NFL Betting Splits
The NFL is the most heavily bet sport by far, dwarfing all other professional and college leagues in terms of public interest, ticket counts and overall money wagered. With 39 states (and counting) having legalized sports betting across America, millions of bettors are set to participate in NFL betting this season, many for the very first time.
The vast majority of bettors wagering on the NFL are considered “public” bettors. This means they are mostly betting for fun and making their weekly selections based upon gut instinct, bias and favoritism. Most public bettors lean toward favorites (take the better team!) and Overs (it’s more fun rooting for points!), while also leaning toward home teams, whoever has the better won-loss record and whoever played better the previous week.
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Unfortunately for the public, betting based on bias and emotion is a recipe for disaster and plays right into the sportsbooks’ hands. Instead, bettors should focus on cold, hard sports betting data to help them decide who and what to bet on.
Luckily for bettors, VSiN NFL Betting Splits for provided for Pro members. Bet Splits cut through the noise and media narrative by reporting the real and accurate percentage of bets and dollars made across the marketplace for all bet types. By learning how to analyze and interpret the bet splits, bettors can be confident in placing data-driven wagers with their head and not their heart.
Bet Splits can be confusing, so let’s provide an actionable blueprint on how to use them to your advantage.
Go Contrarian
Because the NFL is the most popular public sport, data-driven bettors look to bet against the masses. Why? Because more often than not, Average Joes come out on the losing end. After all, when the public loses, the house cleans up. And year after year, the sportsbooks make a killing. With this in mind, data-driven bettors look to bet against the public and place themselves on the side of the house.
In order to go contrarian, bettors should focus on the “bets” column located next to the “spread” tab. The goal is to look for games displaying the most lopsided ticket counts and then take the opposite side.
For example, if the Chargers (-3) are receiving 80% of spread bets against the Raiders, that means the public loves Los Angeles and is betting heavily in their favor. For contrarian bettors, this lopsided bet split would lead them to go the other way and take Raiders +3, who are unpopular, undervalued and receiving only 20% of spread bets.
A line of demarcation for contrarian bettors is 65/35. This means betting against teams receiving 65% of spread bets or more and betting in favor of teams receiving 35% of spread bets or less.
Keep in mind, contrarian value is heightened in primetime games due to the increased public participation in Sunday Night Football, Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football. So, if you see a team getting 35% of spread bets or less in primetime, that is a situation contrarians love to play.
Follow Sharp Action
Going contrarian is one piece of the data-driven puzzle. It’s a good starting point and foundational pillar. However, the ultimate goal is to not only bet against the public but also place yourself on the side of the sharps who win at a high rate and have the respect of the sportsbooks.
In order to identify sharp action, bettors must compare and contrast the “bets” column with the “handle” column. While the “bets” column shows you the percentage of overall, raw tickets each side is receiving, the “handle” column shows the percentage of overall money each side is receiving. The goal is to look for teams receiving a higher percentage of handle than bets, which means they are receiving a larger share of respected wagers.
For example, if a team is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars, that would qualify as a sharp bet split. However, if a team is receiving 65% of spread bets but only 40% of spread dollars, that would qualify as a public bet split worth fading because the team is popular with the masses but receiving far less cold, hard cash.
A good line of demarcation is 10%. This means searching for teams getting at least 10% more money than bets. Keep it simple and remember this phrase: “low bets, higher dollars.”
DraftKings vs Circa
One of the best features of the VSiN Bet Splits is the fact that they come from two different sportsbooks, DraftKings and Circa Sports. As data-driven bettors, it’s our job to analyze both sets of splits to get the clearest picture of where the public is and where the sharps are.
To figure out where the public is (and go contrarian), bettors should focus on the DraftKings splits. After all, DraftKings is one of the most popular sportsbooks in America. As a result, they take heavy action from Average Joe bettors across the country. So, if a team is getting 65% or spread bets or more at DraftKings, that symbolizes a popular public play worth fading.
On the other hand, Circa Sports is based out of Vegas and considered one of the sharpest, market setting books that cater to sharp bettors and take in (and don’t refuse or limit) smart money from pro bettors. With this in mind, if you see a team getting 45% of spread bets but 75% of spread dollars at Circa, that is further evidence of the desert wiseguys taking a position.
Word of Caution
Betting Splits are critically important to figuring out who the public likes and what teams sharp bettors are backing. Will every contrarian play or “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split win? Of course not. The key is to use bet splits as a piece of your handicapping puzzle but not the “end all, be all.” With this in mind, bettors should also consult the VSiN NFL Odds page and compare the betting splits to the line movement, ensuring that the splits and movement are on the same page and not contradicting themselves.
For example, if the Bengals are taking in 40% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars and have also moved from +3.5 to +3, that would be a data-driven play that “checks off all the boxes.”
Lastly, keep in mind that the bet splits are constantly updating every five minutes based on new action coming in. As a result, they can fluctuate throughout the day and week leading to Sunday.
Betting Splits are always the strongest later in the week, especially in the final 24-48 hours leading up to kickoff because that’s when the largest share of action is placed.
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