In the first of the two Week 4 Monday Night Football matchups in the 2025 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets will clash in a battle of winless teams at Hard Rock Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Jets vs. Dolphins
When: Monday, September 29th at 7:15 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
Channel: ESPN
Jets vs. Dolphins Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, September 28th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Dolphins -155, Jets +130
Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-118), Jets +2.5 (-102)
Total: Over 45.5 (-105), Under 45.5 (-111)
RELATED: Check out our Jets vs. Dolphins matchup page!
Jets vs. Dolphins Analysis
When glancing at the VSiN betting splits page, it looks like there’s some sharp money on the Jets. There’s currently no shortage of Dolphins backers, but the books don’t seem eager to move the line. That type of freeze is usually meaningful. Also, more often than not, it feels like laying 2.5 with a home team is a bit of a sucker move. Well, for better or worse, I’m not above jumping on the fishy side.
Generally, I do try my best to align myself with the sharps. However, as I like to note rather often, the sharps do lose a good percentage of their bets. So, you won’t automatically lose when taking the other side. And if you’re going to go against them on something, it might as well be a fade on New York.
The Jets have been miserable defensively to start the year, as they’re 28th in EPA per play allowed (0.132). Their EPA per play on offense is also down to -0.040, which is wild considering they were unstoppable in Week 1. There’s just nothing that suggests this is a good football team on either side of the ball. And while the return of Justin Fields will make them a little more dynamic offensively, this is undoubtedly a game the Dolphins should win.
While Miami’s offense hasn’t gotten going this year, it’s only a matter of time before it starts to look decent. There’s too much talent in the group, even with Tua Tagovailoa struggling. Also, under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins are 5-0 against the spread when coming off back-to-back games in which 50+ points were scored. Miami has won those games by an average of 18.0 points per game. In that span, the Dolphins are also 5-0 ATS when facing teams that allow 27.0 or more points per game, and they have won those games by an average of 17.0 points per game.
Miami also happens to be 23-8 straight-up and 18-13 ATS when playing as a favorite under McDaniel, and they’re 18-7 SU and 16-9 ATS when facing teams with losing records. That suggests this Dolphins team can be trusted to take care of business when they’re expected to do so. And not only are they the stronger side on paper, but they also played last Thursday. That means two extra days of rest and preparation.
I just wouldn’t be surprised if Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle consistently get by a weak Jets secondary, and I’m not sure New York will have an answer for De’Von Achane either. On the other side of the ball, the thought of Bradley Chubb getting to work against Olu Fashanu is a little scary. Plus, Chop Robinson should have some success against Armand Membou on the other side. That could mean Fields will be under pressure rather often. Sometimes that’ll force him to take off, opening the door for him to make plays with his legs. But other times, it’ll lead to costly mistakes — with fumbles being very possible.
Jets vs. Dolphins Player Props
Lean: Tyreek Hill Over 64.5 Yards (-113)
The Dolphins likely won’t win this game without a productive day from Hill, and there’s really no reason he can’t get going here. Hill has had two games with fewer than 50 yards this season, so it’s not like he has been Mr. Reliable. However, the Jets are 30th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.319) this season, and a bad secondary can only hold down a player with game-breaking speed for so long. So, at some point, New York is likely to lose track of the speedster, opening up a big play that puts a huge chunk in this reasonable yardage total.
Our WR-CB matchup tool (powered by Fantasy Points) also happens to like this matchup for Hill. It has Hill’s matchup with Sauce Gardner as one of the week’s more favorable WR-CB matchups. Plus, Hill won’t see exclusively Gardner. He’ll also have plenty of time to work against Brandon Stephens, who he should be able to torture.
I’ll also add that Hill had 10 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown the last time he played the Jets in Hard Rock Stadium.
Jets vs. Dolphins Pick
Miami -2.5 was one of the first plays I put on the VSiN picks page this week. Not only do I believe the Dolphins are a better team, but they have a major rest advantage here. I also thought Miami showed some fight in last week’s loss to Buffalo, so I’m not sure this team is looking to give up on McDaniel. Instead, the Dolphins probably view this upcoming stretch as a way to salvage their season: vs. Jets, at Panthers, vs. Chargers. That’s two meetings with miserable teams, plus a home game against a team that doesn’t love playing on the East Coast.
Bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-118)
