchdowns to that position group, so Dulcich can be looked at in a lot of different ways.
For me, I’m looking at his receiving yards (among others), as he has been a huge factor post-bye week. Dulcich has nine catches on 11 targets for 129 yards, going Over this total in both games. The game state is suggesting that the Dolphins will have to throw the ball in the second half and that should help Dulcich’s case as well.
By the way, a random note here…the Lions have allowed 684 yards to tight ends, the most in the league. The Bengals have allowed the second-most, but have not allowed a TE to score a touchdown. Like I mentioned, the Lions have allowed 11. So, that’s a crazy stat and maybe one that will change soon, so you might want to look at Anytime TD props for TE going up against Cincinnati.
Our OptaAI props have Dulcich down for 36.96 receiving yards, but I really do believe that the matchup and game state are favorable for him.
Kendre Miller (NO) Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (-112)
Speaking of game state, I like this one for Miller. The Browns are turning to Shedeur Sanders in this one with Deshaun Watson in concussion protocol. The Saints haven’t led much this season, but Alvin Kamara only has four carries when New Orleans does have a lead. On the flip side, Miller has 19. Travis Etienne only has one, but he does have 11 catches when they are trailing, so that suggests to me that they view him as a receiving back.
The Saints are out to -3.5 in this one and the waves of sharp money and the post-Watson injury adjustment do look favorable for New Orleans in terms of having a lead. Miller is the guy that Kellen Moore has trusted the most in that scenario and I could see him getting well over 12 attempts here. In fact, in the only win for the Saints, he had 20 carries. That’s the only game he went Over this number.
At time of writing, DraftKings was -112 on 12+ rush attempts, +187 on 14+ rush attempts, and +389 on 16+ rush attempts. If the Browns are as hapless as we think they could be with Shedeur at the helm, perhaps a Miller carries ladder pays handsomely.
Tory Horton (SEA) Under 1.5 Receptions (+135)
Horton has picked up eight receptions this season. Only one of them has come in a game that the Seahawks have won. I’m not saying that they are a lock to win on Sunday, pardon the pun with Drew Lock at QB, but Horton is a deep threat, Hail Mary-ish type of guy that you are hoping can spring free for a big play.
Horton played 43 snaps in the 34-17 loss to the Bears. He played 39 snaps in the 17-14 overtime loss to the Broncos. He’s gotten some reps in blowouts, with 31 snaps in the 20-3 win over KC and 22 in the 31-7 win over Arizona. If Seattle does blow out Arizona here, perhaps Horton does get more opportunities, but it’s pretty clear that Mike MacDonald and his offensive coaching staff don’t really trust him.
Visit the NFL Hub for all of our Week 9 NFL content and see more NFL Player Prop Picks on our Pro Picks page.
