The first of two Monday Night Football matchups in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars at Highmark Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 3 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Jaguars vs. Bills

When: Monday, September 23rd at 7:30 pm ET

Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York

Channel: ESPN

Jaguars vs. Bills Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, September 21st. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Bills -230, Jaguars +190

Spread: Bills -5 (-110), Jaguars +5 (-110)

Total: Over 45.5 (-110), Under 45.5 (-110)

Jaguars vs. Bills Analysis

Since 1990, only four teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs. The sample size also happens to be pretty big, as 162 teams have gotten off to 0-3 starts since then. With that in mind, there’s a lot at stake for the Jaguars here. Jacksonville lost a tough one against Miami in Week 1, falling 20-17 in a game the team probably should have won. The Jaguars then followed that up with an 18-13 home loss against the Browns.

The fact that Jacksonville is 0-2 is probably a huge part of the reason that sharp bettors are taking the points with the Jaguars. This is a must-win game for Jacksonville, and a 2-0 Buffalo team could struggle to match the intensity. However, when you take away the motivation in this game, it’s hard to come up with other reasons to like the Jaguars.

This season, Jacksonville is just 29th in the league in Rush EPA per play (-0.242). The Jaguars haven’t been able to get Travis Etienne and the running game going, and I’m not sure that’ll change here. The Bills, who are sixth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.136), are a top-10 defense when it comes to Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.176). That said, Buffalo should be able to prevent the Jacksonville ground attack from breaking out here. That would then put a lot of pressure on Trevor Lawrence to play some near-perfect football, but the 2021 No. 1 pick hasn’t had a great start to the season. He has thrown for just 382 yards with a touchdown through two games, and his PFF grade of 73.0 is the lowest he has posted since his rookie season. On top of that, this Bills secondary has looked great this year. Buffalo is seventh in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.111), and cornerback Christian Benford has been tremendous.

Overall, it’s just a little hard to imagine the Jaguars scoring a good amount of points in this game, and I’m not sure the Jacksonville defense will be all that intimidating for Josh Allen. This season, the Bills are second in the NFL in EPA per play (0.219) and they’re first in Dropback EPA per play (0.534). People were worried about what this team would look like without Stefon Diggs, but Buffalo’s offense has been as explosive as ever. Through two games, Allen has completed a career-high 73.8% of his passes for 371 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. His passer rating and QBR are also higher than ever, and he’s still a threat with his legs. So, Allen should be able to terrorize a Jaguars defense that is just 21st in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (.100).

The one thing we have seen out of this Jacksonville defense is that it can do a decent job of containing the run. But James Cook is explosive and should still be able to break some runs in this game. And if he can’t, Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady will roll with a pass-heavy approach and utilize Cook a bit more as a pass catcher.

Let’s also not forget that this game will be played in Orchard Park. Under head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 41-9 straight-up and 27-21-2 against the spread at home. The Bills also happen to be 22-8 SU and 20-8-2 ATS in the first month of the season under McDermott.

Jaguars vs. Bills Player Props

James Cook Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Cook has had at least 17 receiving yards in every game this season. In Week 1, Cook had three catches for 32 yards in a win over the Cardinals. In Week 2, Cook had one grab for 17 yards in a blowout win over the Dolphins. He has been a big part of the passing game, and he probably would have had more than one catch if Buffalo wasn’t beating the brakes off Miami last week. Cook now faces a Jaguars team that has been a lot better about stopping the run than defending the pass. That doesn’t mean that Buffalo will completely abandon the running game. After all, the Bills have gotten some insane push from their offensive line, and it’s entirely possible they can run on this Jaguars team. But I do think we’ll see a lot of passing attempts from Allen in this game, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t utilize Cook as a receiver out of the backfield.

Cook also had 10 regular-season games with at least 17 receiving yards last year, and he also did it once in the playoffs. That means Cook has gone Over this number in 13 of his last 21 games.

Jaguars vs. Bills Pick

I won’t be be jumping on anything in this game, but I definitely have a lean on Buffalo. So, if you’re desperately looking for something here, lay the points. Based on everything we have seen this season, the Jaguars are going to have a lot of trouble defending the Bills. And Buffalo’s defense shouldn’t be tested too much by this Jacksonville offense.

The Bills are also riding high coming into this game. They’re looking like the favorites to win the AFC East. Meanwhile, we aren’t too far away from the wheels falling off for the Jaguars. It has been quite some time since Jacksonville played inspiring football, and Doug Pederson’s seat is getting hotter.

Lean: Bills -5 (-110)

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Zachary Cohen
Zachary Cohen
Zach has been writing about betting since he was a student at the University of Wisconsin, which is when he started working with StatFox — and contributing to the weekly Platinum Sheet. His work has since been featured for brands like Covers, Sports Illustrated and Tennis Channel. Zach is extremely passionate about the NBA, but he does a bit of everything and has found a niche as a tennis handicapper. Outside of work, Zach likes watching bad comedies and getting shots up in empty gyms — or spending time with his wife and dog.
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