What to do with your futures bets for the big game on Feb. 12
We recently brought back the VSiN Help Desk feature that was really popular in the lead-up to Super Bowl LVI. With Super Bowl LVII on the horizon between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, the hedging questions have returned.
We’re getting a lot of questions about this and will try to get to each one individually, but there are some broad answers that can be given on this topic.
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I’ll preface all of this by saying that none of us here at VSiN can tell you exactly what to do. It depends on your initial investment, what a bet of that size means to you, bankroll size, level of risk tolerance, how you think the game will go and what you want to achieve. There is no perfect answer because the answer varies for each individual. However, I can suggest some of the options that are available to you.
Most importantly, SHOP AROUND for the best odds so you can maximize this and every other investment you make on the Super Bowl.
Do nothing – Just let it ride. Last year’s Super Bowl was a little different with the Rams favored by 4.5 points, so the odds to win were a lot different for each team. This year, we predominantly have a spread of 1.5 and a moneyline that has a much lower gap between the two teams. If you have strong convictions about the side you’re on or your initial investment and potential winnings aren’t grandiose in the big picture of your bankroll, this is an option you can choose.
Moneyline hedge pregame – This is the simplest route for those that do want to hedge because you can guarantee profit regardless of how the game ends up. If you’re sitting on an Eagles future, you can bet the Chiefs ML at plus money and just sit back and enjoy. If you’re sitting on a Chiefs feature, you can bet the Eagles at a short minus price and guarantee profit.
With this strategy, you have to understand that you are cutting down your potential profit on your initial futures investment, but you are going to come away with something. Some bettors advise against hedging because it cuts into the big prize at the end, but others will advocate for it because you aren’t letting a valuable position go to waste if the other team wins.
When making a pregame hedge, you have to establish the minimum that you want to win and bet accordingly. If you have $100 to win $1000 on an Eagles future, do you want to make at least $500 off of that investment? Bet the corresponding amount on the Chiefs moneyline. Do you still like the Eagles, but want to protect yourself and win at least $400 if the Chiefs win? Bet the corresponding amount on the Chiefs moneyline.
Just keep entering dollar amounts in the “Risk” box to see your potential payout in the “Win” box before submitting your bet to ensure that you are wagering the right amount to reach your goal.
Spread hedge pregame – This was a nicer setup last season with the Bengals greater than a field goal underdog (and they did cover), but this is still an option. You can bet the Chiefs +1.5 if you are sitting on an Eagles future. If the Eagles win by one, you’ll cash both bets. If the Chiefs win, you win your spread bet regardless of the final score.
The downside here is that you have to lay -110 on the spread instead of taking the Chiefs at plus money on the moneyline, but on the off chance the game does result in an Eagles win by 1, you hit the jackpot and cash everything.
I wouldn’t recommend taking the Eagles spread as a hedge if you’re holding a Chiefs future. You could run into a rare scenario where the Eagles win by 1 and you lose every bet. The difference in the moneyline price is pretty nominal at this point and may get even smaller, so it isn’t worth it.
Hedge in-game – This one carries a little bit more risk, but may be the preferred option for some bettors out there. If you’re holding a Chiefs future and they go up 7-0 or 10-0, you’re going to get the Eagles at a much better price than the pregame line. Similarly, if you’re holding an Eagles future and they get up early, you’ll get the Chiefs at a much better price.
This option gives you the chance to only hedge if you have to instead of cutting into your valuable position before the game. However, the risk is that you might be sitting on an Eagles future and the Chiefs go up 7-0 or 14-0 and then you don’t have any hedging equity in Kansas City because the cost of betting that big, live moneyline cuts too much into your initial investment if the Eagles come back to win.
The answer is dependent on your risk tolerance and how much you want to guarantee in profit, but those are going to be your four most common options. It is impossible for us to give a concrete answer to these questions because there isn’t one. Each situation is unique. Hopefully this provides a guideline for what is available to you and you are able to show some significant profit for what wound up being an excellent futures bet on either team.
