🏈 Da Bears.
I am somewhat embarrassed to admit I did something this week that I’ve never done before: I rewatched a Bears game.
Usually once is enough, in good times and bad. But I had to see the Bears’ 34-17 win over Seattle on Monday Night Football again just to believe it.
Chicago is back in primetime tonight (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) against the Bucs, who arrive at Soldier Field as 6-point underdogs.
So I think Matt Youmans was talking to me — and many others — when he wrote:
“I’ve always liked the angle of betting against a popular public team after an impressive Monday night win. Everyone watched the blowout and almost everyone loves the Bears now.”
And then there is Wes Reynolds:
“The market has been like the ‘Superfans’ on Saturday Night Live. ‘Da Bears. Da Bears. Bears. Bears.’ When I read things like that, that is time to sell a little bit high on the Bears.”
I think you can tell where Matt and Wes are headed on Bucs–Bears in their Best Bets columns.
» Matt Youmans’ Week 9 Best Bets — 5 plays
» Wes Reynolds’ Week 9 Best Bets — 9 plays
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More NFL Week 9 Best Bets
» Zachary Cohen — picks and player props
» Dave Tuley — takes on every game
» Dustin Swedelson and OptaAI — player props
» Adam Burke — first touchdown scorers
» Adam Burke — Survivor pool picks
» John Hansen — 15 player props (video)
» Steve Fezzik — Best Bet (video)
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Build Your Own NFL Card
OptaAI vs. Caleb Williams: The model projects 198.04 passing yards for the Bears quarterback against a listed total of 247.5. That’s a sizable gap — and a reason to check the current market before kickoff.
» See OptaAI’s NFL projections
BOLT’s Tank Dell angle: Over 15½ receiving yards against the Chargers is flagged with a 26.1% modeled edge.
» Explore BOLT’s player prop picks
More tools: Check the latest betting splits, advanced matchup numbers and VSiN Pro Picks. And when reviewing Steve Makinen’s power ratings, look for the starred edges.
» Steve Makinen’s NFL Power Ratings
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🏆 What the Circa Million Leaders Think About Da Bears
Bears–Bucs was the most popular matchup on this week’s Circa Million cards: 2,430 of the 5,717 entries picked a side. The split was nearly even — 1,301 on Chicago -6 and 1,129 on Tampa Bay +6.
But we tried something new: a separate consensus of the 28 entries atop the overall standings. Only nine picked Bears–Bucs. Eight took the Buccaneers +6. Just one backed the Bears.
The Friday Football Invitational handicappers agreed: All six who selected the game took Tampa Bay.
The Top 28’s most popular selections were Vikings +3½ (12), Panthers +2½ (11) and Rams -4 (11)..
» See the full Top 28 consensus — and how it compares with the entire field
The overall Circa Million’s top pick was Saints -3, appearing on 1,802 cards. It was also the top Average Joe consensus selection and unanimous among the six Friday Invitational contestants who chose the game.
» Explore the contest picks and standings
$25 Million Survivor Sweat
Just 610 entries remain in Circa Survivor, chasing the $25,017,000 winner-take-all prize. Seattle (164), Detroit (108) and Kansas City (97) account for more than 60% of the remaining field.
In Circa Grandissimo, three entries remain for $7.7 million. Two are counting on Seattle; the other picked Kansas City.
🏈 No. 1 Goes Down. Two Unbeatens March On.
Notre Dame knocked No. 1 Miami from the unbeaten ranks, holding off the Hurricanes 31-24 in South Bend. Miami bettors collected at the closing +7.5.
UCLA improved to 9-0 with a 34-20 win at Minnesota as a 3½-point favorite. But here’s the record that really matters: The Bruins are also 9-0 against the spread. The only perfect record that really matters!
Utah remained unbeaten, beating BYU 28-20 and covering as a 4½-point favorite. Elsewhere, Oregon stunned Ohio State 41-28 as a 7½-point underdog, and Alabama won 31-13 at LSU as a 6-point underdog.
🏁 NASCAR: One Last Race
The Cup Series season concludes at Homestead-Miami Speedway, though the championship is almost a formality. Kyle Larson needs only nine points to clinch.
There’s still a race to handicap. Steve Makinen’s final simulation puts Chase Briscoe first and Larson second. His projected top five: Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Austin Cindric.
Longer shots to consider at +1200 or higher include Tyler Reddick, Cindric, Bubba Wallace and Joey Logano.
» Steve Makinen’s NASCAR Race Simulation
» NASCAR race previews and picks
Doc’s Sports: Strike Point Sports
Looking for more football selections? Explore the latest picks and free-trial offer from Doc’s Sports.
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